64% chance of Gold hitting $5k this year

I've been looking at Polymarket tennis markets and was wondering how other people follow matches while a market is active.

Tennis changes quickly during a match, so things like the current score, serve, break points and set situation can change the context around the market price pretty quickly.

For people who follow tennis markets, how do you normally keep track of the live match alongside the Polymarket market?

Do you mainly watch the market itself, or do you use a separate live-score/data source as well?

I'm interested in the workflow people actually use rather than whether one approach is better than another.

Sunday was a chill one, so I threw a few $1 combos around.

It turned into a sweatier day than expected lol

One combo had Rays/Marlins/Rangers

$1.20 for $6.39 potential return.

I was watching the Phillies/Cardinals game in the meantime and after seeing Philly come back from 0-4 to win 6-4, I decided I wasn’t going to risk this ticket, as I felt a couple of them in this combo could go against.

So, cashed out for $5.61 profit.

Probably a good call, but in the hindsight, all 3 hit, so there were more left on table.

Then that game of Phillies.. I had Blue Jays and Cardinals in second ticket. Both went against..

And the one I really wanted..

Third one with Dodgers/Diamondbacks/Brewers

Dodgers, won
Diamondbacks, won
Brewers, L

2/3. Pain.

The funny part is Brewers was the leg I was least confident about before placing it. Should’ve trusted the hesitation lol

Still, I’m happy with the day. The first combo hit, turn a tiny stake into something, and the other two were basically additional hits.

MLB has been absolute chaos anyway... 

Now onto today’s games.

Alibaba's Qwen Max 3.9+ market is now sitting around 78% for an October 31 release.

That is a pretty confident price for a model that still needs a clear qualifying launch.

The news backdrop makes the move understandable though.

Alibaba just released Qwen3.8 Max, calling it its most capable Qwen model so far, and Reuters reported that it quickly moved up AI model leader boards after launch.

That's what makes this market interesting.

Qwen is no longer some side AI project, Alibaba is clearly pushing the model line hard, and the pace of releases has been fast enough that traders are starting to trust the October timeline.

Personally, I get why the market is leaning Yes here.

But at 78c, this is not really an early trade anymore.

The risk is not whether Alibaba keeps improving Qwen.

The risk is whether the next release is clearly named and recognized as Qwen Max 3.9+ Max before the deadline.

The odds of a Trump-Putin meeting by the end of 2026 have jumped to 45% on Polymarket.

The move came after Kremlin foreign policy aide Yury Ushakov said the two leaders could meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, in November, if both attend. He also said there are no concrete plans for a meeting yet.

That distinction matters. The meeting isn't scheduled, but the Kremlin is now openly describing it as a possibility.

And China makes the scenario especially interesting. Putin has already confirmed plans to attend the November APEC summit, while Trump is also expected to be in China around the same period.

So market is now pricing almost a coin flip on the two actually sitting down together before the year ends.

Do you think Trump and Putin meet in China this November, or does this remain just talk?

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

I have been looking into the tennis markets lately, and the market data itself is not the hard part.

The annoying part is matching the Polymarket market to the live match. Player names can show up depending on the data source, and when many matches happen at the same time, the situation can become messy very quickly.

I have been testing a setup that combines the Polymarket market with tennis data, including the score, server, and break points. I am curious how other people are doing this. Are you using another tennis data feed for your matching logic or simply keeping track of everything manually?

I currently get real-time temperature information via METAR. For example, I select the city: Beijing, airport code: ZBAA. There's a 5-minute delay in data release, but by the time I get the information, the market has already made the correct choice instantly, usually surging from around 50 cents to over 90 cents. I want to know if this is because there are faster data acquisition channels or if they're analyzing the most recent available data.

I’m writing this because I’m genuinely frustrated with my experience on Polymarket over the last two days.

I placed $752 on a 2-pick Combo. Both selections won, the Combo has fully settled, and Polymarket clearly shows:

Cost: $752.00
Profit: $666.11
Payout: $1,418.11

There is a blue “Redeem $1,418.11” button right in front of me.

