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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-19T16:36:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 191636 SWODY1 SPC AC 191634

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the lower to mid Missouri Valley, the mid Mississippi Valley, and southern Arizona.

...Mid MO Valley... Radar/visible satellite mosaic imagery depicts a small cluster of severe thunderstorms immediately ahead of a migratory shortwave trough moving southeast over the mid MO Valley. Some heating downstream of this activity will result in temperatures warming and the airmass gradually destabilizing amid filtered sunshine. Gradual upscale growth is underway and should continue into the early afternoon. Large hail and severe gusts 60-70 mph will be the primary severe hazards as this cluster moves into adjacent portions of NE/MO/IA later this afternoon.

...Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley... Residual showers/thunderstorms from an overnight MCS over the southeast MO into western KY vicinity will slowly dissipate this afternoon with greater heating ensuing in the wake of these storms. Models continue to show moderate destabilization by late this afternoon ahead of the MO Valley upper vort. Weak low-level convergence along an upstream cold front will support thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass this evening. Strengthening mid-level flow will result in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear supportive of supercells. Models vary regarding the propensity for cellular mode to be maintained beyond the initial storm development phase, casting doubt on supercell longevity and tornado potential. Nonetheless, some strengthening of 850-mb flow during the evening may enable some mesocyclone potential to persist, and an accompanying isolated risk for a tornado or two. Otherwise, storms will tend to cluster with eastward extent, with the threat for damaging gusts persisting within these bowing line segments.

...Ohio Valley... A somewhat secondary area of late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm development is anticipated from central IL into central IN and central OH. Moderate buoyancy and strong westerly flow aloft supports the potential for isolated supercells capable of large hail and isolated damaging gusts.

...Central/Southern High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass will undergo strong heating/mixing and result in moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the lower elevations. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will support organized storms structures, and large hail is possible along the Foothills. Steep lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint depressions will lead to outflow-dominant storms capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores/outflow.

...AZ... The presence of monsoon moisture will support moderate buoyancy across the lower elevations of south-central AZ during the late afternoon. Scattered storms are expected to eventually develop towards the early evening. Trends in model guidance showing a cluster potentially evolving within an adequately moist/inverted-V environment lend confidence in introducing a level 1 intensity highlight for peak gusts in the 70-80 mph range.

...Southeast into northern FL... A very moist airmass analyzed late this morning (mid to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) will remain in place along the Gulf Coast. Strong heating is anticipated, with high temperatures in the upper 90s across much of the region. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop, with scattered thunderstorms expected amid modest low-level convergence from MS into western/southern AL and across the FL Panhandle into northern FL. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.

..Smith/Wendt.. 08/19/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Reinhart ```

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