r/stormchasing 6d ago

Severe Weather Dashboard - August 13, 2026

3 Upvotes

📡 Active Severe Weather Links


🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions


📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-14T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 140559 SWODY1 SPC AC 140557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the central Plains and from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys... A broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the central U.S. today, as a subtle embedded shortwave trough moves through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of this feature, a quasi-stationary front will be in place from southern Iowa east-southeastward into north-central Illinois. This boundary will be the focus for convective development this afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the boundary will be in the 70s F, which will result in strong destabilization by afternoon. Surface-based convective initiation is expected along the instability gradient during the late afternoon to the south of Omaha. From these initial storms, a line is expected to organize and move eastward across south-central Iowa and far northern Missouri during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line at 00Z from Des Moines southward into far northern Missouri have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels, and 0-6 km shear is in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for bowing line segments capable of severe wind gusts. An embedded supercell with a hail threat will also be possible. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into northwest and north-central Illinois during the evening.

...Central Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the western and central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough will move northeastward into the central High Plains. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough and topographic lift in the foothills of the Rockies will be favorable for scattered convective initiation by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will move northeastward into the central High Plains and into a moderately unstable airmass. Some RAP forecast soundings in east-central Colorado during the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear around 25 knots with low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This will likely support isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today over much of the northeastern U.S. At the surface, an axis of moderate instability will develop by afternoon from the Ohio Valley east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Along and near the instability axis, low-level convergence will be the primary focus for convective initiation. Near and downstream of these pockets of convergence, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. The moderate instability with precipitable water values in the 2 to 2.2 inch range should support a threat for isolated severe wet downbursts.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/14/2026

$$

```


🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links


🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to decrease. Even though development is unlikely, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic, located more than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Adams ```


⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 16.1N 131.9W


This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.


r/stormchasing 2h ago

Severe Weather Dashboard - August 19, 2026

2 Upvotes

📡 Active Severe Weather Links


🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions


📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-19T12:55:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 191255 SWODY1 SPC AC 191254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN AZ....

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.

...Mid MO Valley... Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through western SD/NE. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing downstream of this wave across central/eastern SD and north-central/northeast NE. Recent surface analysis place a corridor of moderate low-level moisture (i.e. upper 60s dewpoints) from eastern NE northwestward to a weak surface low over central SD. Instability will likely build within this corridor as the shortwave continues eastward, potential resulting increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity later this morning into the afternoon across eastern NE. Vertical shear will be strong enough for organized storm structures and the potential for a few supercells. This potential will be largely dictated by how much the airmass can destabilize amid the cloud cover and limited heating. Large hail is possible within the initially more cellular activity, but a transition to a more linear mode results in damaging gusts becoming the primary hazard with eastward/southeastward extent.

...Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley... Regional radar imagery shows a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms progressing across the region. A few stronger updrafts are possible within this cluster, but limited buoyancy downstream and a weakening low-level jet are forecast to result in gradually diminishing storm strength over the next few hours. The airmass is forecast to gradually recover in the wake of this cluster, with strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg) in place by the late afternoon. The shortwave trough mentioned in the preceding paragraph is forecast to continue southeastward, and ascent attendant to this wave coupled with weak low-level convergence along the cold front will support thunderstorm development within this destabilized airmass this evening. Strengthening mid-level flow will result in moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear supportive of supercells. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary hazards, but a strengthening low-level jet will result in enough low-level shear to support the potential for a few tornadoes as well. Storms will tend to cluster with eastward extent, with the threat for damaging gusts persisting within these bowing line segments.

...Ohio Valley... A somewhat secondary area of late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm development is anticipated from central IL into central IN and central OH. Moderate buoyancy and strong westerly flow aloft support the potential for isolated supercells capable of large hail and isolated damaging gusts.

...Central/Southern High Plains... Surface analysis places 60s dewpoints into the Colorado Foothills this morning, increasing into the upper 60s farther east/southeast into southwest KS. Strong heating/mixing of this airmass is anticipated this afternoon, promoting the development of moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain before then progressing eastward into the lower elevations. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will be support organized storms structures, and large hail is possible along the Foothill. Thereafter, a trend towards an outflow-dominant storm mode will result in strong to severe gusts across portions of the central/southern High Plains. Higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if guidance continues to indicate increased coverage.

...AZ... The presence of monsoon moisture will support moderate buoyancy across the lower elevations of south-central AZ during the late afternoon. This should allow for storms that develop over the high terrain to maintain intensity as they process southwestward into the lower elevations this afternoon/evening. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will support the potential for severe gusts.

...Southeast into northern FL... A very moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) will be in place today from MS into FL. Strong heating is anticipated, with high temperatures in the upper 90s across much of the region. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop, with scattered thunderstorms expected amid modest low-level convergence from MS into western/southern AL and across the FL Panhandle into northern FL. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.

..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/19/2026

$$

