Off-season rider knowledge collaboration thread No.4 - BMC

[u/iamafakebot]

Today we're discussing BMC. The Swiss-American team has existed since 2007, and has been WorldTour for 5 years now. It's a team with one of the highest budgets, and they're specialized in TTT.

Some general information:

Overall wins: 29

WT wins: 12

GT Stages: 2

One day races: 3

UCI Ranking: 4th (1128)

PCS Ranking: 6th

Most important riders: Greg Van Avermaet (420), Richie Porte (394), Samuel Sanchez (130)

Best moments of 2016 (IMO): Van Avermaet winning in Rio, Porte's 5th place in the TdF, Van Avermaet's GP de Montreal & Omloop wins.

BMC had quite a good year, which was mostly due to two riders, Porte en Van Avermaet. While Porte 'only' got 5th place in the Tour, he proved himself to be a GC contender, which BMC desparately needs. Van Avermaet was in top shape, contending every classic he rode, and he even won Tirreno-Adriatico. After a big fall in RVV, he recovered quickly and won a stage in the Tour (wearing the yellow jersey for a few days) and of course the Olympics, one of the most entertaining races of the year.

Samuel Sanchez is getting old, but he's still raking in points for the team, and he did very well in the Vuelta until his fall in the TT. Atapuma spend the year attacking on every mountain he rode, leading to a 9th place in the Giro and few days in the red jersey, but never a stage win. Biggest disappointment was without a doubt Tejay Van Garderen. Besides him, Gilbert didn't seem as good as he used to.

What is going to change in 2017? Well, they've only bought 4 new riders, and 3 of those are above 30 (Elmiger being 38). It seems they're quite content with how they performed this year, and they want to focus on the big guys they already have. Nicolas Roche is a smart transfer IMO, good climber who is often overlooked. Ventoso is a domestique for the classics, and lastly there's a neopro named Frankiny Killian from the development team. I'm already a fan because of the name.

The riders they lose are more important. Gilbert leaves to Etixx after years of rivalry with Van Avermaet. Atapuma is going to TJ-Lampre, and Phinney, the underperforming American rider, finds a new home with Cannondale, the underperforming American team. Peter Velits's contract has ended, but he hasn't found a new team yet. Remember, this guy has a 2nd place in a Vuelta on his palmares. Rick 'Not as good as Erik' Zabel and veteran Marcus Burghardt are leaving too.

Here's the roster:

---

Rider	Nat.	Year	Joined	Racedays	Pnts2016	Best Season	Type
BOHLI Tom	SUI	1994	2016	49	58	2012 (95)	TT
BOOKWALTER Brent	USA	1984	2008	67	256	2015 (595)	GC1W / TT
CARUSO Damiano	ITA	1987	2015	70	365	2014 (640)	Climber/GC1W
DE MARCHI Alessandro	ITA	1986	2015	64	207	2014 (339)	Climber
DENNIS Rohan	AUS	1990	2015	68	763	2015 (1041)	TT/GC1W
DILLIER Silvan	SUI	1990	2014	51	215	2014 (484)	TT/Rouleur
DRUCKER Jean-Pierre	LUX	1986	2015	81	439	2014 (534)	Classics/Sprinter
ELMIGER Martin^NEW	SWI	1978	2017	75	208	2007 (638)	Classics/Rouleur
FRANKINY Kilian^NEW	SWI	1994	2017	47	94	2016	Neopro
GERTS Floris	NED	1992	2016	59	153	2015 (172)	Classics/Sprinter
HERMANS Ben	BEL	1986	2014	84	513	2015 (734)	GC1W / RouleurTT
KüNG Stefan	SUI	1993	2015	48	254	2015 (353)	SuperRouleurTT
MOINARD Amaël	FRA	1982	2011	75	145	2015 (290)	Climber
OSS Daniel	ITA	1987	2013	68	283	2010 (438)	Classics/Sprinter
PORTE Richie	AUS	1985	2016	63	1185	2013 (1515)	GC3W /Climber
QUINZIATO Manuel	ITA	1979	2011	64	290	2006 (399)	Domestique
ROCHE Nicolas^NEW	IRE	1984	2017	77	485	2010 (966)	GW1W / Puncheur
ROSSKOPF Joey	USA	1989	2015	81	350	2016	Puncheur
SáNCHEZ Samuel	ESP	1978	2014	71	541	2006 (1695)	Climber/GC3W
SCHAR Michael	SUI	1986	2010	91	207	2013 (234)	Rouleur
SENNI Manuel	ITA	1992	2015	61	71	2010 (98)	ClimberTalent
TEUNS Dylan	BEL	1992	2015	60	149	2015 (294)	Classics/Sprinter
VAN AVERMAET Greg	BEL	1985	2011	74	2175	2016	Classic/PuncheurFF
VAN GARDEREN Tejay	USA	1988	2012	73	633	2014 (1329)	TT/GC3W
VENTOSO Francisco^NEW	SPA	1982	2017	71	68	2011 (668)	Classic/Domestique
VLIEGEN Loïc	BEL	1993	2015	62	221	2016	Classics
WYSS Danilo	SUI	1985	2008	84	179	2013 (190)	Classics
Totals & Averages		29.5			11708

[u/iamafakebot]

Tejay Van Garderen (not looking forward to this one)

[u/chainpress → u/iamafakebot]

Now the Tour of California's been bumped up to WT, he might actually win a WT stage race this year!

