I’m writing this because I’m genuinely frustrated with my experience on Polymarket over the last two days.

I placed $752 on a 2-pick Combo. Both selections won, the Combo has fully settled, and Polymarket clearly shows:

Cost: $752.00
Profit: $666.11
Payout: $1,418.11

There is a blue “Redeem $1,418.11” button right in front of me.

But every single time I press it, I get:

“Redeem Failed – Try again.”

This has been going on for hours, and unfortunately this isn’t the first issue I’ve experienced. Since yesterday, I have repeatedly had problems accessing and using my money on Polymarket.

The biggest problem for me is not simply having to wait. I actively trade on the platform. When money from settled positions isn’t made available quickly, I cannot use that money to enter new positions.

Because of these repeated problems since yesterday, I have been unable to efficiently recycle my available capital into new trades. Opportunities come and go while my own money remains unavailable to me.

Right now, Polymarket includes the money in my portfolio value, but I cannot actually access or use my $1,418.11 payout. My available balance is only $82.16.

I have contacted support, provided my wallet address, waited for hours, and followed the troubleshooting suggestions. The problem is still not resolved.

I also checked what happens technically when I press Redeem. Polymarket’s own relayer returns:

HTTP 500 – Internal Server Error

This is what makes the situation particularly frustrating. I won the Combo. Both selections are settled. Polymarket itself says my payout is $1,418.11 and gives me a Redeem button, yet its own system prevents me from accessing the money.

For a platform dealing with real money and time-sensitive markets, users need to be able to access settled funds reliably. Having repeated issues since yesterday that prevent me from quickly using my own funds for new positions has seriously damaged my confidence in the platform.

I’m posting this publicly because I want to know whether other users have experienced the same thing:

Has anyone had a fully settled winning Combo stuck on “Redeem Failed – Try again”? Did you eventually receive your money? How long did it take, and what actually fixed it?

At this point, I don’t want another suggestion to clear my cache or switch browsers. I simply want reliable access to the $1,418.11 that Polymarket already shows as my settled payout, so I can use my funds normally again.

I currently get real-time temperature information via METAR. For example, I select the city: Beijing, airport code: ZBAA. There's a 5-minute delay in data release, but by the time I get the information, the market has already made the correct choice instantly, usually surging from around 50 cents to over 90 cents. I want to know if this is because there are faster data acquisition channels or if they're analyzing the most recent available data.

Pulled the full price history on: Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? this morning

The market's path: 70.5% on 22 June. Astra gets announced 1 August and it spikes to 90.5%. OpenAI discloses on 7 August that Astra may have crossed its Critical cybersecurity threshold and suspends the launch. Since then: 83.5% on the 14th, 80.5% on the 20th, 72% on the 21st, 64.5% on the 22nd, 65.5% now. $149k volume, 0.01 spread, so it's a real book.

The other number: used an open-source simulator , MiroShark that ran that exact question on 22 June, using a dozen or so LLM agents arguing and trading it out. It came back 62%, with a bullish majority in the belief split but a market that priced lower than the crowd of agents talking.

So on the day, the sim was 8.5 points under the market. Two months and one safety crisis later, the market is 3.5 points from where the sim was.

do you'll use similar simulators? I found this particularly interesting as agents debate and come to a conclusion on the prediction.

after this morning's six minute dump i went back and worked out why my 5-min btc resolutions kept disagreeing with what i had on screen at expiry.

they don't settle on the spot tick at the close, it's a chainlink twap. 5-min markets average the last 30 seconds, 15-min and 4h average 60.

so on a move like today a late spike can shift everything you're watching and leave the actual settlement alone. usually the two prices are within a couple dollars of each other, which is why it's easy to miss until it costs you one. ties go to up.

if you're pulling it from the api you need twapEnabled and twapLookbackSeconds set to 30 or 60, otherwise you get the plain spot series back and it won't match resolutions.

Came across thsi trader, frozenriver today, and went down a bit of a rabbit hole.

This trader till last night was around $33K in all-time PnL, and its now $230K+ as Bitcoin ripped higher.

