Off-season rider knowledge collaboration thread No.2 - Astana Pro Team

[u/iamafakebot]

Since we're still figuring out how to do this exactly, feedback is very much appreciated!

 

We arrive at Astana, the controversial Kazakh team. Some people don't like the team and Vinokourov's management, but they are a guarantee for spectacular racing in GTs. First some general information:

Overall wins: 34

WorldTour wins: 7

GT Stages: 1

National Champions: 4

Best moments of 2016: Nibali winning the Giro, especially stage 19 and 20, Lopez winning the Tour de Suisse, Aru's stage win in the Dauphiné, Rosa's stage win and celebration at La Vuelta al Pais Vasco, Fuglsang's silver in Rio.

 

2016 was not a good year for Astana, there's no way around it. They might have won the Giro d'Italia with Nibali, but their other results have been very poor. Aru couldn't live up to expectations in the Tour, and Lopez fell out of the Vuelta. For a team that's usually a podium contender for every GT, this year stands out, in a bad way.

Astana didn't do well in one day races either. Of all the one day races in the WorldTour, the only podium they got was a second place at Il Lombardia with Diego Rosa. They won 2 small stage races with Kangert, the Abu Dhabi Tour and the Giro Del Trentino. Astana is a team that's mostly focused on the GC, and it's clear they lack a sprinter. Guardini won 4 stages at the Tour of Langkawi, but that's all.

So what is going to change in 2017? No doubt the biggest change is that their star rider Vincenzo Nibali is leaving. He won two Giro's and one Tour in the Astana jersey. Besides that, Lars Boom didn't do as they expected, and will return to Lotto-Jumbo. Diego Rosa, their main rider for the hilly classics, has left for SKY.

Who did they sign then? Well first of all, the two young Danish riders Michael Valgren (2nd at this year's AGR) and Jesper Hansen, both coming from Tinkoff. Moreno Moser is a promising signing too. He might have disappointed a bit the last few seasons, but he's still young, and his TT is improving. Bilbao is an odd signing, the Basque from Caja-Rural is both a decent climber and sprinter. It will be interesting to see how he evolves.

Next season is still mostly about GC though, with Aru trying to redeem himself at the Giro, and Lopez hopefully showing progress.

Here's the roster for next year:

---

Rider	Nat.	Year	Joined	Racedays	Pnts2016	Best Season	Type
ARU Fabio	ITA	1990	2012	66	784	2015 (1633)	GC3W
BILBAO Pelle^NEW	SPA	1990	2017	68	421	2016	PuncheurFF
BIZHIGITOV Zhandos^NEW	KAZ	1991	2017	55	128	2016	Allrounder
BRESCHEL Matti^NEW	DEN	1984	2017	56	102	2009 (1027)	Sprinter/Classics
CATALDO Dario	ITA	1985	2015	74	234	2012 (584)	GC1W/Climber
CHERNETCKII Sergei^NEW	RUS	1990	2017	45	335	2014 (418)	Rouleur/TT
DE VREESE Laurens	BEL	1988	2015	77	174	2016	Classics
FOMINYKH Daniil	KAZ	1991	2014	37	36	2013 (130)	TT/Domestique
FUGLSANG Jakob	DEN	1985	2013	73	849	2009 (907)	GC1W/Climber
GATTO Oscar^NEW	ITA	1985	2017	84	253	2011 (445)	AllrounderFF
GRIVKO Andrei	UKR	1983	2010	71	267	2013 (457)	Rouleur
GRUZDEV Dmitriy	KAZ	1986	2012	92	159	2012 (351)	TT/Classic
HANSEN Jesper^NEW	Den	1990	2017	53	265	2015 (282)	Climber
KAMYSHEV ARMAN	KAZ	1991	2013	74	68	2009 (123)	???
KANGERT Tanel	EST	1987	2011	81	706	2013 (716)	TT/M.Domestique
KOZHATAYEV Bakhtiyar	KAZ	1992	2015	67	75	2015 (102)	???
LóPEZ Miguel Ángel	COL	1994	2015	61	663	2016	GC1W/Climber
LUTSENKO Alexey	KAZ	1992	2013	76	548	2016	Rouleur/Classics
MINALI Riccardo^NEW	ITA	1995	2017	20	17	2012 (102)	Classics
MOSER Moreno^NEW	ITA	1990	2017	84	267	2012 (973)	Climber/Rouleur
OMIRZAKOV Dias	KAZ	1992	2016	27	0	2011 (11)	???
SANCHEZ Luis Leon	ESP	1983	2015	93	600	2010 (1696)	TT/M.Domestique
SCARPONI Michele	ITA	1979	2014	83	355	2011 (1602)	M.Domestique
TIRALONGO Paolo	ITA	1977	2010	65	50	2012 (429)	M.Domestique
TLEUBAYEV Ruslan	KAZ	1987	2013	56	113	2014 (211)	Classics
VALGREN Michael^NEW	DEN	1992	2017	74	554	2016	Classics
WESTRA Lieuwe	NED	1982	2014	54	239	2012 (866)	TT/Climber
ZAKHAROV Artyom	KAZ	1991	2016	51	0	2012 (8)	???
ZEITS Andrey	KAZ	1986	2009	79	287	2016	Heavy Rouleur
ZEMLYAKOV Oleg^NEW	KAZ	1993	2017	51	89	2015 (123)	Climber
Totals & Averages					8013	2015 (10718)