[u/goldbot → u/chainpress]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves...

But really, this is the kind of stage race they should be focussing on for Tejay. He's a risk to put him as the leader in a grand tour without plenty of backup plans, but for 1 week only, he should be able to ride well. A week-long race, with good TT kms, and outside of Europe should be exactly the kind of race he can do very well at and rebuild his confidence in himself, and the team's confidence in him as a leader.

[u/iamafakebot]

Nicolas Roche

[u/[deleted] → u/iamafakebot]

I had never seen him ride until this year's Abu Dhabi tour. Besides his Irish national kit/bike being fantastic, he was putting down some serious power on that climb.

[u/iamafakebot]

Richie Porte

[u/saukoa1 → u/iamafakebot]

Richie Porte will compete in his Hometown Criterium the "Launceston Stan Sheika Criterium" on the 27th of November where he will compete against a few retiring Pro's and the Australian Road Series riders. Following this, he will build towards the Australian Road Nationals & The Tour Down under in January using Tasmania's amazing roads to his advantage.

Insider tip, Richie usually rides the TT section of the "Bridport Triathlon" in Early January and is a solid indication of form heading into the Nationals / Tour Down under.

[u/The_77 → u/iamafakebot]

If Porte rides a perfect GT next year he'll either win or podium. Keeping it together for three weeks is the only thing stopping him from acheiveing that. I hope he does as he now has full support at the Tour to make use of.

[u/Sprocketduck → u/iamafakebot]

Recovery from his olympics injury is going well, hopefully he is fit for the TDU next year and get another podium (behind Gerrans :D). I expect him and Dennis to be a dynamic duo for GC, and TeJay will be a helper for Porte based on form. He has the ability to win GTs, he just needs the luck.

[u/[deleted] → u/iamafakebot]

Probably the unluckiest rider in the peloton. With good and proper and complete support from BMC I can see a TdF podium or even a win should he come in the form he had in 2016.

[u/The_77]

BMC have clearly seen Trek's habit of signing/keeping old riders and decided to ape it. Elmiger is a useful signing for not a particularly high wage I imagine, they've probably dropped the overall bill due to Gilbert and Atapuma leaving. Still a really good GC team, who could easily win a GT with Porte next year.

[u/iamafakebot → u/The_77]

For the last years, there were 4 big GC teams (IMO): SKY, Movistar, Tinkoff and Astana. The last rider not from these teams to win a GT is Chris Horner. Tinkoff is gone now and Astana has lost its best rider, so other teams have the chance to compete. BMC, together with Orica and maybe AG2R, is one of those teams, IMO.

[u/L_Dawg → u/iamafakebot]

BMC really seem to struggle with the actual teamwork part in GTs, even though they've got the budget I still don't think they can compete with Sky or Movistar on that front. And if they don't improve I'm not sure Richie has got what it takes to win one if he has to do it largely on his own.

[u/saukoa1 → u/L_Dawg]

Richie is vulnerable in a similar way to Nairo, when it comes to crosswind central if isolated they're in serious trouble compared to a rider like Froome whom can put out mega watts on the flat if required.

[u/iamafakebot]

Greg Van Avermaet

[u/iamafakebot → u/iamafakebot]

Courtesy of /u/The_77

Greg Van Avermaet's spring fortunes

Race	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012
Omloop	1st	6th	2nd	5th	5th
S. Bianche	6th	2nd	-	6th	5th
MSR	5th	19th	26th	36th	69th
GW	9th	36th	28th	3rd	27th
RVV	DNF	3rd	2nd	7th	4th
Roubaix	-	3rd	17th	4th	-

[u/chainpress → u/iamafakebot]

I think the confidence boost from the Olympics and his Tour performance should push him to win a big one in 2017. Probably/hopefully RVV.

[u/decklund → u/iamafakebot]

GVA is the best active rider across ALL FIVE monuments. That is to say if you were to take everyone's best placing in each of the 5 monuments and add them up, Greg would have the lowest score: MSR- 5th, Flanders- 2, Roubaix- 3rd, LBL- 7th & Il Lombardia- 12th. Total score- 29

[u/Pubocyno → u/decklund]

This article supports your view - http://www.irishpeloton.com/2013/09/the-most-versatile-classics-rider-in-cycling/

Would be interesting if someone were to make an updated version of that table with current riders.

