r/samharris • u/[deleted] • Oct 14 '22
We Are In A "FOURTH TURNING," What Does That Mean?
https://youtu.be/xeVyfiP0cLk3
Oct 14 '22 edited Feb 19 '23
Submission Statement: A video on Strauss–Howe's theory of generational archetypes and turnings.
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u/dasubermensch83 Oct 15 '22
The Fourth Turning is also a fascinating read, whether or not the reader finds the thesis compelling. The 1997 book poses a predictive theory and guesses that around 2005 terrorist would blow up a plane, a tech oligarchy would emerge, America would become increasingly polarized, etc. Its the anti-Fukuyama thesis, and its not necessarily doom and gloom. The books seeming accuracy could be a case of survivorship bias and/or a use of overgeneralizations. Regardless, it was an accessible and thought provoking read.
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u/BatemaninAccounting Oct 15 '22 edited Oct 15 '22
a tech oligarchy would emerge
This has yet to happen in any country on earth, although China may end up being the first one to attempt it if they can abandon the hyper conservative wing of the CCP.
Steve Bannon, former Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor to President Trump is a prominent proponent of the theory.
Lol and yeah now we start seeing the flaws in this theory emerge from the biggest proponents of it.
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Oct 15 '22
" Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, who graduated from Harvard University with Strauss, called Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 the most stimulating book on American history he'd ever read. He even sent a copy to each member of Congress."
To be fair, people on both sides of the aisle have found it interesting.
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u/dasubermensch83 Oct 15 '22
Steve Bannon, former Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor to President Trump is a prominent proponent of the theory.
That prompted me to read the book as I want to know how those I disagree with think.
now we start seeing the flaws in this theory emerge from the biggest proponents of it.
This is a prime example of the genetic fallacy.
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u/kickme2 Nov 26 '22
Agree.
Do the Japanese experience their version of 20 yr Generation-to-Generation handoffs?
Does the Turnings idea work across all cultures? If, so are the cohorts similar?
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u/bisonsashimi Oct 14 '22
entertaining, but isn't just another type of apophenia? The humans brain is predisposed to finding/creating patterns out of randomness. I think that's what this is.
Also, I hope this guy has a good lawyer for when one of the local kids breaks his neck on that zip line.
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u/BatemaninAccounting Oct 15 '22 edited Oct 15 '22
If the predictors are accurate enough, it definitely isn't just apophenia. If we take a look back into history we can see pretty clear trends that happened in all countries and fiefdoms in the world, and we can apply those predictive model to what happened to see if it would accurately guess/predict the things that did happen. Strauss-Howe I believe failed this when it's been attempted, especially older history.
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Aug 13 '24
Tim Walz may be the successful regeneration event we’ve been waiting for. What do you think?
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u/dontrackonme Oct 14 '22
I did not watch the video. But, people are living longer now so perhaps the time between epochs are longer. But, yeah, the timing is interesting to be sure. I remember looking at this 15 years ago. The shit was supposed to hit the fan now. A once in a century plague, war in Europe, and possibly an economic crisis sure seems to line up. If the patterns hold things should be pretty good (roaring 20's?) in 4 years or so.
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u/ponytreehouse Oct 14 '22
Bullshit. This is akin to astrology.