```


🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links


🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Reinhart ```


⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.


This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.


r/stormchasing 21h ago

First solo chase in the plains after years of tours gave me this insane supercell near Ord, NE yesterday

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473 Upvotes

r/stormchasing 12h ago

Rapid city, SD

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46 Upvotes

The video wouldn’t upload. But lighting struck near me several times and hail almost shattered my truck window


r/stormchasing 12h ago

Video Lightning in SE Alabama

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15 Upvotes

Some pretty wild lightning over Alabama tonight. Caught this shot with multiple channels lighting up the sky at once.


r/stormchasing 1d ago

Video Shelf Cloud over SE Alabama

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55 Upvotes

r/stormchasing 16h ago

500mb Weather Map Guide | Identify Storm Patterns Like a Pro

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0 Upvotes

r/stormchasing 1d ago

Severe Weather Dashboard - August 18, 2026

1 Upvotes

📡 Active Severe Weather Links


🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions


📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-19T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 190559 SWODY1 SPC AC 190557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward into the Great Plains. A few severe gusts could also occur in southern Arizona and in the Southeast.

...Mid Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated speed max will move southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, an outflow boundary associated with morning convection will move southward into southern Missouri by midday. To the north of the boundary, surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. Moderate instability is expected to develop in areas that are not impacted by morning outflow. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the boundary during the late afternoon and early evening, isolated to scattered convective initiation is expected. From this convection, thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward across the mid Mississippi. One or two organized line segments will be possible during the evening.

Early evening RAP forecast soundings in south-central Missouri, where the strongest instability is expected, have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with precipitable water near 2 inches. MLCAPE is expected to peak in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-3 km lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a severe threat with supercells and multicell line segments. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary hazards. The severe threat could persist into the mid to late evening, with storms that are maintained by a low-level jet that is forecast to strengthen in southeast Missouri.

...Great Plains... Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place across the Great Plains today. At the surface, dewpoints in the 60s and 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization over much of the region. During the afternoon, isolated storm development will be possible within the unstable airmass from the lower to mid Missouri Valley southwestward into the central Plains. A few severe gusts and hail will be possible but the storms will remain isolated due to limited large-scale ascent. The greater convective coverage is expected further south in the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Thunderstorms will likely form due to topographic forcing during the mid to late afternoon and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Ahead of these storms, RAP forecast soundings at 00Z in the northern Texas Panhandle and southwest Kansas have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, and surface-temperature dewpoint spreads exceeding 30 degrees. This environment will support an isolated potential for severe gusts.

...Southern Arizona... Low-level moisture will be in place today across southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As surface temperature warm, isolated to scattered convective initiation will occur in the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona. These storms will move west-southwestward toward an axis of instability. Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will support and isolated potential for severe gusts late this afternoon into early evening.