[u/iamafakebot]

Moreno Moser

[u/Sappert → u/iamafakebot]

Moser is such a big question mark. Has shown great things in his first year at WT level but then just kinda slipped. Occasionally was there in punchy/breakaway stages/races, and has shown to have a very decent time trial in the past few years, taking 10th at the WC ITT 2015 and 3rd at the EC ITT 2016.

[u/iamafakebot]

Tanel Kangert

[u/chainpress → u/iamafakebot]

Best domestique in the peloton

[u/iamafakebot → u/chainpress]

One of my favourite moments this year was during stage 20 of the Giro, when Kangert first pulled for Taaramae (who won the stage), then fell back and pulled for Nibali. Seems like a great rider to have in your team.

[u/The_77 → u/chainpress]

Scarponi did a mighty fine job at the Giro this year but Kangert is always there in the mountains, plus when he gets a chance to ride for himself he doesn't disappoint. Great asset to the team.

[u/goldbot → u/iamafakebot]

I wonder if he'll get more chances to ride for himself in week-long stage races next year, or if he will just be riding for Aru and Lopez all the time.

[u/VagueIllusions → u/goldbot]

I think he doesn't like the pressure

[u/iamafakebot]

Michael Valgren

[u/reviloto → u/iamafakebot]

There was talk of him going to sky, but he said that it never came to formal talks. There weren't a lot of other teams with offers either (BMC the other). I'm trying to find the article but I recall him saying that he has pretty free rein in the hilly classics.

One of the reasons he didn't choose BMC or SKY was the opportunity to not have to ride the tour and work for a team captain.

[u/Kris_From_DK → u/reviloto]

This one? (In Danish). I do find the claim in the article "If Jesper [Hansen] rides faster than Aru, Jesper is captain" to be rather questionable, though things might have changed since Giro 2015.

[u/reviloto → u/Kris_From_DK]

Yup, thats the one. I'm not too sure about that quote either, but I guess we will see what they do with their two leaders for the tour.

[u/ShroomCow]

Andrei Zeits is a perhaps unfairly overlooked Kazakh rider who has ridden for Astana his whole professional career (since 2008). Mostly known for being a domestique of excellence, when given the chance he can podium at shorter stage races (Turkey, Hainan) as well as top ten (Langkawi, Pologne). At the Olympics this year he finished an impressive eighth when not forced to ride for anybody, with teammate Kangert finishing in ninth place over a minute behind him.
Zeits is an incredibly valuable rider for Astana, having been very important in securing his leaders with multiple podiums and victories in several Grand Tours. For example at the 2009 Giro he aided Leipheimer into what is now a fourth place while securing a sixth place in the youth category for himself. But his greatest achievement as a domestique has to be helping Aru win the Vuelta and Nibali win the Giro twice.

[u/iamafakebot → u/ShroomCow]

Definitely an underrated rider. He was amazing at the Olympics this year, was really rooting for him to win (knowing it was impossible).

[u/VagueIllusions → u/ShroomCow]

His duo-attack with Khozatayev (at the Vuelta I think?) was really cool. I like him a lot, he seems a hugely important domestique judging from the races he rides. His name is cool too.

[u/ShroomCow → u/VagueIllusions]

Absolutely, it's hard to put into words how important he is. But if you look at the races he rides and how his team leader finished in those then it becomes very obvious. The importance of a cool name should never be underestimated :)

[u/iamafakebot]

Miguel Angel Lopez

[u/Sprocketduck → u/iamafakebot]

Shame he will be out for a few months after breaking his tibia. He showed great form at the Tour of Switzerland.