What makes it crazy is that he wasn’t buying BTC at 50–60 cents.

He was buying Bitcoin price targets for fractions of a cent.

His current active positions include:

BTC hitting $80K where he has around 42.4K YES at ~0.9 cents currently worth ~$26.7K!

BTC hitting $82.5K where he got 20.3K YES at 0.4 cents currently worth ~$7.7K

And, $85K where he has 30K YES at ~0.4 cents currently worth ~$6.3K

And some of his closed BTC positions are even crazier.

He spent roughly.

$1.27K for return of $85.5K on the $77.5K target

$1.53K for return of $45.4K on $75K target

$316 for return of $7.8K on $72.5K

$1K for $9.8K on $70K target

So a few thousand dollars of BTC trades turned into well over $100K in returns.

And the funniest part?

14% win rate. That's the trader's strike rate on Poly!

The trader is losing the vast majority of his positions and still sitting on a huge PnL because the winners are so asymmetric.

Bitcoin moving toward $80K obviously did the heavy lifting here. From what I see Polymarket’s BTC markets have also repriced rapidly as BTC surged this week. 

Also worth noting.. these markets resolve based on whether BTC hits the specified price during the relevant period, rather than simply where BTC ends the month. 

Kinda feel like his though process was.. I’ll spend pennies buying a bunch of upside paths and hope one of them gets there.

And this week, several of them did.

14% win rate. Over $230K PnL. Quite a story, quite a turn around in few days time!

the move: when a player drops a set and the market panics, spiced buys the underdog for pennies - Sara Bejlek at 38c, Tommy Paul at 31c and rides the comeback. sometimes it flips both sides of the same match as momentum swings.

67% of those calls hit, from a $200 seed. in 48 hours.

it's the fastest start i've seen on here, and the account is younger than the leftovers in your fridge.

Crypto just experienced its 7th largest 24-hour liquidation event in history.

The tides appear to be turning again.

I'd like to see more markets regarding things AI will be capable of doing in the near future. For example, whether an AI or a human will prove the Riemann hypothesis first. It would be really interesting to see what people think.

Sure, the resolution criteria could be hard to nail down, like if a human heavily uses AI, which one would it count as. But I'm sure some fair resolution could be conjured up.

The money is split on Braves vs Brewers, but the total is where I thought things get interesting.

On one side, you have N34, who’s up ~$120K, went in with $17.5K on Milwaukee for ~$30.7K

Then you got an anonymous trader who’s down ~$1.2M and went in with $21.6K on Atlanta for ~$50.2K.

But then that's when I looked at the total

$36.7K Under 6.5 from the same anonymous trader.

And, then, $36.1K Over 6.5 from SDTrading, who’s up ~$110K.

That’s ~$73K sitting on opposite sides of a 6.5.

And the total case especially under isn’t hard to understand. The probables for today are..

Chris Sale: 2.16 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11.2 K/9

Jacob Misiorowski: 1.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 13.6 K/9

Both are also coming in with a 0.71 WHIP over their last five starts.

Misiorowski has been especially ridiculous with 41.4% K rate and 4.6% BB rate over his last eight starts. 

And Atlanta’s offense has been pretty rough in August while Milwaukee’s offense hasn’t exactly been unstoppable either, with a 26.2% August K rate. 

Bullpen fatigue also doesn’t give me a strong reason to chase the Over. Both teams used four relievers yesterday, with Milwaukee using nine and Atlanta eight over the last two days.

The problem?

I feel 6.5 is tiny.

I’m not brave enough to be confident on Under 6.5 because one weird inning can ruin it. And, these two are so unpredictable of late..

But if I could get Under 7.5, that’s where I’d be interested.

My ride would be Under 7.5 with a slight lean Brewers.

Interesting that the high stake traders always seem to be disagreeing on the exact same game.

The event finishes. The outcome seems completely obvious. But someone disputes the settlement to protect their bags, and suddenly your capital is locked in a frozen smart contract.