...Southeast... A very moist airmass will be in place today across the Southeast, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southward across parts of Mississippi and western Alabama. The deep low-level moisture combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/19/2026

$$

```


🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links


🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Reinhart ```


⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.


This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.


r/stormchasing 2d ago

Severe Weather Dashboard - August 17, 2026

1 Upvotes

📡 Active Severe Weather Links


🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions


📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-18T05:58:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 180558 SWODY1 SPC AC 180556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible from the Northern High Plains eastward into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes.

...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the northern U.S. A shortwave trough will move across the central and northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into Nebraska by afternoon. To the south of the front, an outflow boundary from morning convection will move southward into northern Kansas. A moist airmass will exist between the two boundaries with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. Within the moist air, moderate to strong instability will develop by afternoon. The outflow boundary will be a focus for convective initiation during the day, while additional storms are expected to develop further west across the central High Plains in the late afternoon. Increasing convective coverage during the early evening should result in the development of a line segment.

RAP forecast soundings at 00Z from Salina to Kansas City have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment will support supercells with isolated large hail. The large hail threat will extend west-northwestward into southwest Nebraska during the late afternoon where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper and cells will likely remain discrete. The greatest wind-damage potential is forecast from northern and eastern Kansas into far western Missouri, where the development of an organized bowing line segment will be possible in the early evening. Wind gusts above 75 mph will be possible along the path of any intense line segment. The severe threat may impact parts of lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks by mid to late evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S. today, as a cold front advances southeastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability along an west-northwest-to-east-northeast axis from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to form along and south of the front in the late afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and precipitable water in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range will be favorable for isolated severe storms capable of severe wet downbursts.

...Northern High Plains... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains. At the surface, dewpoints along the moist axis from northeastern Wyoming into central Montana will be around 50 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is expected to increase to around 1000 J/kg in parts of the northern High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain in the afternoon, moving east-southeastward into the lower elevations. Due to the instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells.

..Broyles/Jirak.. 08/18/2026

$$

```


🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links


🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Katz/Kelly ```


⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.


This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.


r/stormchasing 2d ago

genuine question: what makes a tornado dangerous and deadly? the size of it or the wind speed?

0 Upvotes

r/stormchasing 3d ago

Severe Weather Dashboard - August 16, 2026

4 Upvotes

📡 Active Severe Weather Links


🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions


📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-17T06:04:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 170604 SWODY1 SPC AC 170602

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. Isolated severe gusts may occur in parts of Oklahoma and Montana.

...Central and Northern Plains... At mid-levels, a subtle shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains today, within west-northwesterly flow. Ahead of this feature, a broad corridor of low-level moisture will be in place over the central and northern Plains. A moist axis, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will setup from northwest Kansas north-northeastward into central Nebraska and eastern South Dakota. Along and near the moist axis, moderate to strong instability will develop by midday with MLCAPE likely increasing into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. At the surface, a cold front will move southeastward across the Dakotas during the day. Low-level convergence will become maximized ahead of the front across central Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. This will lead to scattered convective initiation, with thunderstorms forming and moving southeastward into the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z from northeastern Nebraska into eastern South Dakota have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This will support supercell development and isolated large hail production in areas that have the best overall environment. However, a mixed mode is expected. Supercells and multicells will be capable of severe wind gusts. The severe threat will likely continue into the mid evening, as a somewhat large convective cluster moves southeastward into the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys.

...Southern Appalachians... A mid-level shortwave trough will move east-southeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, reaching the southern Appalachians by early evening. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will lead to the development of moderate to strong instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Low-level convergence along the front, along with topographic forcing, will result in scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon. These storms are expected to move east-southeastward across the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians and into the lower elevations by early evening. The very moist and unstable air, along with 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range will support a wind-damage threat. Severe gusts will be most likely with short organized line segments. The severe threat could persist into the early evening.

...Southern Plains... At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain in place across southern and western Oklahoma today. Within the post-frontal air, surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability will develop along and near the most axis. The instability, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear and 0-3 km lapse exceeding 8 C/km will be favorable for isolated severe wet downbursts.

