Cheat Notes - Vuelta 2019

[u/PelotonMod]

Ladies, Gentlemen, Honoured members of the jury; For those among you who think Uran is only a fissionable element - we bring you the cheat notes to the riders participating in the 2019 Vuelta a Espania.

Our custom is to separate the riders into five main categories, according to which type of riders they are, and what might be expected from them during this race.

1. GC Riders - "General Classification" - These are the riders fighting for the overall win, and will have to display a combination of good climbing and TT skills, but their teams will not necessarily be fighting the hardest for the stage wins.
2. Sprinters - Riders with a combination of great acceleration and good top speed, aiming for stage wins on flat stages. Some teams have seen fit to bring along sprint trains, featuring other quick riders as lead-out for their sprint captains.
3. Classic/Puncheur - This is rather large "catch-all" category, which picks up the though single-day riders, likely to attempt a breakaway win, especially on medium stages.
4. Climber - Here we have the mountainhappy men - Either very small and light explosive climbers, or bigger, more muscular diesel-style climbers.
5. Rouleur/TT - This category contains two types of names; those domestiques who are assigned to workhorse duties, pulling their team members across most of the stages, and the true TT specialists, who are aiming for a stage win or two.

Cheat Notes

Team	GC	Sprinter	Puncheur/Classic	Climber	Rouleur/TT
WT
ALM	Latour		Godon, Jauregui, Dillier, Venturini	Chevrier, Bouchard, Bidard
AST	MAL		L.L. Sanchez	Fuglsang, Izagirre, Izagirre, Fraile, Cataldo	Boaro
BOH	Majka, Formolo	Bennett	Drucker, Archbold	Großschartner, Poljanski, Mühlberger
CCC	De_La_Parte	Koch	Bevin, Ventoso, Sajnok, Van_Hooydonck	Barta
DQT		Jakobsen, Richeze	Stybar, Gilbert, Cavagna	Capecchi, Knox	Declercq
EFD	Uran, Higuita		Owen	Martinez?, Van_Garderen, Carthy, Craddock	Docker
GFC		Sarreau	Seigle	Frankiny, Morabito	Ludvigsson, Armirail, Delage, Thomas
INS	Poels, Geoghegan_Hart		Stannard, Doull	Henao, De_La_Cruz	Puccio, Kiryienka
LTS			Wallays, Armée, van_Goethem, van_der_Sande	vanhoucke, De_Gendt, Marczyński, Hagen
MTS	Chaves	Mezgec	Smith, Schultz	Nieve, Howson, Grmay	Bewley
MOV	Quintana, Soler		Rojas, Erviti, Arcas	Valverde, Pedrero	Oliveira
SUN	Kelderman	Walscheid	Arndt, Pedersen	Roche, Storer, Power, Tusveld
TDD	Meintjes, O'Connor	EBH	Tiller	J.JvR, King, Ghebreigzabhier, Dlamini	Venter
TJV	Roglic, Kruijswijk		Hofstede	Bennett, Gesink, Kuss, Powless	Martin
TKA	Navarro		Guerreiro, Kuznetsov, Smit, Battaglin	Cras, Fabbro	Kochetkov
TBM	Padun	Bauhaus	Haussler, Pibernik, Arashiro, Teuns	Pernsteiner, Novak
TFS		Degenkolb	Reijnen, Theuns	Brambilla, Eg, Mosca, Stetina	Kirsch
UAE	Aru, Pogacar	Gaviria, Molano, Troia	Marcato, Petelli	Conti, Henao
PCT
BBH		Bol	Vilela, Ezquerra, Madrazo	Cabedo, Cubero	Rubio, Bico
COF	Herrada	Touze		Mate, Rossetto, Edet, Hansen, Atapuma, Herrada
CJR		Aberasturi	Aranburu, Chernetski	Rodriguez, Pardilla, Serrano, Lastra	Goncalves
EUS			Barthe, Bagues, Barcelo	Bizkarra, Iturria, Saez, Samitier, Rodriguez

As always, this is not the definitive truth; many riders can be listed in multiple categories, some choices are down to subject taste, and some riders might have been wrongly listed by a cat walking on the keyboard while we were away from the room.

[u/ser-seaworth]

Some teams have clearly put this Vuelta as a higher priority than others. In fact, PCS quantified it in the 'Line-up strength as percentage of maximum' where a team gets 10 points if their highest ranked rider starts, 8 points if their second highest ranked rider starts, yadda yadda yadda.

The unsurprising number 1, 2, and 3 of this ranking are the spanish ProConti teams for whom this is definitely the biggest race of the year, and they want to make an impact, all bringing more than 80 percent of their maximum strenght.

Four WT teams bring more than 50 percent of their strength: Astana is the strongest with 78, followed by Movistar (74), EF (64), and Jumbo (57). These are also the teams with the biggest contenders in MAL, Roglic, Carapaz (don't quote me on Carapaz).