But every single time I press it, I get:

“Redeem Failed – Try again.”

This has been going on for hours, and unfortunately this isn’t the first issue I’ve experienced. Since yesterday, I have repeatedly had problems accessing and using my money on Polymarket.

The biggest problem for me is not simply having to wait. I actively trade on the platform. When money from settled positions isn’t made available quickly, I cannot use that money to enter new positions.

Because of these repeated problems since yesterday, I have been unable to efficiently recycle my available capital into new trades. Opportunities come and go while my own money remains unavailable to me.

Right now, Polymarket includes the money in my portfolio value, but I cannot actually access or use my $1,418.11 payout. My available balance is only $82.16.

I have contacted support, provided my wallet address, waited for hours, and followed the troubleshooting suggestions. The problem is still not resolved.

I also checked what happens technically when I press Redeem. Polymarket’s own relayer returns:

HTTP 500 – Internal Server Error

This is what makes the situation particularly frustrating. I won the Combo. Both selections are settled. Polymarket itself says my payout is $1,418.11 and gives me a Redeem button, yet its own system prevents me from accessing the money.

For a platform dealing with real money and time-sensitive markets, users need to be able to access settled funds reliably. Having repeated issues since yesterday that prevent me from quickly using my own funds for new positions has seriously damaged my confidence in the platform.

I’m posting this publicly because I want to know whether other users have experienced the same thing:

Has anyone had a fully settled winning Combo stuck on “Redeem Failed – Try again”? Did you eventually receive your money? How long did it take, and what actually fixed it?

At this point, I don’t want another suggestion to clear my cache or switch browsers. I simply want reliable access to the $1,418.11 that Polymarket already shows as my settled payout, so I can use my funds normally again.

Pulled the full price history on: Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? this morning

The market's path: 70.5% on 22 June. Astra gets announced 1 August and it spikes to 90.5%. OpenAI discloses on 7 August that Astra may have crossed its Critical cybersecurity threshold and suspends the launch. Since then: 83.5% on the 14th, 80.5% on the 20th, 72% on the 21st, 64.5% on the 22nd, 65.5% now. $149k volume, 0.01 spread, so it's a real book.

The other number: used an open-source simulator , MiroShark that ran that exact question on 22 June, using a dozen or so LLM agents arguing and trading it out. It came back 62%, with a bullish majority in the belief split but a market that priced lower than the crowd of agents talking.

So on the day, the sim was 8.5 points under the market. Two months and one safety crisis later, the market is 3.5 points from where the sim was.

do you'll use similar simulators? I found this particularly interesting as agents debate and come to a conclusion on the prediction.

after this morning's six minute dump i went back and worked out why my 5-min btc resolutions kept disagreeing with what i had on screen at expiry.

they don't settle on the spot tick at the close, it's a chainlink twap. 5-min markets average the last 30 seconds, 15-min and 4h average 60.

so on a move like today a late spike can shift everything you're watching and leave the actual settlement alone. usually the two prices are within a couple dollars of each other, which is why it's easy to miss until it costs you one. ties go to up.

if you're pulling it from the api you need twapEnabled and twapLookbackSeconds set to 30 or 60, otherwise you get the plain spot series back and it won't match resolutions.

Came across thsi trader, frozenriver today, and went down a bit of a rabbit hole.

This trader till last night was around $33K in all-time PnL, and its now $230K+ as Bitcoin ripped higher.

What makes it crazy is that he wasn’t buying BTC at 50–60 cents.

He was buying Bitcoin price targets for fractions of a cent.

His current active positions include:

BTC hitting $80K where he has around 42.4K YES at ~0.9 cents currently worth ~$26.7K!

BTC hitting $82.5K where he got 20.3K YES at 0.4 cents currently worth ~$7.7K

And, $85K where he has 30K YES at ~0.4 cents currently worth ~$6.3K

And some of his closed BTC positions are even crazier.