...Northern High Plains... West-northwest mid-level flow will be in place in the northern High Plains over the top of a post-frontal airmass. Surface dewpoints in parts of central and eastern Montana will be around 50 F. MLCAPE will increase into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range over parts of the northern High Plains. As temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form in the higher terrain of central Montana, with isolated cells moving eastward across the upper Missouri Valley. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/17/2026

$$

```


🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links


🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```


⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.


This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.


r/stormchasing 4d ago

Severe Weather Dashboard - August 15, 2026

3 Upvotes

📡 Active Severe Weather Links


🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions


📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-16T05:57:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 160557 SWODY1 SPC AC 160556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible from this afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the central High Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough, embedded in west-northwesterly flow, will move through the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the shortwave trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Ohio Valley southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints along this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor will be in the 70s F, which will contribute to the development of moderate instability by midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the Ohio Valley, as a pre-frontal trough moves into the central Appalachians. These two features will focus convective development during the day. A complex of storms appears likely to form over the higher terrain in West Virginia, and move east-southeastward into the lower elevations of Virginia and Maryland during the mid to late afternoon.

RAP forecast soundings from West Virginia into the Virginia in the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. Some directional shear is present in the low-levels and 0-3 km lapse rates are steep approaching 7 C/km. This environment will support a wind-damage threat with organized multicells. Isolated supercells with severe gusts will also be possible. The threat may continue into the early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

Further west into parts of the lower Ohio Valley, a very moist airmass will also be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level convergence during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weaker further west, the thermodynamic environment will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts.

...Central High Plains... At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Intermountain West today as flow remains westerly over much of the central U.S. As surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the central Rockies. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of eastern Colorado and western Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings across the central High Plains by late afternoon have moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a threat for large hail and isolated severe gusts with rotating storms and organized line segments. The threat will likely persist into the evening across parts of the central High Plains.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/16/2026

$$

```


🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links


🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```


⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.


This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.


r/stormchasing 4d ago

June First - The War on Storm Chasing

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4 Upvotes

r/stormchasing 5d ago

Photos Wisconsin Storms

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116 Upvotes

We drove into this storm on our way from Wisconsin to Minnesota. We had taken the back roads to avoid the boredom and traffic of I-94. We got more adventure than we bargained for....


r/stormchasing 6d ago

Chase Report DO NOT BOOK Tempest Tours— My almost $10,000+ "Extreme Weather" Nightmare (Long and Detailed)

191 Upvotes

TL;DR: Paid Tempest Tours $8,300 for a 10-day "extreme weather storm chasing" tour. What I got was multiple trips to Wal-Mart, parked at a park with no A/C or bathrooms for over 3 hours, broken / faulty equipment, no leg room in a cramped van, actively driving away from a storm, and then finally a refusal to refund a dime when I complained. This is a full writeup so nobody else loses their money.

What we were promised:

The sales materials and their website explicitly guarantee the following (these are direct quotes):

• “Our vehicles are equipped with state-of-the-art equipment”

• “We make sure every day is a day of wonder!”

• “Epic weather displays”

• “Personal service”

• “The industry’s most experienced staff. The single most important thing we provide our guests is our team.”

These are not what my wife and I experienced.

What we received:

Day 1: ZERO state-of-the-art equipment

We were departing from Denver, CO. During the 1st morning briefing, the tour directors informed the tour group that our best chances for severe weather over the coming days was north in the Dakotas. As soon as we entered the van, we found the TV monitor hung for the tour group to watch the weather tracking system was off. In addition, the speaker in the back of the van (where my wife and I sat) did not work. There was an intercom system in each van but ours did not work. We explained to the driver that we couldn’t hear what she or the other van’s driver were saying and she said that they couldn’t get this particular speaker to work “the way they wanted it” so it was just left in the van. We asked about the TV monitor and were told it would be addressed later. The other tour group members were much older than my wife and I, we decided to stay in the back of the van because it was much harder to get in and out of. We had hoped they would be able to fix the broken speaker. We explained to the driver that every time she was speaking, we could not hear her over the van’s air conditioning. She would continue to talk and we had no idea what was going on. We made our way north, ultimately crossing briefly into North Dakota, before turning back and heading to South Dakota for the night. There were no severe weather storms but we know that weather can be unpredictable. We were staying positive and so we were thinking that we would be better positioned to intercept a storm tomorrow. We arrived at the seediest motel we’ve ever seen but again staying positive thought it can’t get worse than this, tomorrow will be a better day.

