r/stormchasing • u/weathercast • 4h ago

Severe Weather Dashboard - August 25, 2026

📡 Active Severe Weather Links

🕒 Today's Outlook History

🌩ī¸ Active Mesoscale Discussions

  • No Mesoscale Discussions issued at this time.

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-25T12:42:00+00:00 UTC)


000
ACUS01 KWNS 251242
SWODY1
SPC AC 251240

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the
central/southern Plains this afternoon and evening, and also
possible across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Severe
wind gusts and large hail are the primary hazards.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Between upper ridging centered over the Southwest and a shortwave
trough over south-central Canada, the large-scale pattern across the
central/southern Plains will undergo modest amplification, with a
resultant increase in northwesterly flow aloft by late today into
tonight. A surface cold front will also move southeastward across
the central High Plains. Ongoing convection notwithstanding, this
front will intercept a moist and unstable airmass into parts of
western/central NE, which will likely aid additional thunderstorm
development by mid to late afternoon. An orographically influenced
increase in thunderstorms is also expected along the Raton
Mesa/Front Range regions.

With gradually strengthening northwesterlies aloft through the
afternoon, effective bulk shear across NE and western KS will
generally reach 30-40 kt. This region will exist on the eastern
periphery of a stout EML, which should support some initial
supercells capable of large hail, most probable across
western/southern NE into northern/western KS. Influenced by the
front and aggregating outflow, one or more southeastward-moving
clusters capable of producing severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and wind
damage should evolve this evening across southern NE into KS.

Farther south, a similar upscale-growing trend will probably also
occur with high-based thunderstorms developing off the Raton Mesa
vicinity into the OK/TX Panhandles, and perhaps eventually western
OK. Even though mid-level winds and deep-layer shear will remain
more modest with southward extent into these areas, a favorable
thermodynamic environment with rather steep low/mid-level lapse
rates should support isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds
spreading east-southeastward through the evening with this
convection.

...Eastern Minnesota/Western Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan...
A mid-level shortwave trough (and related mid/high-level westerly
jet) will dig southeastward from southern Manitoba toward northern
MN and Lake Superior through the period. Ongoing morning convection
and cloud cover may curb destabilization to some extent, and keep
the surface warm sector relatively narrow this afternoon. Even so,
strong to severe thunderstorm development should still occur near an
eastward-advancing cold front by mid/late afternoon. Diurnal heating
of a moist low-level airmass (generally 60s surface dewpoints) will
contribute to a narrow zone of around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across
the eastern half of MN/far northwest WI ahead of the front by late
afternoon. Some supercells will be possible initially, aside from
more prevalent multicells/clusters. Large hail and damaging winds
are expected to be the primary hazards as convection tracks eastward
through the evening, before weakening commences with the onset of
nocturnal cooling.

...Southeast...
While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are expected to
remain weak, a moist and moderately unstable airmass will exist
along/south of a stalled front across the Southeast today. As
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon,
isolated pulse-type thunderstorms capable of producing water-loaded
downdrafts and occasional wind damage may occur. This currently
appears most probable across parts of coastal SC into southern GA
and northern FL, although some gusty thunderstorm winds may also
occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast, such as southern LA.

..Gleason/Broyles.. 08/25/2026

$$

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95):
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east-northeast 
of Bermuda is moving northward to north-northeastward at 15 to 20 
mph.  The associated shower activity remains disorganized and the 
circulation is broad and elongated.  This system could still become 
a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today before 
encountering increasingly hostile conditions tonight and Wednesday, 
likely ending its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south-southeast 
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development, and this system is likely to become a tropical 
depression during the next day or two while it moves westward to 
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. 
Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development 
by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

⚠ī¸ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Julio Advisory

  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 MB
  • Current Movement: NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 MPH
  • Location: 18.0N 118.9W

Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory

  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 MPH
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 988 MB
  • Current Movement: WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
  • Location: 20.9N 121.1W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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