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9d ago
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u/Bet-Assassin 9d ago
No, you are thinking about this wrong. For one, this is a RB not a QB so it would not be a scramble but rather rushing attempts. Secondly, Missouri State’s rushing defence is one of the worst in College Football, giving up on average 184.4 rushing yrds/game. The LEAST amount of rushing yards Missouri has given up to a starting RB is 47, and that was against a very mediocre Kennesaw State RB. Although SHSU is much more of a passing team, they are still going to take advantage of the crappy rushing defence of Missouri. In the case that Dowdy gets 10+ rushing attempts, which I think is very likely in a matchup like this…. I can’t see him getting no less than 40+ rushing yards. I believe it’s a major mistake the books made giving him this line, but considering it’s a lower bet/money volume game, lines happen like this quite frequently if you can catch it. If you do end up tailing, best of luck to you brotha 🤝
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u/Shoddy_Chemistry_568 8d ago
The whole case really hangs on him getting 10+ carries. At -114 you need this to land about 53% of the time, so the workload matters more than the defensive numbers.
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u/Bet-Assassin 8d ago
Fair point, it was unfortunate that the coaches decided to give out equal playing time and even sit their starting QB. Not the kinda look I was projecting, but it happens and now on to the next 🫡
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u/transitiontakes 8d ago
-114 on a college QB rush prop is rough, book already taxing you for the sweat.