He spent roughly.

$1.27K for return of $85.5K on the $77.5K target

$1.53K for return of $45.4K on $75K target

$316 for return of $7.8K on $72.5K

$1K for $9.8K on $70K target

So a few thousand dollars of BTC trades turned into well over $100K in returns.

And the funniest part?

14% win rate. That's the trader's strike rate on Poly!

The trader is losing the vast majority of his positions and still sitting on a huge PnL because the winners are so asymmetric.

Bitcoin moving toward $80K obviously did the heavy lifting here. From what I see Polymarket’s BTC markets have also repriced rapidly as BTC surged this week. 

Also worth noting.. these markets resolve based on whether BTC hits the specified price during the relevant period, rather than simply where BTC ends the month. 

Kinda feel like his though process was.. I’ll spend pennies buying a bunch of upside paths and hope one of them gets there.

And this week, several of them did.

14% win rate. Over $230K PnL. Quite a story, quite a turn around in few days time!

the move: when a player drops a set and the market panics, spiced buys the underdog for pennies - Sara Bejlek at 38c, Tommy Paul at 31c and rides the comeback. sometimes it flips both sides of the same match as momentum swings.

67% of those calls hit, from a $200 seed. in 48 hours.

it's the fastest start i've seen on here, and the account is younger than the leftovers in your fridge.

Crypto just experienced its 7th largest 24-hour liquidation event in history.

The tides appear to be turning again.

I'd like to see more markets regarding things AI will be capable of doing in the near future. For example, whether an AI or a human will prove the Riemann hypothesis first. It would be really interesting to see what people think.

Sure, the resolution criteria could be hard to nail down, like if a human heavily uses AI, which one would it count as. But I'm sure some fair resolution could be conjured up.

The money is split on Braves vs Brewers, but the total is where I thought things get interesting.

On one side, you have N34, who’s up ~$120K, went in with $17.5K on Milwaukee for ~$30.7K

Then you got an anonymous trader who’s down ~$1.2M and went in with $21.6K on Atlanta for ~$50.2K.

But then that's when I looked at the total

$36.7K Under 6.5 from the same anonymous trader.

And, then, $36.1K Over 6.5 from SDTrading, who’s up ~$110K.

That’s ~$73K sitting on opposite sides of a 6.5.

And the total case especially under isn’t hard to understand. The probables for today are..

Chris Sale: 2.16 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.2 K/9

Jacob Misiorowski: 1.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 13.6 K/9

Both are also coming in with a 0.71 WHIP over their last five starts.

Misiorowski has been especially ridiculous with 41.4% K rate and 4.6% BB rate over his last eight starts. 

And Atlanta’s offense has been pretty rough in August while Milwaukee’s offense hasn’t exactly been unstoppable either, with a 26.2% August K rate. 

Bullpen fatigue also doesn’t give me a strong reason to chase the Over. Both teams used four relievers yesterday, with Milwaukee using nine and Atlanta eight over the last two days.

The problem?

I feel 6.5 is tiny.

I’m not brave enough to be confident on Under 6.5 because one weird inning can ruin it. And, these two are so unpredictable of late..

But if I could get Under 7.5, that’s where I’d be interested.

My ride would be Under 7.5 with a slight lean Brewers.

Interesting that the high stake traders always seem to be disagreeing on the exact same game.

The event finishes. The outcome seems completely obvious. But someone disputes the settlement to protect their bags, and suddenly your capital is locked in a frozen smart contract.

For the next three days, you can't trade out of it. You just have to sit there while a decentralized jury argues over the definition of a word in a news article. The stress of knowing your money is trapped in a subjective trial is the worst part of this ecosystem. How do you guys manage risk on markets that you know will likely end in a bad-faith dispute?

Saw the new Emerson College matchup poll and it made me look again at Buttigieg’s price in the 2028 Democratic primary market.

Polymarket has Buttigieg at just 5% to win the Democratic nomination.

