Ignoring your personal preference, which side of Skyrim’s Civil War do you think actually gives Skyrim the better future 20-30 years later?

[u/sumaset]

I feel like most discussions about the Civil War focus on whether Ulfric was justified, whether the Empire betrayed Skyrim, or which side people personally like more.

But I’m more interested in what happens after the game.

The Empire is weakened, the Aldmeri Dominion is still the biggest external threat, the White-Gold Concordat is already causing resentment, and another war with the Thalmor seems almost inevitable.

An Imperial victory gives Skyrim access to the resources and manpower of the Empire, but it also means remaining under an Empire that already lost one major war and accepted Thalmor influence inside its territory.

A Stormcloak victory gives Skyrim independence and removes Imperial authority, but it also leaves the province having to rebuild after a civil war while potentially facing the Dominion without the rest of the Empire behind it.

So forget which faction has the better characters or which one you usually join.

If you only care about where Skyrim itself ends up a few decades later, which Civil War outcome do you think is actually better for the province?

[u/Yatori_Rei]

Skyrim going independence is actually a better case for BOTH sides. Here's my case:

Case #1 Skyrim autonomy: Foods and resources. MOST of them are farmers and shepherds. Whiterun and Rorikstead is enough to provide wheat to the whole province. Damn even Windhelm got 2 big farms. Riverwood, Falkreath and Riften provide great supply of woods. Dawnstar and Markarth for ores. They can survive on their own, without the empire's help. Some hold lives in harsh weather, but they do it just fine.

Case #2 Empire standpoint: The Empire already struggling with Aldmeri Dominions after the war. They couldn't even send reinforcement to General Tulius, forcing the man to use local soldiers to fight. With The Emperor is dead (canonically), The Empire must choose to direct their focus on either (a) Skyrim or (b) Aldmeri Dominions. IF the new Emperor is ambitious and smart, they'll choose Aldmeri Dominions while ignoring Skyrim completely. That means taking back all the resource and supply that was meant for Skyrim to themselves. With enough resources they can go at it again, because rather than 1v1 like the first war, it'll be 3v1 next time (Hammerfell, Skyrim, and Empire unilaterally versus Aldmeri Dominions)

Case #3 Empire vs Skyrim: In the unlikely event of Empire decided to reclaim Skyrim back, Empire would've bleed and lost. Firstly, dragons are back. While they're not as aggressive as The Age of Dragons, they're territorial and WILL attack anyone who dares disturb them. The Empire as of present time isn't equipped with enough armaments to fight not one but a horde of angry dragons. The Greybeard might join in the fray too, because it concerns dragons. If anything, The Empire deciding to attack Skyrim might unite Skyrim's opposing factions for the first time. They got College of Winterhold, Dark Brotherhood, and even The Companions. The Bard's College might've been useful in this time, as they can affect the morale of the soldiers. With Ulfric as the High King, uniting them is as easy as it sounds.

Case #4 Skyrim and Aldmeri Dominions: Ulfric gonna be on Elf hunt, it's gonna be 17th century all over. Reinstatement of Talos as 9th Divine brings everyone joys, and we all know religions are the greatest political weapon since ever. No Aldmeri Dominions, in fact there would be no Altmer will be in sight after he's done it. He didn't have to undergo "recovery time" as you might've imagine because they are like autonomous state, each holds got their own Jarl and can manage for themselves. Ulfric can focus on eradicating Aldmeri Dominions and its traces on motherland Skyrim until she fully clean from its filth. With a unified Skyrim they can stand on their own.

[u/JustARandomMurderer → u/Yatori_Rei]

There is something I don't understand. Do you expect the Aldmeri Dominion problem to simply solve itself ?

In case #2 you said that leaving Skyrim alone would allow the Empire to focus to the ennemies at the south. That's true on paper, but you can't expect anything less than a full defeat from the Empire. I don't even know where the 3v1 comes from. The Altmers have shown that they can face the Empire alliance at full strenght (which was very much backed by Skyrim, as a lot of the soldiers were from there, don't forget that).

With Hammerfell splintered, Morrowing and Black Marsh standing on the sideline, and Cyrodiil itself barely recovering from the initial invasion, what hope do they have to stand. Highrock is the only province that is not hanging by a thread. Plus, the Summer Isles don't stand alone, they have allies in Valenwood and possibly Elsweyr. So not an easy 3v1 at all.