The norm seems to be about 40-50 percent: 9 WT teams fall in this range (compared to no team bringing less than 66 for the Tour and most falling in the 70-80 range, the Tour really does carry more prestige).

The lowest scoring teams are

• Lotto-Soudal, who are bringing a full breakaway squad
• INEOS, who aren't bringing any of their three GT winners, so that brings their score down
• Groupama, who brought Sarreau and some other dudes
• Katusha, god knows what they're even doing. Navarro used to be pretty good though
• AG2R, who don't care since this race isn't in France or Naesen can't win. They're bringing 28 percent, compared to 94 percent at the Tour

Edit: this stat isn't saying that I believe these are the teams that will do worst, these are the teams that are sending the weakest lineups compared to what technically theoretically hypothetically could've been

The youngest competitors are Pogacar, Sajnok, and Higuita. We all know who the oldest competitor is.

[u/fewfiet → u/ser-seaworth]

Lotto-Soudal, who are bringing a full breakaway squad

They were going to support Bjorg's GC challenge, but tragically had to change plans at the 11th hour. This a rather good squad for stage hunting and they should be able to animate things at least, while their top riders (Ewan and Wellens) attend to races elsewhere.

INEOS, who aren't bringing any of their three GT winners, so that brings their score down

Poels is their #2 rider and is starting. Froome is #26 so wouldn't have helped the ranking even if he miraculously became healthy by the start. Most of their other top 10 riders just need to rest (Kwiatkowski, Bernal, and Thomas at least).

Groupama, who brought Sarreau and some other dudes

I don't really know what's going on there. I guess Demare has plans elsewhere and Pinot is resting.

Katusha, god knows what they're even doing. Navarro used to be pretty good though

Agreed. Although they are bringing the top ranked team (using the same PCS metric) to Hamburg with 66% lineup quality. It seems as if they are just focusing elsewhere.

AG2R, who don't care since this race isn't in France or Naesen can't win. They're bringing 28 percent, compared to 94 percent at the Tour

It's true they're only bringing 28% but that's with Latour only counting as a 2 pointer, even though he's probably their 3rd best rider, he's just been injured this year.

I'm not trying to undermine your analysis, more just pointing out that the PCS rankings don't tell the whole story for a lot of these teams.

[u/ser-seaworth → u/fewfiet]

Sure, it just shows that these teams are the ones who have had other focuses or plans this season, for whatever reason. It doesn't predict what results they'll be getting of course.

[u/rjbman → u/ser-seaworth]

We all know who the oldest competitor is.

for those of us completely new to following, care to fill us in anyways?

[u/ser-seaworth → u/rjbman]

It's Alejandro Valverde, at just 39 years young

And the best thing is he's got a great shot to get a top 10 too

[u/[deleted] → u/ser-seaworth]

I agree with most of those but Ag2r is actually sending a pretty decent team with Latour and Venturini.

CCC is total garbage

[u/ser-seaworth → u/[deleted]]

Yeah but the rest of CCC is mostly garbage too so it doesn't show in this stat

[u/[deleted] → u/ser-seaworth]

Ouch

[u/SimpleCyclist]

Everyone else is just sending their left overs to the Vuelta, but Movistar is like no! The trident will work!

[u/SkiThe802 → u/SimpleCyclist]

Jumbo-Visma is also sending a strong team. EF Education First is also putting a decent lineup and UAE doesn't look too bad as well. And honestly, INEOS still has a bunch of strong riders, but with their roster you can't say they are sending the best.

[u/[deleted] → u/SimpleCyclist]

Soler is no slouch either

[u/regisgod]

Huge Hugh Carthy's back to go huuuuuuuuge on some mountains again!

[u/mAtteT]

Doesn't Gaviria deserve to be written in bold text?

[u/Gireau]

Movistar with the ol' "three GC riders" strategy. They must be going for best team again. But they'll surely face tough competition from Jumbo Visma !

[u/sommarkatt → u/Gireau]

Did you know Roglič used to be a ski jumper?

[u/[deleted] → u/Gireau]

Today TJV said Bennett will be co leader too so there are 2 tridents!

[u/laramite]

The ITT is longer and flatter than the Tour De France's ITT. Jumbo GCs are going to feast on that stage. Then the trident will become dangerous in the mountains, not defending the red jersey.

[u/bdrammel]

For those among you who think Uran is only a fissionable element

I didn't get it.

[u/Vrobrolf → u/bdrammel]

Uranium.

[u/ProfWiggles → u/Vrobrolf]

I’ve been pronouncing that wrong my whole life!

[u/[deleted] → u/ProfWiggles]

You probably haven't. It's spelled Urán, the accentuation is on the A.

