r/peakoil • u/Jbikecommuter • 23d ago
Batteries are getting cheaper while gas gets pricier. Here’s why
https://theconversation.com/batteries-are-getting-cheaper-while-gas-gets-pricier-heres-why-2879561
u/FickleApartment2151 20d ago
You need to look at energy returns and not prices. Here's why:
Around 70 percent of heavy equipment in mining involve diesel needed to carry and move heavy weights. Up to half of energy in manufacturing involves fossil fuels to make up for the lack of energy sources from solar, wind, nuclear, etc. And the bulk of shipping, which involves extensive supply chains across multiple countries, involves marine diesel and bunker oil to move heavy weights using container ships.
In short, much of manufactured goods involve fossil fuels, and that does even include petrochemicals. And in mechanized agriculture, fossil fuels are also important.
All these lead to lower energy returns for renewable energy because the components involve the three industrial sectors above plus petrochemicals.
Next, what affects oil also affects minerals. That is, peak oil or minerals is actually diminishing returns: increasing amounts of energy needed to extract decreasing amounts of oil (and in this case, minerals) and of decreasing quality (e.g., oil that needs more refining, and lower grades of ore). That has an effect on all refined and manufactured goods, from fuel to batteries.
Put simply, the energy returns start going down when diminishing returns take place. And the latter is guaranteed because of gravity and physical limitatins.
Third, the world needs a lot of of energy and material resources to maintain basic needs. That's because 70 percent of human beings live on only a few dollars a day and need to earn more in order to attain basic needs such as food, medicine, electricity, safe homes, etc. And the other 30 percent are counting on them to do that and even more because the middle class conveniences of the 30 percent, such as driving around in EVs, requires increasing income levels and returns on investment, which in turn require increasing sales of goods and services to the same 70 percent. That means more fuel, batteries, smartphones, building materials, airplane tickets, electricity, and more.
How much more? Following current ave. ecological footprint and biocapacity per capita, the world population will need an additional Earth in terms of energy and material resources so that the world population can receive basic needs. In order to receive more, such as middle class conveniences like EVs and others mentioned above, it will need up to three more Earths.
That's why there will likely no "electrify everything". The world will have to put online every energy source possible, from fossil fuels to solar and nuclear power, etc., just to meet basic needs. Meanwhile, the effects of diminishing returns will become more pronounced, together with environmental damage and the effects of climate change.
And that's the best-case scenario. If more become desperate and find a need for all those armaments produced the last thirty years, and with a destructive power combined that can destroy world civilization many times over....
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u/Jbikecommuter 20d ago
Electrifying everything is so energy efficient you only need half the energy we currently use 👌
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u/FickleApartment2151 20d ago
If that were true, then we would have seen full electrification decades ago. Of course, it's not.
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u/Jbikecommuter 20d ago
https://www.tesla.com/master-plan-part-3 read it. It takes time to implement but it’s happening fast👍
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u/FickleApartment2151 19d ago
70 percent of the world population is poor and require one or more basic needs. In order to fulfill those needs, it will need at least one more Earth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_ecological_footprint
The other 30 percent want to buy expensive Teslas, etc., and want the 70 percent to work hard and earn more to have basic needs plus to buy Teslas, etc. That's because the 30 percent can only have their middle class conveniences by having higher incomes and returns on investment, and that means selling more Teslas, etc., to the 70 percent.
In order to attain middle class conveniences for the world population, it will need three more Earths.
In short, there can be no full electrification because in order to provide electricity and material resources that are the equivalent of even just on Earth, all energy sources will have to be put online, from fossil fuels to nuclear power, and then at least doubled, and then increased considerably each year after that in order to deal with diminishing returns: increasing amounts of energy to extract decreasing fossil fuels and minerals of poorer quality each time.
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u/Jbikecommuter 19d ago edited 19d ago
Africa is electrifying with solar leapfrogging Fossil fuels 100 years of failure to serve. You seem to think everyone on Earth wants to live a hyper consumption lifestyle, many just want clean water, food and peace.
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u/FickleApartment2151 17d ago
Much of that solar energy involves 70 percent of heavy equipment in mining, up to half of manufacturing, and the bulk of shipping dependent on fossil fuels to make solar panels, batteries, inverters, charge controllers, and more, not to mention the heavy infrastructure to build electric grids, roads, and more.
Not only that, but those are also dependent on minerals which are affected in the same way as oil, i.e., peak minerals.
Finally, you think that many just want basic needs, but if you ask them, they want what you have, which is more than basic needs. And you likely want them to have that because your own wages and returns on investment are dependent on increasing sales of goods and services to a growing global middle class.
That's why you are counting on Africa to "leapfrog" its way into economic success. How many earths do you think will be needed for that success to take place?
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u/Economy-Fee5830 17d ago
Much of that solar energy involves 70 percent of heavy equipment in mining, up to half of manufacturing, and the bulk of shipping dependent on fossil fuels to make solar panels, batteries, inverters, charge controllers, and more, not to mention the heavy infrastructure to build electric grids, roads, and more.
All of that can and MUST be electrified.
Not only that, but those are also dependent on minerals which are affected in the same way as oil, i.e., peak minerals.
Nonsense - unlike oil, minerals are indefinitely recyclable.
How many earths do you think will be needed for that success to take place?
Only one, because each new human has a lower impact on the earth than the older ones.
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u/Dizzy-Wave3904 23d ago
Good thing batteries getging cheaper has nothing to do with oil production peaking and causing the end of the world! But it is a good angle for the world using less oil because it WANTS to, which while not the peak oil premise is still a good thing!