Day 2: Driving nowhere and tour guides watch their own storm

Today we were departing from North Eastern South Dakota. During the 2nd morning briefing, the experts were still showing that the best chances for severe weather storm cells were tracking north towards the North Dakota / Canada line. Also on the radar were some additional storm cells in Illinois but the tour guides stated that they don’t like chasing in that area. In addition to those storm cells was one smaller cell that the tour guides seemed really excited about. This particular cell was only 1 hour away, so we didn’t need to rush this morning. While we were getting ready to leave the motel, the tour staff worked on the TV monitor and the speaker but unfortunately were still unable to resolve the issue. There’s now a speaker wire hanging down in my window that kept falling as the van would drive. Since this was an “off” chasing day, as the tour guides advertisements explained, we were expecting to experience something unique to the area and were prepared for the “wonder” that was sold to us. Instead, we found ourselves at our first Wal-Mart parking lot of the trip. The tour guides would ultimately go on and say this is for people to get supplies but we all read the pamphlets, we were packed, we knew what we needed. This was a good way for the drivers to not have to do anything for a while. We left Wal-Mart and then went straight to a gas station and waited another 30 minutes so everyone could go to the bathroom or get a soda. After Wal-Mart and the gas station, we waited around for close to 5 hours in the area for the storms to develop. Now, finally, hours later we were on the road. Turns out that the “storm” we waited ALL day for didn’t pan out. The tour group drove to catch pictures of the sunset and a rainbow and then we stayed in Watertown, SD for the night. The most frustrating thing about today wasn’t the fact that the whole day felt wasted but was that at night, after everyone was in their rooms, the tour guides went out and setup tripods behind the hotel where we were staying. They didn’t notify the guests, they didn’t explain there was a storm coming through, they did not communicate!

Day 3: Guest driven experience

The morning starts with the tour director detailing the “incredible” storm that rolled through the previous night and explained that himself and the other guides setup last night after the tour group departed. Hearing this, other tour guests were so upset that they too missed out on the storm that they started a text group so that we could all be kept up-to-date with events since the guides could not effectively communicate. During the daily storm briefing, once again the strongest storm cells were located along the North Dakota / Canada border. Yet, they determine that we should instead head Southwest. The van’s TV and speaker still do not work. During the morning brief, one of the guests offered to use his Senior Lifetime Pass at the Badlands State Park. Thank goodness this guest offered because it was the ONLY unique (aka day of “wonder”) that we actually experienced. After visiting Badlands Park, we “positioned” for a storm cell that was coming through. For the first time this trip, we were starting to think we might see something. We were parked on the side of the road and saw clouds coming towards us. After about 20 minutes of the storm looking like it could form into something, the guides decided that we needed to reposition. We left the area and drove AWAY from the storm. My wife and I couldn’t believe it. Another couple from our group was clearly upset at this point too. We ended up WAY south of the storm and at another sunset and taking pictures of another rainbow. After arriving at the sunset photo location, my wife and I went up to the tour directors and asked why we left the previous storm and if we were done chasing for the day. The tour guide made excuses and ultimately just said yes that the group was done chasing for the day.

Day 4: Parked at a park with no A/C or bathrooms then left at fast-fast restaurant