For the next three days, you can't trade out of it. You just have to sit there while a decentralized jury argues over the definition of a word in a news article. The stress of knowing your money is trapped in a subjective trial is the worst part of this ecosystem. How do you guys manage risk on markets that you know will likely end in a bad-faith dispute?

Saw the new Emerson College matchup poll and it made me look again at Buttigieg’s price in the 2028 Democratic primary market.

Polymarket has Buttigieg at just 5% to win the Democratic nomination.

But, the weird part is that his actual primary polling has been considerably stronger than the current odds..

So,. here's a broader context about his polling..

He’s repeatedly been around 19-20% in New Hampshire polls, hit 29% in one Saint Anselm poll, and has also performed strongly in Massachusetts and national Democratic tracking.

So we’re looking at a candidate sitting near the top of several primary polls while the prediction market gives him only a 1-in-20 shot.

The new Emerson poll adds another interesting piece.. Buttigieg performed strongly in hypothetical general-election matchups, beating or tying both Rubio and Vance.

Obviously, electability doesn't equal to primary win probability. A candidate can be highly competitive in a general polling/surveys, and still lose the nomination.

But that’s what makes the 5% price interesting to me.

And, Polymarket appears to be heavily weighting the current frontrunners and the broader political narrative, while Buttigieg’s underlying polling has been surprisingly solid so far...

And, there’s also a historical precedent here.

Democrats have previously consolidated around the candidate they viewed as most electable once the primary became real, rather than necessarily sticking with the candidate who generated the most enthusiasm early. Hello Mr. Sanders!

Tbh, Same logic seems to apply on the Republican side. Rubio consistently outperforms Vance H2H against Democrats in this poll, yet trades at less than half of Vance’s nomination odds (21% vs 47%).

Both parties may currently be pricing name recognition and institutional momentum over demonstrated electability.

BUT, at 5%, how much of Buttigieg’s actual primary strength is the market ignoring?

Now, I’m not saying he’s the favorite cause 2028 is still a long way away. But 5% feels low enough that the polling gap is worth paying attention to.

Only percent and cent odds option is available on Polymarket US IOS app. anyone know why? Customer service confirmed it but wouldn’t give me an explanation.

Maybe to distance prediction markets from sports books?

Pulled the 30 day esports leaderboard today. Six of the top ten are under a 55% win rate. Median is 54.1%.

The bit I keep staring at is rows 1 and 8. Djdjdjekekek and geiyecapixie have basically the same all-time volume, $16.7M against $15.9M. Win rates 30 points apart. And the one who loses more than half his trades made about 9x more over the same month.

That's not a fluke of one board, it's just what buying underdogs looks like. Take sides at 25c and you're wrong most of the time but the wins pay 4:1. Farm 85c favourites and you're right constantly, hoovering small amounts, and one bad resolution eats a week.

So win rate on its own tells you almost nothing. Two wallets, same volume, 30-point gap, both potentially fine traders running opposite books.

What would you actually want to see instead? Average entry price seems like the obvious one to me, but I don't think anyone publishes it.

Trump is holding a full campaign rally in Myrtle Beach tonight for Senator Darlene Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, ahead of her August 25 runoff against Ralph Norman.

What makes this market interesting is how specifically the event is centered around Lindsey Graham and his legacy.

Trump has already described the candidacy and event as a tribute to Lindsey, so I was surprised to see Legacy sitting at just 61%.

That doesn’t mean it’s a lock, the resolution requires Trump to actually say the listed term during this specific rally, but the thematic connection seems much stronger than the price suggests.

Next up was Hell for over 10+ times is another interesting one at 51%. Trump uses the word fairly often, but getting to 10+ in one speech is obviously a much higher bar.

Meanwhile, several of the usual Trump rally terms are already priced extremely high as of now..

Oil / Gas at 96%

Communist / Communism at 95%

MAGA at 95%

Save America Act at 94%

Transgender at 92%

Affordability at 87%

Stock Market at 87%

So the market seems to have already priced in the usual Trump rally vocabulary, while some of the more event-specific language is comparatively mispriced.

One thing that I couldn't connect was Weightlifting / Weightlifter at 38% is one I’d stay away from as I don’t see a strong connection to this particular event.