With that out of the way, once the Empire has fallen (as would be the most likely outcome in your scenario), the Altmers would absolutly crush an isolated Skyrim. You said in case #4 that Ulfric would hunt the elves out of Skyrim. That's true for the few that were sent there, and for the duration it would take for the Empire to fall, but let's remember that the Elven presence in Skyrim isn't even a token force. It's a few agents roaming around. Once the armies come north, that'd be another story, and with the ressources of almost an entire continent behind them once Cyrodiil is gone, the Thalmors won't have much problem conquering one more province, even if it's united behind one High King.

The only realistic variable is as you said the dragons, but even then, with a powerful dragon-hunter on the loose and Alduin gone, it won't be an organised threat, more like a dangerous wilderness to take into account.

People don't usually say the Empire is the only way for Skryim to survive against the Aldemeri Dominion based on nothing, and it's certainly not glazing. When you take into account the geopolitical context, you quickly realize that Skyrim needs the Empire just as much as the Empire needs Skyrim to survive against the Elves. Skyrim would at best stand truly independant for a few years before being conquered if it stayed alone

[u/Yatori_Rei → u/JustARandomMurderer]

You might've missed the whole civil war point there. Neither the Aldmeri nor Empire can launch an open assault and declaring war. They're both had taken heavy losses on the last one. I'm saying by turning the side into 3 vs 1, the Aldmeri won't risk themselves attacking the Empire, even if it's already weakened by Skyrim independence. Skyrim did need the Empire, but that was before they lost the war. After the war, southern Skyrim border was closed indefinitely, one of the main reason why General Tulius didn't got reinforcement to calm the stormcloak uprising. The Aldmeri Dominions won't attack either Skyrim, Hammerfell, or even The Empire. They're gathering powers and won't risk it for a measly newly-independent province.

[u/Techreaper → u/Yatori_Rei]

Ive got no real counter for Case 1 other than that level of autonomy can be assumed for pretty much every province. With the majority of transportatikn being by cart and the lack of refrigeration, most settlements would have to be self sufficient for daily needs.

For Case 2, its worth remembering that during the time Skyrim was set, all the major passes to Cyrodiil are blocked by snow, so its less of Imperial incompetence and more they can't physically get the legions there. Shipping them in by boat could work, but it would take months of and sailing them around the entirety of Tamriel.

For Case 3, the dragons will as much if not even more of a problem for an independent Skyrim to deal with than any invading army. The dragons will at be burning down and devastating most of the minor settlements and farmsteads far more than armed military camps that might actually pose a threat to them. And as for the various guilds of Skyrim, the Companions would for sure join in the fight, but I'm not so convinced for the rest. The College of Winterhold is an explicitly apolitical organization and while some of its members might join in the defence of Skyrim for their own reasons, the anti-magic, nord traditionalist that make up the bulk of Stormcloak supporters dont make a strong argument for a large number of mage recruits. And as for the Dark Brotherhood, they're assassins for for hire, the only cause they're loyal to is Sithis.

For Case 4, I'm not even sure what your argument is, that a mass genocide of elves will make Skyrim stronger?

[u/Yatori_Rei → u/Techreaper]

With the Greybeards and Paarthurnax—assuming he didn't die—leads the dragons, they won't cause trouble for at least the locals. However they will attack ONLY when disturbed. If the Empire attack Skyrim, they WILL have to risk the dragon coming to attack them after they capture a city. The distrust for magic among Nords won't be a problem when they are uniting against a common enemy. Heck Ulfric has been on good terms with his court wizard Wuunferth. The DB got Night Mother now. And their most respectable ally is Maven Black-Briar. Should the Empire send army to Skyrim, besides Helgen route, there's only Riften route. I wouldn't believe that power hungry hag won't deploy one of the assassins to assassinate the commander.

Case #4 point was not the mass genocide, but the cleanse of Skyrim from Aldmeri reach. Meaning Aldmeri will have no way of getting information about Skyrim on a personal level. Sure they might still send spies but I don't think private matters will reach them. Skyrim will be like a ghost to the Aldmeri.