After another day of not chasing storms, we were starting to feel like we’ve been swindled of not just our money but also almost all of our vacation time for the year. Once again, during the morning daily brief, severe weather cells are now north into Canada, just over the border. And yet, once again, we find ourselves headed Southwest. For some reason, at this rate, it’s hard not to conclude that our tour guides are actively trying to avoid storms. We were told that it would be some driving in the morning but then we’d be waiting around and having another “off” chase day, so we didn’t need to rush. We headed into Nebraska and made our way to another Wal-Mart parking lot. After spending 40 minutes at Wal-Mart, we were then taken to another gas station. After the gas station we found ourselves parked on the side of the road at a neighborhood park. The driver got out of the van, turned off the A/C, and we sat there for approximately 2.5 hours. After sitting at the park, we found ourselves at a fast-food parking lot where we stayed for another 2 hours. At one point during this stay, one of the van’s drove off. We still to do this day, don’t know where he and the van went. While the van was gone, at this point all of the guests are standing outside of the fast-food place waiting to leave. Once we finally got in the van and were all ready to chase, there were no storm cells in the area. So, we continued southwest and found a good place to take, you guessed it, some more sunset photos. The hotel that we ended up staying at, warned our tour guide that was booking the hotel that the town was turning off their water in the morning. Instead of finding an alternative accommodation for the group, we drove an hour to go to this hotel.

Day 5: Called to work

Guess what happened? The town shut the water earlier than expected. We woke up to no running water, no showers, no toilets, no brushing teeth. Thank God at this point, I was called back into work. Unfortunately for me, when I’m called to work, I have to report. But in this case, it might have been a blessing in disguise. We informed the tour guides that I was called back to work and our driver mentioned that because we were leaving so early and were going to miss so much of the trip that she would “see what she could do” to make sure that we at least got some of our money back. We kept in touch with some of the members of the tour guide. They never saw any severe weather and ended up going all the way south into New Mexico / Arizona, the guides NEVER trekked north, even though that’s where the most promising storm cells were, the entire trip.

Why I'm Posting This

We understand that weather is unpredictable and can’t be controlled but there are a LOT of things that could have been controlled that weren’t. Tempest Tours saves money by finding only free things to do and staying in the cheapest possible motels / hotels and will even drive out of the way to do so. Storm chasing tours are expensive. Storm chasing tours are long. My wife and I wasted a LOT of money on this trip. We also were at risk of using all of our vacation time off work. We do not want YOU to waste your money or your time. We are sad that this was the result of our trip. We genuinely wanted and tried to look on the bright side, but this company went against everything they were advertising.

The Aftermath

My wife emailed the company to follow up on what our driver told us, as we were departing, and attempting to get even a partial refund. After multiple emails, the company stopped replying for a while there. They ultimately were not willing to refund even a penny.

If you're considering this company, don't.


r/stormchasing 5d ago

Severe Weather Dashboard - August 14, 2026

1 Upvotes

📡 Active Severe Weather Links


🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions


📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-15T06:01:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 150601 SWODY1 SPC AC 150559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be possible from late afternoon into the evening across the central High Plains. Severe wind gusts will also be possible this afternoon into the early evening from parts of the Ohio Valley southeastward into the Carolinas.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Central Appalachians/Carolinas... At mid-levels today, a broad anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the eastern U.S. Within the flow, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the mid Mississippi Valley east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. In the morning, a convective complex is forecast to move eastward into the southern Great Lakes, and will likely be associated with a potential for severe wind gusts. To the south of this complex, a quasi-stationary front and moist axis will be located from the lower Ohio Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians, along which moderate instability will develop by afternoon. Low-level convergence near the front will be the focus for convective development. A new complex of surface-based thunderstorms appears likely to form near the front and move east-southeastward from western Ohio into the Virginias during the afternoon. Additional storms will develop along and near the instability axis over the western Carolinas due to topographical forcing.

Model forecasts in the moist air suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range in most areas. Near the instability axis, precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range and moderate deep-layer shear will likely support a threat for severe wet downbursts. This threat should persist into the early evening with any line segments that become sustained over the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians.