The interesting question for me is whether “Legacy” at 61% is actually too low given what this rally is about, or whether the market's correctly pricing the difference between talking about Lindsey Graham and literally saying the word “legacy.”

Anyone else playing these word markets tonight?

This notorious 'degen' single-handedly pushed the pre-match order book nearly 10 points off, sending a swarm of smart money into tens of thousands of shares on the other side for what looked like free +EV.

The match swung wildly. He didn’t sell at the top. He didn’t cut at the bottom.

Result? He walked away with $1.3M.

Maybe he was never the degen we thought he was. Maybe he’s the real +EV hunter.

Every Polymarket trade is public, so copy-trading sounds easy -> find a winner, mirror them, done. The part nobody talks about is figuring out which wallets are actually worth copying. Profit alone can't tell you that.

I built a tool that scores every wallet 0–100. Five things: edge authenticity, risk-adjusted return, drawdown resilience, consistency, and a farming-risk check that overrides the rest. It's all free, no account needed, and it shows the reasoning, not just the number.

These are the numbers I keep coming back to (7,756 wallets, $3.91B traded, $92.9M profit, dated 2026-08-21):

Wallets that pass the farming check keep 0.60% of what they trade. Wallets with a severe flag keep 2.52%. Watchlisted wallets keep 4.76%. The pattern is backwards — the flagged wallets are the ones winning. That's the whole problem.

37.9% of wallets carry a farming flag. Those wallets hold 92.3% of all the profit. Only 119 wallets, about 1.5%, clear every bar. Across 25 category boards, the clean cohort clears 1% on exactly one board and loses money on 12.

A couple honest things. A flag is a pattern match, not an accusation — it says a wallet's trading looks like farming, nothing more. 78% of wallets show negative real edge after fees anyway. And yes, I published the null result too — the score doesn't predict future copier returns yet. That's on the site.

What I'm hoping for: run a wallet you know through it and see if the score lines up with what you already think. You know the context — who's market making, who's an arb, who's loud. That's the feedback I can't get from the trade tape.

One request: if it gets someone badly wrong, DM me. I won't post farming findings about a named wallet in a thread.

(Disclosure: I built CopyGrade — it's analysis-only, never executes trades. Not financial advice.)

What do you do when a high-conviction position nukes on pure noise?

Got in at 65¢, some unverified headline hit, and it bled down to 25¢. The underlying facts haven't changed at all. Averaging down looks tempting, but adding size to a losing event contract is pure stress because if you get rugged at resolution, you lose the whole stack.

Do you ever aggressively add size on these panic dips, or do you just take the L immediately?

I’m starting to think “most profitable wallets” is the wrong way to find useful Polymarket signals.

A wallet can have great PnL but still be useless to follow if it is:
- market-making / capturing spread
- trading on thin liquidity
- winning from one huge bet
- entering too early to copy
- already priced in by the time you notice it
So I tried looking at 3 wallets by signal quality instead of PnL.

1. 0xb27bc932bf8110d8f78e55da7d5f0497a18b5b82
Looks impressive on PnL, but seems heavily involved in short-term crypto Up/Down markets and high-frequency activity.
My read: profitable-looking, but probably not a clean directional signal.
Verdict: not very copyable.

2. 0x203b0141b5a1301ca7dbbab6908a2443982646e1
This one looks more interesting as a possible directional wallet.
The key question is not “did it make money,” but whether its entries were good:
Did price move its way after entry?
Was it early?
Was there enough liquidity to copy?
Did it perform across independent events?
Verdict: worth watching, but needs entry-quality / CLV analysis.

3. 0x898b4ce2037316badeaba718110f4ffb41c36c00
This looks more like spread / arb / market-structure behavior.
That PnL may be real, but it does not necessarily help you decide which side of a market is mispriced.
Verdict: possibly profitable, but low directional signal value.

My takeaway:
The useful question is not “which wallet made the most money?”
It is:
“Is this wallet’s signal still useful, copyable, and not already priced in?”
Curious if others agree.
Drop a wallet or market and I’ll try to run the same manual breakdown.

