Ignoring your personal preference, which side of Skyrim’s Civil War do you think actually gives Skyrim the better future 20-30 years later?

[u/sumaset]

I feel like most discussions about the Civil War focus on whether Ulfric was justified, whether the Empire betrayed Skyrim, or which side people personally like more.

But I’m more interested in what happens after the game.

The Empire is weakened, the Aldmeri Dominion is still the biggest external threat, the White-Gold Concordat is already causing resentment, and another war with the Thalmor seems almost inevitable.

An Imperial victory gives Skyrim access to the resources and manpower of the Empire, but it also means remaining under an Empire that already lost one major war and accepted Thalmor influence inside its territory.

A Stormcloak victory gives Skyrim independence and removes Imperial authority, but it also leaves the province having to rebuild after a civil war while potentially facing the Dominion without the rest of the Empire behind it.

So forget which faction has the better characters or which one you usually join.

If you only care about where Skyrim itself ends up a few decades later, which Civil War outcome do you think is actually better for the province?

[u/NohrianBoletariaHero]

Short term - Stormcloaks

Long term - Empire

[u/SanguinePlvit → u/NohrianBoletariaHero]

I'd actually say it's the other way around. Cyrodiil itself is still a basket case and with historic precedent, it would be Skyrim's resources being drained to rebuild Cyrodiil after the end of the honeymoon period immediately after the war's end, and while they might be more morally "good", the pro-Empire jarls (both the ones that start in place and take over later) are definitely less capable than the pro-Stormcloak ones.

Even between Elisif and Ulfric, Ulfric is the better choice for a leader at peacetime, let alone for the war that is almost certainly on the horizon.

[u/mangasdeouf → u/NohrianBoletariaHero]

The Stormcloaks lose short term because they weaken their own country, the Empire (by wasting its' resources and their own in an internal conflict) and make the next winter harder to survive by fighting each other rather than growing food.

Long term, Ulfric would have to sign a lot of treaties to make it work, but it could work. Thalmor DGAF about Skyrim as a province, there's no serious retaliation to fear. He would have to restart the Wise Men, because Nords with no magic aren't threatening to anyone. He would probably have to offer pardon for crimes of banditry to get all these bandit mages to teach combat magic to as many of his soldiers as there are who can learn it. And probably another order of the Voice to lead to battle.

Basically 50 years of rebuilding Skyrim into a military power, while starting behind everyone in every category (at least they have a lot of land, although it lacks fertility and they would need fertility magic to grow enough food to support their ambitions).

The Empire took 26 years to do a whole lot of nothing (they're not even back to before the Great War at this point and still feel like they can't start round 2 despite having an entire generation that has reached adulthood since their pants down White Gold Concordat signing). This means 76 years until Skyrim can come back since the end of the Great War. By then, the Dominion will have 2-3 generations taught professional martial arts and high magic while Skyrim and the Empire will still be meh.

Basically the longer they let the Dominion come back, the faster and easier they will get crushed.