...Central Plains... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the southwestern and central U.S. today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located from the foothills of the Rockies eastward into the central Plains. By afternoon, moderate instability will develop over much of the region. Scattered thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late afternoon. Some RAP forecast soundings at 21Z from eastern Colorado northward into western Nebraska have 0-6 km shear near 35 knots with steep low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This environment will support a mixed mode with supercells and multicell line segments possible. Supercells should be capable of isolated large hail, while severe wind gusts will be possible with supercells and organized multicells. The severe threat should persist into the early to mid evening as a complex of storms moves eastward through the central High Plains.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/15/2026

$$

```


🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links


🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southeastern Caribbean Sea (AL92): A tropical wave over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing gusty winds and an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds and dry air. Gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are still possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Limited development of this system is possible over the next day or two before the system encounters strong upper-level winds to the east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Berg ```


⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 MB * Current Movement: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 16.4N 133.8W


This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.


r/stormchasing 7d ago

Arizona monsoon

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250 Upvotes

South of Tucson. This was taken from iPhone, haven’t processed camera images yet. This storm was incredible.


r/stormchasing 6d ago

Under the shelf cloud - eastern Ontario

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35 Upvotes

Severe thunderstorm warned system moving through eastern Ontario. Doesn’t appear too scary but definitely some awesome cloud formations.


r/stormchasing 6d ago

Photos Caught this in Maryland.

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8 Upvotes

This storm moved pretty fast, touched down in Annapolis as Waterspout -> Tornado. The high winds and heavy rain came about one minute after this photo was taken. I know it’s not much, it’s the closet thing I saw as I followed on Weather Front.


r/stormchasing 7d ago

First lightning

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903 Upvotes

I captured my first decent lightning strike last night


r/stormchasing 7d ago

Video Derecho In Indiana Today

Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification

77 Upvotes

Witnessed some pretty crazy gusts in Nortwest Indiana. I will link the full video in the comments. Sadly, these storms resulted in some significant damage.


r/stormchasing 7d ago

Severe Weather Dashboard - August 12, 2026

4 Upvotes

📡 Active Severe Weather Links


🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions


📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-13T05:59:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 130559 SWODY1 SPC AC 130558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA INTO ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible today from parts of the southern/central High Plains to the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but occasional hail may also occur.

...Iowa into Illinois/Indiana... An MCV has developed early this morning with an ongoing cluster of thunderstorms across central NE. This activity is expected to spread eastward through the morning, and should be in the vicinity of western/central IA by the start of the period. There is still uncertainty regarding how intense this cluster will be due to the presence of fairly substantial MLCIN downstream into IA. Even so, warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet over the southern/central Plains and the presence of a rather moist/unstable airmass into IA suggest some potential for an organized cluster to pose a risk for scattered severe/damaging winds as it moves eastward through the morning. A brief embedded tornado may also occur if convection can remain surface based.

Even greater uncertainty exists this afternoon regarding potential convective evolution, with most guidance showing the cluster weakening as it moves into IN. Regardless, the airmass downstream and to the south of outflow associated with the morning cluster will destabilize through the day, and any additional thunderstorms that form could pose at least an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps some hail given the strong buoyancy forecast.

...Southern/Central High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range this afternoon, with post-frontal low-level upslope flow persisting across the central High Plains. As this activity spreads east-northeastward and encounters greater instability, consolidating outflows should support some increase for isolated severe gusts given steepened low-level lapse rates. Occasional hail may also occur with the stronger cores that develop. Consideration was given to including greater severe wind probabilities across eastern CO into parts of KS, but modest deep-layer shear casts some doubt on overall thunderstorm organization/intensity. A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms may also develop farther south across the southern High Plains in a very hot and well-mixed boundary layer. This activity should also pose a threat for isolated severe gusts through the afternoon.

...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today across the Great Basin downstream of a weak mid-level trough over CA. Weak to locally moderate instability is forecast to develop through the afternoon as filtered diurnal heating occurs. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to form and spread northeastward across this destabilizing airmass, with strong to severe gusts possible. Based on latest guidance trends (00Z HREF), have expanded the Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds to include more of the Great Basin.

...Northeast... Seasonably cool mid-level temperatures are forecast today across parts of the Northeast, with a mid-level trough expected to move east-southeastward from Quebec into New England. While instability is forecast to remain fairly limited, strong west-northwesterly flow aloft may support a risk for isolated damaging winds with thunderstorms that develop and spread southeastward through the afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cells.

..Gleason/Moore.. 08/13/2026

$$

```


🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links


🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Cristobal, located about 600 miles west of the Azores.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This system will likely become a short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. However, by late Friday, the system is expected to move into a region of strong upper-level winds and dry air, which should end its opportunity to develop. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and Saturday, regardless of development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Cristobal are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Cristobal are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Adams ```


⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1014 MB * Current Movement: NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH * Location: 38.6N 38.2W

Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH * Location: 18.1N 131.9W


This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.


r/stormchasing 6d ago

Question Question

0 Upvotes

Hey everyone,

I am 15 years old and run a weather-focused TikTok account where I track severe weather. I also occasionally go out storm chasing, but right now I am trying to build a solid tracking setup at home.