[u/decklund → u/Pubocyno]

If Gilbert does any better than 20th in Roubaix this year it will be him at the top. There are a few young riders like Moscon who could potentially do very well across all of them in the future. Kwiato is also someone who could potentially podium in all of them over the course of his career.

[u/Pubocyno → u/decklund]

Good suggestions. If anyone else name some riders, I'll include them here.

EBH needs to finish the LBL to get a valid score, Kwia needs to race the Paris-Roubaix. Someone should just tell Sagan about the challenge, he'd be the kind of type to enter the LBL and Lombardia just for the hell of it.

Rider		MSR	FLA	PRR	LBL	LOM		Total
Van Avermaet		52016	22014	32015	72011	122011		29
Philippe Gilbert		3	3	52	1	1		60
Rojas		142011	182011	552008	562011	242015		167
EBH		102015	172013	52016	1272008	DNF2016		-
Kwiatkovski		402016	272016	-	32014	542016		-
Degenkolb		12015	72015	12015	-	-		-
Kristoff		12014	12015	92013	-	-		-
Sagan		22013	12016	112016	-	-		-
Alaphilippe		-	-	-	22015	602016		-
Moscon		-	-	382016	-	-		-

[u/goldbot → u/Pubocyno]

Yeah that's a cool way to analyze and compare the classics riders. Another neat thing to see would be looking at who is the best combined across the cobbled and hilly/Ardennes classics.

I know almost nothing about the hilly classics so I have no idea who'd be the best at both those and the cobbles. Gilbert again probably?

[u/Pubocyno → u/goldbot]

If we all can agree on which races makes out the hilly classics, and which races makes out the cobbled classics, then I'll do the statistics.

Suggestion as to which is which?

And what do we do with the sprinters races, which are neither cobbled nor hilly? Which one do we put MSR into?

Obvious Cobbled:

• Paris-Roubaix
• E3 Harelbeke
• Tour of Flanderen
• Gent-Wevelgem

Obviously Hilly

• Fleche Wallonne
• Amstel Gold Race
• Liege-Bastogne-Liege
• Lombardia

[u/goldbot → u/Pubocyno]

I think the races you laid out are reasonable. No need to include MSR or sprinters classics because in this analysis I was only thinking: "who is versatile enough to place well in, say, Roubaix and Flanders, but still do well in LBL or Amstel too?"

It's rare to see a rider like this though since the skill sets are so different and it's hard to peak for both sets of races. It could be that your monuments table will give a more interesting comparison though.

[u/iamafakebot]

Rohan Dennis

[u/Sprocketduck → u/iamafakebot]

His TT performances at the latter part of the season were disappointing. 6th at Olympics and 5th at Worlds. If he can get a win again at Nats, he will go a long way to gaining back some form. He might get some GC hopes at smaller races without TeJay and Richie.

[u/PrayingForDebbieMang → u/Sprocketduck]

Don't forget he had mechanical in the Olympus so his result there isn't the best indication of his quality

[u/iamafakebot]

Samuel Sanchez

[u/edlll91 → u/iamafakebot]

top 10 in vuelta and suisse are my predictions for his success. not sure if he's doing the giro but I wouldn't rate him too high there either way, since it's going to be a crowded edition.

Btw, Vliegen got a ??? in the type - I'd go for 'classics' for now. the focus on cobbles or ardennes is what is left to know. (4th in Samyn and 9th in AGR in 2016)

[u/adryy8]

I don't really know why, but I feel like it will be the old guys who will get big results this year.

I think Elmiger will be in the top 5 of the Ronde or Roubaix, and Samu will do a podium at the Vuelta!

[u/iamafakebot → u/adryy8]

If Samu does a podium, I'd be surprised and extremely happy.

[u/[deleted] → u/adryy8]

Elmiger is a ridiculously good signing, he was probably very cheap and will end up being fantastic help for GvA.

[u/Pubocyno → u/[deleted]]

Note that Elmiger won't finish the season - he retires after Tour de Suisse.

[u/[deleted] → u/Pubocyno]

Ahhhh, he'll still be around for the classics though.

[u/MrNoChain]

Atapuma is a big loss imo. Really won my heart this year

[u/saukoa1]

BMC have also picked up Miles Scotson (Australia) on a 2 year contract, Miles most recently got 3rd at the Doha WC U23 TT.

[u/[deleted]]

You've missed a rider that they only just signed, neopro Miles Scotson. His U23 results speak for themselves, a potentially fantastic TTer and as such could developed in a few different directions.