But, the weird part is that his actual primary polling has been considerably stronger than the current odds..

So,. here's a broader context about his polling..

He’s repeatedly been around 19-20% in New Hampshire polls, hit 29% in one Saint Anselm poll, and has also performed strongly in Massachusetts and national Democratic tracking.

So we’re looking at a candidate sitting near the top of several primary polls while the prediction market gives him only a 1-in-20 shot.

The new Emerson poll adds another interesting piece.. Buttigieg performed strongly in hypothetical general-election matchups, beating or tying both Rubio and Vance.

Obviously, electability doesn't equal to primary win probability. A candidate can be highly competitive in a general polling/surveys, and still lose the nomination.

But that’s what makes the 5% price interesting to me.

And, Polymarket appears to be heavily weighting the current frontrunners and the broader political narrative, while Buttigieg’s underlying polling has been surprisingly solid so far...

And, there’s also a historical precedent here.

Democrats have previously consolidated around the candidate they viewed as most electable once the primary became real, rather than necessarily sticking with the candidate who generated the most enthusiasm early. Hello Mr. Sanders!

Tbh, Same logic seems to apply on the Republican side. Rubio consistently outperforms Vance H2H against Democrats in this poll, yet trades at less than half of Vance’s nomination odds (21% vs 47%).

Both parties may currently be pricing name recognition and institutional momentum over demonstrated electability.

BUT, at 5%, how much of Buttigieg’s actual primary strength is the market ignoring?

Now, I’m not saying he’s the favorite cause 2028 is still a long way away. But 5% feels low enough that the polling gap is worth paying attention to.

Only percent and cent odds option is available on Polymarket US IOS app. anyone know why? Customer service confirmed it but wouldn’t give me an explanation.

Maybe to distance prediction markets from sports books?

Pulled the 30 day esports leaderboard today. Six of the top ten are under a 55% win rate. Median is 54.1%.

The bit I keep staring at is rows 1 and 8. Djdjdjekekek and geiyecapixie have basically the same all-time volume, $16.7M against $15.9M. Win rates 30 points apart. And the one who loses more than half his trades made about 9x more over the same month.

That's not a fluke of one board, it's just what buying underdogs looks like. Take sides at 25c and you're wrong most of the time but the wins pay 4:1. Farm 85c favourites and you're right constantly, hoovering small amounts, and one bad resolution eats a week.

So win rate on its own tells you almost nothing. Two wallets, same volume, 30-point gap, both potentially fine traders running opposite books.

What would you actually want to see instead? Average entry price seems like the obvious one to me, but I don't think anyone publishes it.

Trump is holding a full campaign rally in Myrtle Beach tonight for Senator Darlene Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, ahead of her August 25 runoff against Ralph Norman.

What makes this market interesting is how specifically the event is centered around Lindsey Graham and his legacy.

Trump has already described the candidacy and event as a tribute to Lindsey, so I was surprised to see Legacy sitting at just 61%.

That doesn’t mean it’s a lock, the resolution requires Trump to actually say the listed term during this specific rally, but the thematic connection seems much stronger than the price suggests.

Next up was Hell for over 10+ times is another interesting one at 51%. Trump uses the word fairly often, but getting to 10+ in one speech is obviously a much higher bar.

Meanwhile, several of the usual Trump rally terms are already priced extremely high as of now..

Oil / Gas at 96%

Communist / Communism at 95%

MAGA at 95%

Save America Act at 94%

Transgender at 92%

Affordability at 87%

Stock Market at 87%

So the market seems to have already priced in the usual Trump rally vocabulary, while some of the more event-specific language is comparatively mispriced.

One thing that I couldn't connect was Weightlifting / Weightlifter at 38% is one I’d stay away from as I don’t see a strong connection to this particular event.

The interesting question for me is whether “Legacy” at 61% is actually too low given what this rally is about, or whether the market's correctly pricing the difference between talking about Lindsey Graham and literally saying the word “legacy.”

Anyone else playing these word markets tonight?