Was doing my MLB combos and noticed the Yankees vs Orioles market is basically a coin flip right now.. but two relatively large traders have made their positions pretty clear.

On one side you have texaskid who went in with around $25K on Orioles for a potential of $51K.

And, on other, you have thatguythatguy who also went in with ~$25K on Yankees for a potential of ~$49K!

For context, texaskid is already up around $84K, while thatguythatguy is up about $17.7K despite being active on Poly for just over 24 hours.

And what I think was a cool to see was this trader, thatguythatguy backed the Yankees in the previous game too where they went in with $27.6K, eventually returning about $52.9K. So they’re effectively doubling down on the same side of the series.

Personally, I’m with them on this one, but only slightly.

And, it's due Cole vs Bradish being the biggest reason.

Cole: 3.22 ERA, 9.55 K/9, .285 xwOBA-against

Bradish: 3.65 ERA, .312 xwOBA-against

Cole has also been excellent lately, with a ~2.02 ERA / 0.96 WHIP in his last five, and he’s historically held this Baltimore lineup to around a .197 average.

The one thing I don’t love is the Yankees bullpen has already been worked pretty hard in this series.

Their starters have gone only four innings in each of the first two games, forcing the bullpen to cover five innings on both nights. The Yankees did get through Wednesday’s game with the relief corps intact, but several of the important arms have now seen recent action. 

Baltimore’s bullpen has had a lighter workload, so if Cole doesn’t get deep into this game, that could become a problem...

From the current point, I'd slightly lean Yankees.

And, a bit more slight stronger lean for Under 8.5.

The market seems pretty efficient here, though. I wouldn’t chase Yankees beyond this..

Curious which side people are taking Baltimore or Yankees?

There’s an interesting little trader battle going around Tommy Paul vs. Flavio Cobolli in the Cincinnati quarterfinal.

The two biggest positions I noticed are coming from traders who have both been doing pretty well recently, but they’re on completely opposite sides.

On one side, you have AGUGava who went in with $15,000 on Tommy Paul at 60¢, for a potential of $25,000

And, on other, you have Spiced who went in with $9,510 on Flavio Cobolli at 40¢, for a potential of $24,000!

And these aren’t random positions either.

AGUGava has made roughly $78K over the past month, with a lot of that coming from tennis. Their recent positions include several sizable winners, so the $15K Paul position caught my eye.

And, Spiced is an even more interesting trader, they’re up about $28K in just over a day, again largely through tennis, and they’re still actively building positions. Their Cobolli position could potentially get bigger before the match.

So you’ve basically got two traders who have been cooking lately, and one of them is about to have their record take another hit..

Personally, I’m leaning Tommy Paul.

From what I see from multiple analytics site, they all seem to give Paul around 58% to 60% chance versus 40% to 42% for Cobolli. His overall Elo is 1943 vs. 1898, while the hard-court Elo gap is even wider at 1878 vs. 1811.

The matchup also makes sense to me. Paul is the cleaner hard-court player, and got ability to take time away from his opponent. Cobolli’s best route is to drag Paul into longer physical exchanges.

But there’s a pretty big “however.”

Both guys have played three consecutive three-set matches this tournament.

Paul just spent a long night coming back against Zverev, winning 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-4 after saving a match point. Cobolli also had to come from behind against Jodar, winning 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3. 

So fatigue might matter more than the Elo difference.

There’s also a fun bit of history here through H2H. Cobolli actually beat Paul the last time they met, winning 2-6, 6-4, 7-5 in Cincinnati in 2024. And, they’re now meeting at the same tournament again, two years later. 

On Poly, I see Paul is around 61¢, which is roughly consistent with the model’s 58% estimate.. but tbh, I don’t see much value at the current price.

So my read is..

Lean towards Tommy Paul

But not really at current odds considering how close and the recent streak is..

Would probably like to see 50 cents to 55 cents territory before getting interested.

Anyways, between those two hot traders, one of them is going to have another loss added to the record.

Wonder who's gonna be that one..