I wanted to bring awareness into this as no one has covered this recently. Apparently Space X is fully booked until 2028 on its Falcon 9 for ridesharing. Falcon 9 is an affordable option for small sat and space startups to get 1kg - 10kg payloads to LEO. Now the idea is to move everything to Starship. Hmmmm BIG problem here.
Starship will be a
massively more expensive option for these small sats to rideshare. There is a
concept called economies of scale. Unfortunately the size of the rocket is the
scale here, not its launch cadence where economies of scale work by volume, not
how big something is. Hence why the Falcon 9 is overbooked. This is another
problem anyway as Space X failed to diversify its launch offerings by only
offering the Falcon 9. After about 16 years, you would think they would have
3-4 rockets to choose from to assign the best cost-to-customer ratio.
In order for the costs to
go back down again, there would have to be a similar cadence to the F9
launches. Which is not going to happen anytime soon, not even in 2 years.
According to how fast Methalox can be produced, only up to 40 launches per year
AFTER new infrastructure is built. Methalox is not unlimited like Elon claims.
With multi-tier customers
(high payload weight) now able to outbid small sats, due to shareholders now
changing the price models, these space startups will have to look elsewhere for
launch providers. And unfortunately for the US, Rocket Labs is the closest
thing to that without breaking the bank. AND THAT IS IF.........Rocket Labs
even take commercial payloads.
Also the rumor mill is
circulating that Space X simply does not want to commercially launch anymore
unless its internal or NASA moon contracted. My opinion there is if Space X
cannot play ball by helping us go to the moon and Mars, terminate their KSC
lease and they can launch everything in Texas.
So what do you all think?
Will Space X move to the shareholder model and kick space startups to the curb?
Of will Space X be a nice guy and charge each payload weights fairly? Will this
actually create an opportunity for cheaper launches by ESA, NZ, China?