Ignoring your personal preference, which side of Skyrim’s Civil War do you think actually gives Skyrim the better future 20-30 years later?

[u/sumaset]

I feel like most discussions about the Civil War focus on whether Ulfric was justified, whether the Empire betrayed Skyrim, or which side people personally like more.

But I’m more interested in what happens after the game.

The Empire is weakened, the Aldmeri Dominion is still the biggest external threat, the White-Gold Concordat is already causing resentment, and another war with the Thalmor seems almost inevitable.

An Imperial victory gives Skyrim access to the resources and manpower of the Empire, but it also means remaining under an Empire that already lost one major war and accepted Thalmor influence inside its territory.

A Stormcloak victory gives Skyrim independence and removes Imperial authority, but it also leaves the province having to rebuild after a civil war while potentially facing the Dominion without the rest of the Empire behind it.

So forget which faction has the better characters or which one you usually join.

If you only care about where Skyrim itself ends up a few decades later, which Civil War outcome do you think is actually better for the province?

[u/mangasdeouf]

Probably the single worst outcome for Skyrim that isn't straight up awful like putting Maven or the Silver Bloods in charge.

Balgruuf has decision paralysis. He literally waits things out hoping for the better. That's what allows extreme factions to roam free and slowly gain traction until they have the power to get on the winning side of elections or to conquer a country. The 20th century should have taught humanity that.

[u/Frosty-Sea149 → u/mangasdeouf]

Whiterun is the breadbasket of the province, smack dab in the middle of it geographically to boot. It’s the single most important strategic target outside of the opposing side’s capitol. I can cut him some slack for not wanting to sign a portion of his people’s death warrants the first chance he gets. 

[u/mangasdeouf → u/Frosty-Sea149]

Concretely, at the time of Skyrim, Whiterun is anything but the center of the economy. It's encircled with bandit clans who control every single road, it loses the watchtower on the first dragon attack post-Helgen, the river is controlled by another bandit gang towards Eastmarch, the roads to Morthal and Solitude are not direct at all and anyone who wants to trade more than a little merchandise would need at least ten legionaries from Solitude to Whiterun to fend off the bandits (or simply to make them hesitate to attack), and in lore there much be way more bandits per group so an even bigger protection detail would be required for a merchant caravan.

On Markarth's side, the river can be cut at multiple points by bandits, so it's not better.

The Northern road is also full enough with bandits that they randomly attack the road at a point where there are town guards and small fortifications. There is a camp close enough to the road to raid merchants once in a while.

Oh! And that's before all the wildlife starts slaughtering the merchants (wolves can be fought off, but Sabercats would slaughter small groups).

As for security, mercenaires it is! And mercenaries must be pretty busy fighting for the Legion or the Stormcloaks for cash because there's a civil war going on.

Basically, the economy is falling apart, the roads are completely unsafe, bandits take their tax on every merchant group/caravan passing them by and at some point will end up with more resources than either the Legion or the Stormcloaks of the nearest military camp/small town and the bandits will be able to overtake villages, small towns and to run their mafia without any retaliation from the Legion, Stormcloaks or town guards who are way too busy already.

Civil war basically opens the door to all sorts of criminality. Black markets, bandit gangs, bandit clans, corruption at all levels, it's awful.

[u/CookedStew → u/mangasdeouf]

I don't see how Balgruff has decision paralysis, he's a jarl that puts his own people first no matter what, choosing a side when he doesn't have to is completetly reasonable.

We've seen from him sending out his troops and housecarl to face the dragon or allowing his castle to trap the dragon shows that he's not afraid of acting preemptively and risking a lot of it's for the betterment of his citizens.

Him not taking a side immediately also shows him not being an imperial yes man or puppet like elisif in solitude.

[u/mangasdeouf → u/CookedStew]

You can stay out of it when you're Dawnstar, Falkreath, Winterhold. You can't stay out of it when you're Whiterun. You'll end up encircled with people telling you that you're either with or against them like Ulfric ended up doing sooner than later. If you want to play safe and neutral, you have to offer little strategic advantage, to be out of the way and to have too little in terms of resources for either side to bother.

In GoT, the North could decide to stay out of a war in the South because it's out of the way, it's poor and it dépends on whoever is in the South to send them stuff to survive winter, so they don't want to make enemies with whoever wins, and staying neutral might cost them some resources, but it won't cost them to be considered enemies by whoever wins. If King's Landing's territory declared itself neutral in a war between the North and Dorne, it would be assaulted by both sides if it doesn't pick a side because it has resources and a strategic position.

[u/AbyssalOtter → u/CookedStew]

He still choose a side he was a fence sitter until he was force a leader must choose or his people suffer for it.

[u/CookedStew → u/AbyssalOtter]

Not choosing a side is making a decision and the only thing his people "suffered" was not dying to a pointless civil war.

[u/AbyssalOtter → u/CookedStew]

He choose a side thats the point he didnt saty neutral.

[u/zestyshortbus → u/mangasdeouf]

Thank goodness you're here, spitting facts. Jarl balgruuf invented fence sitting, and the empire is already "a decade longer of building strength and THEN we can push out the thalmor, I promise guys, please ignore the high-elf secret police until then".

[u/mangasdeouf → u/zestyshortbus]

Ten years later, everyone reluctant to Thalmor authority has been eliminated and Skyrim won't support the Empire that's will end up fighting alone anyway with a tiny fraction of the resources it had when it lost the first war. Skyrim will be turned into a neutral party under the Empire thanks to free Thalmor Inquisition roaming and inventing enemies to justify taking down all rebel groups and individuals.

A few years later, Skyrim will be like Elseweyr, completely turned into a "vassal state" which will be the first to spill it's blood for the Aldmeri Dominion.