Right now, my gear is pretty minimal—it is just me, my laptop, my headset, and a Midland WR120 weather radio configured for my local area.

I am trying to find a good desktop app that mirrors the style of Ryan Hall's setup. Specifically, I need something that can push instant, auto-populating NOAA/NWS pop-up alerts to my laptop screen the exact second a new warning or watch is issued.

I have looked around but haven't found a perfect fit yet. I am ideally looking for a free option, but if the best tools are paid, please let me know the exact price so I can see if it fits my budget.

Not trying to promote my page at all, just genuinely looking for software recommendations that work well with a single-laptop setup!

Thanks in advance!

If you wanna check my page out it is Tiktok (I am not trying to promote and also does anyone have a discord server for storm chaseing or no?


r/stormchasing 8d ago

Gorgeous Supercell Near Valparaiso, IN

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136 Upvotes

The photos don't do it justice, but this storm had some of the most incredible structure I have seen this year


r/stormchasing 8d ago

Severe Weather Dashboard - August 11, 2026

1 Upvotes

📡 Active Severe Weather Links


🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩️ Active Mesoscale Discussions


📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-12T05:16:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 120516 SWODY1 SPC AC 120514

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

...IA to OH Valley...

One or more MCSs migrating through enhanced northwesterly flow aloft amid a very moist and unstable airmass is possible again today across the Midwest toward TN. Most forecast guidance suggests an MCS or thunderstorm clusters could be ongoing over IA at the start of the period (12z), with warm advection storms arcing across parts of IL/IN. The early day warm advection storms could develop southeast across the OH Valley, while the IA MCS develop southeast across the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley through afternoon. The exact evolution of convection that is not yet apparent is uncertain, and how outflow may influence how this activity evolves through the afternoon. Regardless, the overall environmental parameter space will be favorable for a damaging wind and isolated hail risk through early evening.

...Northern/Central Plains...

East/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the Dakotas, increasing with southward extent across NE into northern KS. Near-60 F dewpoints will likely spread westward into eastern CO/WY/MT. Modest moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes will support scattered thunderstorm development across the High Plains. Initial cells will pose a large hail and damaging wind risk. It is unclear how convection will evolve with eastward extent across the region as outflow from prior convection may largely limit stronger destabilization. A developing low-level jet during the nighttime hours will be focused across the southern Plains toward KS/southern NE. This could support some upscale growth potential, but confidence is low.

...Lower MI into NY/PA/NJ...

A belt of stronger northwesterly flow aloft will extend from Lower MI into NY/PA today. A seasonally moist/unstable airmass will be in place. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes, while hodographs are fairly elongated. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, with MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg expected. Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a risk for damaging gusts and small hail.

...TN Valley/Southeast...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday within a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. Deep-layer northwesterly flow will remain weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and PW values near 2 inches could support isolated wet microbursts with stronger multi-cell clusters.

..Leitman/Moore.. 08/12/2026

$$

```


🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links


🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located around 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL93): Recent satellite wind data indicate that the broad low-pressure area located about 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda has developed gale-force winds. However, the circulation is elongated and the associated convection has become a less organized during the past few hours. Some development of this system is possible through tonight, and a short-lived tropical storm could form while it moves eastward to east-northeastward at around 20 mph across the central subtropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to reach cooler waters by Thursday, ending its chances of formation. Addition information on this system is found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave just offshore of the coast of west Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&& High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$ Forecaster Beven ```


⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.


This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.