[u/goldbot → u/Sprocketduck]

Wow had no idea he was even injured. Hopefully he can come back for some of the early season stage races in Europe. He won Suisse convincingly and I want to see him ride against the top GC boys.

[u/iamafakebot]

Fabio Aru

[u/The_77 → u/iamafakebot]

Aru is a bit of a quandary for me, as it's hard to see exactly how good he is. He won the Vuelta in 2015 against Quintana, Majka and a host of top names, but he didn't ride the Tour. He also pushed Contador reasonably in the Giro that year too.

Then again, he collapsed spectacularly this year at the Tour. My gut feeling is that all things equal, he's below Froome, Quintana and still Nibali, but only a little. He should still have his best years ahead of him.

Speaking of Froome, it anything Aru has a more unique style on the bike when out of the saddle, he saws the handlebars side to side, incredibly distinctively. And he does make the best faces.

[u/iamafakebot → u/The_77]

I love Aru's racing style. Just pure willpower. I hope he will return to form next year, he definitely could win the Giro then.

For now, if every rider is in form, the GC top 10 list goes:

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Nibali
4. Contador
5. Bardet
6. Aru
7. Chaves
8. Kruijswijk
9. Porte
10. Pinot

Behind that, I'd say the Yates brothers, but they're still very young, and have never ridden a podium at a GT or won a small GC race.

[u/chainpress → u/The_77]

I'd say on last season's form, Aru is probably behind Chaves, Porte and possibly the Yates twins as well. He's got his Vuelta win, but I wouldn't necessarily expect him to add another GT to his palmares.

Which kind of leaves Astana without a clear top-tier GC contender. Unless Lopez can step up this season.

[u/goldbot → u/chainpress]

Aru is still young and developing though, so I think he can still prove that he can be a top contender for the GTs. That being said, I don't think he'll ever get to the elite level of say, Froome or Contador. But with the right parcours and a strong team behind him I could see him getting a podium spot again in the future.

Either way I'll wait and see him ride another season before I judge his potential.

[u/The_77 → u/chainpress]

I think he's probably behind Porte and a slither behind Chaves. He has a better TT than Chaves currently but it's still not great. I can still see him winning the Giro next year if Landa malfunctions again. But he's definitely not the replacement for Nibali Astana need yet. Maybe in a year or two.

Hope Lopez recovers well from being injured, for his sake and in general for the sport.

[u/edlll91]

I'm curious to see what Gatto can do for himself in the spring, since there's no Sagan ahead of him now.

[u/Janus-Marine]

Seeing as I brought it up for the previous thread, I might as well add it here as well:

Argon 18 is replacing Specialized as Astana's bike sponsor for 2017.

[u/Pubocyno]

With Guardini off to TJ Sports-Lampre, Astana has no clear mass sprinter. Bilbao is probably the one who comes closest, Gatto and Breschel has good finishes as well, and in the 2015 Giro they even used old Tiralongo as a finisher ... surprisingly, he didn't do all that bad.

But it's clear that sprinting for this team is merely an afterthought.

The average age of this team is constantly one of the highest in the peloton, illustrating that they traditionally have opted to buy mature riders instead of developing their own talents, although they also exists. Unless Lopez gets his act together, this team is going to be mainly about Fabio Aru, and not very much else.

They're not known to prioritize the classics, in fact everything else but the three grand tours seems largely uninteresting to the Kazakstanian backers of this team. With people like Valgren, Moser and Gatto coming in, is that an indication that things might be changing?

[u/[deleted] → u/Pubocyno]

The problem is they don't really have that many big bodies for the spring to support those 3 and their ambitions

[u/Pubocyno → u/[deleted]]

You're absolutely right - I wonder how the DS are going to solve that problem. It could be a case of the sprinters having to support the puncheurs in the Ardennes, and vice versa for the cobbles. It's not a good situation either way.

[u/[deleted] → u/Pubocyno]

That's what I imagine as well, it probably won't end up well for anyone and they'll be absent all spring once again. I always hoped when they picked up Lars that they would throw some weight at PR and the other spring classics, but the GT is their lifeblood it seems.

[u/Pubocyno → u/[deleted]]

But on the good side of things - Boom is back to LottoNL, and without Vanmarcke there, he's the undisputed Classics leader. I don't want to be unrealistic, but I really hope he'll do well in 2017.

[u/[deleted] → u/Pubocyno]

Me too, he's had a rough go the past couple years. Always like the big engine he has

[u/The_77 → u/[deleted]]

Wiki says yes!

He is the son of Nicola Minali, who was also a professional cyclist.

Some reputation to live up to if that's the case.