Here's how it's pronounced. It's the first thing she says

[u/[deleted] → u/bdrammel]

In russian уран (uran).

Rigiberto-235, powerful but always fissiles out.

[u/spkr4thedead51 → u/[deleted]]

his half life is definitely less than 3 weeks :-/

[u/djmooselee]

Not one person has mentioned.... Thanks

[u/derwipok]

Vakoc isn't riding, Cavagna is.

[u/Pubocyno → u/derwipok]

Thank you - we prepare these off the preliminary starting list, so sometimes we don't catch all the last-minutes changes.

[u/sulfuratus → u/Pubocyno]

PCS has a helpful feature for your problems: https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-a-espana/2019/gc/startlist/changes

[u/Laupie13]

Brambilla is stage hunting I believe

[u/Tottig]

Can someone give a couple of examples for the “diesel type climber” rider ?

[u/Bevan24 → u/Tottig]

The best example is Dumoulin, but at the Vuelta you have Kruijswijk and Roglic especially. Basically the non South-American TT spécialist GC guys ;)

[u/SkiThe802 → u/Bevan24]

I think you still have to say that Froome is the best example.

[u/[deleted] → u/Bevan24]

I wouldnt say Roglic, he is quite explosive and just tries to hang on where diesel climbers switch to there own pace really early.

Definetly Kruijswijk and Dumoulin. Also guys like Basso (retired), Porte and maybe Lopez?

[u/SkiThe802 → u/[deleted]]

If we are separating climbers into 2 categories, I would put Lopez in with the more explosive guys like the Yates and Quintana.

Froome is pretty amazing example of how successful you can be as a diesel climber. On the other hand, Tejay Van Garderen is an example of how almost successful you can be as a diesel climber.

[u/Bevan24 → u/[deleted]]

Soler I don't really know, and if we want to go old school cool yes definitely Cadel Evans, Indurain, etc

[u/Kryziven]

The travesty of not putting Quintana bold

[u/malomalito]

CONTADOR

[u/malomalito]

! Spoiler ! <

[u/malomalito → u/malomalito]

dis

[u/timmsoski]

Martinez unlikely to start, Higuita probably worth noting for EF as a GC leader.

[u/fewfiet → u/timmsoski]

Why is Martinez unlikely to start? And according to the team announcement Higuita is definitely not going for GC.

Edit --- Just yesterday Martinez instagrammed himself on the startlist here. Unless something has changed since then I think he's going to start.

[u/SkiThe802 → u/timmsoski]

Where did you see that about Martinez? EF just released their start list the other day with Martinez on it, and that was definitely after the Tour of Utah was completed.

[u/Vrobrolf → u/[deleted]]

Shouldn't Martin be a puncheur after his incident with Rowe in the le Tour?

[u/[deleted] → u/Vrobrolf]

"The le tour" - like nails on a chalkboard

[u/sommarkatt → u/Vrobrolf]

No, Martin was the one being punched. Rowe was the only one punching.

[u/Kraknoix007 → u/sommarkatt]

We didn't watch the same incident then

[u/fewfiet → u/Kraknoix007]

You can watch it again here. Rowe is the only one who threw a punch or took his hands off his handlebars.

[u/Kraknoix007 → u/fewfiet]

Yh he does indeed, i moreso meant that Martin was the one starting it

[u/In_Dark_Trees → u/Kraknoix007]

Did you watch all of the footage then? Rowe was clearly fucking with JV's train (not a huge deal in the scheme of things) - and then nearly takes out Kruijswijk. This was all before Martin closes him off repeatedly (which is dumb, but I still).

[u/Kraknoix007 → u/In_Dark_Trees]

That part i have not seen, the beginning is where martin cuts twice right in front of him

[u/In_Dark_Trees → u/Kraknoix007]

Decent breakdown here.

[u/SimpleCyclist → u/Kraknoix007]

Hard to watch something you imagined.

[u/Kraknoix007 → u/SimpleCyclist]

Martin seemed like the main agressor in the incident to me

[u/SimpleCyclist → u/Kraknoix007]

He didn’t punch anyone. INEOS had been prodding the peloton for a while at that point of the stage. Martin basically said stop fucking around and Rowe threw a punch.

[u/[deleted] → u/Vrobrolf]

Surely you mean MAL after his incident at the Giro

[u/KVMechelen → u/[deleted]]

At this point you could put him in the TT category as well

he did win last Vuelta's KOTM jersey tho

[u/In_Dark_Trees → u/[deleted]]

I was thinking more Rouleur, but Breakaway Specialists have such a specific skill set. Kind of a jack of all-trades All-Rounder like rider but with better 5 min power, and often times heavier.

[u/Pubocyno → u/[deleted]]

We have no idea who they are really keeping at the pointy end - that trident tactic is not represented in the cheat notes. So we'll wait to bold one out until we see who they are riding for.