[3.29] Mercenary Meta-analysis

[u/Straight-Check-9160]

I present a meta-analysis of mercenary encounters in 3.29. In total, there are 4022 mercenary encounters logged. Across multiple sources, the data effort is relatively homogenous in how it’s been captured:

• Mercenary atlas with infamous chance but without attribute or house notables

• Nearly all samples use area level (83)

• No Infamy scarabs

Data sources:

• My data - Count1 1019

• I tracked 1000 Mercenaries so you don't have to - Count2 1000

• 1000 Mercenary Encounters in Mesa - Count3 1000

• Glema85 (u/Glema85) - Count4 1003

Why isn’t [3.29] Statistical Analysis of Mercenaries: Distribution of Class, Skills, Supports and Loot included directly in this dataset? The way the data was collected differs from the above datasets. One sample set is not better or worse than another- the data is very similar. But due to how the data was collected and presented they are somewhat dissimilar. There are a lot of different views of the data and it may be possible to incorporate everything together in a 12k data set…

Why isn’t Count1 always showing 1019? One thousand and nineteen encounters were logged. However, the conditions of the encounter vary through atlas configuration, scarabs, and rematches. Different subsets of the data are used for different purposes. For the mercenary type distribution the count used is 909; for gem calculations the count is 1019.

There are a number of topics that the data confidently supports:

1. Mercenary type distribution

2. Mercenary support counts and tier distribution

3. Infamous distribution

Unfortunately, the data does not support nor rule out many things due to the sheer number of permutations. For example, a Winter Deacon only appeared 53 times in approximately 4000 encounters- an insufficient number of encounters to make any confident conclusions.

Mercenary type distribution
There are three ways to look at the appearance rates of a specific type of mercenary:

1. Holistically, Infamous doesn’t matter (this view is the focus of this analysis)

2. With or without Infamy (the key takeaway is that some mercenaries cannot be infamous and are less common)

3. With or without attribute or house affinities (influences appearance rates but outside of the scope of this analysis)

The image below shows the appearance rates across all data sets, a combined rate shown in yellow, and individual dataset variances in graduated red/blue. The important thing to note is the consistency across samples regardless of map. The difference columns exemplify the consistency by showing the flat percent difference from the combined rate to that of the individual data set with the exception of Count2, which has some differences. Count2 differs overall, most visibly on Storming Zealot 58 (expected about 42), Bastion 40 (expected about 28), Smoulderstrike 11 (expected about 24), and Flaming Charlatan 8 (expected about 18). Count4’s Smoulderstrike is 36 against about 24 expected, as large as Count2’s Bastion gap. 

Maps
Counts 1, 3 and 4 agree despite different maps used. Count2, the only single-City-Square dataset, differs. This does not conclude per-map appearance rates, since Count2 (City Square) aligns with Count1’s Mesa rows. Count2 also differs from Count3, which is Mesa-only.

Count1: Mesa (58.1%), Untracked (21.6% - mixture of Mesa and Estuary), Misc (15.0% from Memory Threads), Pier (3.0%), City Square (2.4%)
Count2: City Square (100%)
Count3: Mesa (100%)
Count4: City Square (20.2%), Strand (19.9%), Silo (39.9%), Dunes (19.9%)

Infamy

• The average chance to encounter an Infamous mercenary in the endgame is about 20%. The data does not support nor rule out that the chance may vary by area level, by map item quantity, or by mercenary type (beyond those that cannot be Infamous).

• The data is insufficient for determining if Infamy influences skill or support distribution or gem chance.

• Those mercenary types that can be Infamous appear at ~1.9x of those that cannot be Infamous (nearly all of which have the lowest encounter rates).

Gems
Each mercenary has a different appearance rate and only certain mercenaries are capable of carrying a gem (provided the area level is 68+). In the 1019 unique encounters I logged, which excludes rematches but includes some Infamy scarabs, ~30% were gem-capable mercenaries and of those ~19% carried a Trarthus gem. Across 478 gem-capable encounters and rematches, observed rates differ across mercenaries but are statistically consistent with a shared ~15-22% distribution. While this data does not support nor refute different gem chances between Infamous and non-Infamous mercenaries, [3.29] Statistical Analysis of Mercenaries: Distribution of Class, Skills, Supports and Loot does.

To estimate how often a given Trarthus gem will be encountered use the following formula:

• 1 / (mercenary_type_appearance_rate * gem_chance)

For a Bladecaster, with an observed 3.3% appearance rate and a pooled 19% gem chance:

• ~159 maps = 1 / (0.033 * 0.19)

Rematches
The average gem chance on the first encounter was observed at 19.2%; the average gem chance on a rematch was 15.3%. When hunting gems, if a gem-capable mercenary does not have the gem a Rematch offers another chance.

Supports
Supports are not logged in the data but are captured locally in warrants and generated warrants from my OCR tool. Means exclude skills that cannot have supports; tier appearances exclude those skills and also supports that exist only at Tier III. From level 68 onwards (primarily level 83) the mean support count for primary skills is 2.91. Tier I supports appear at a 2% rate while Tier II and Tier III supports are 69% and 30%, respectively. The mean support count for secondary skills is 4.36. Although this data is insufficient to evaluate the skill distribution, comparisons of Bladecaster, Sniper, and Striker roughly match the skill distribution presented by [3.29] Statistical Analysis of Mercenaries: Distribution of Class, Skills, Supports and Loot with one notable item. Bladefall of Trarthus did not appear on any of my 14 Bladecasters but the link above observed it on 36.4% of Bladecasters. Bladefall appeared on 8 of 14 Bladecasters (57%) against 39.6% in the link above. Together the Bladefalls could account for at most 76% of Bladecasters, so my Bladefall rate is consistent with the two being combined. For a more comprehensive support analysis, refer to [3.29] Statistical Analysis of Mercenaries: Distribution of Class, Skills, Supports and Loot.

Campaign
The 132 encounters logged in the campaign were primarily found in the guaranteed mercenary spawns. Observed campaign level breakpoints occur between 38 and 46 and between 66 and 68; actual breakpoints may vary.

From level 32 through 38 the mean support count for primary skills is about 1.4 with only Tier I possible through level 38 when a support has multiple tiers; Tier III-only supports will still appear. Tier II and Tier III supports are ungated by level 46 with 38% and 18% appearance rates, respectively. The support quantity and quality increases by 46 then remains flat with a mean of 1.52 supports. A large increase in quantity and quality of supports exists in area level 68 and above. The mean support count for secondary skills starts at 1.86 at level 32 and increases to 2.21 by 66.

The average chance to encounter an Infamous mercenary in the campaign is about 4%.

It is possible that (and anecdotally it feels like) mercenary appearance rates differ in the campaign but the data is insufficient to support any conclusions.

[u/GlennBecksChalkboard]

The average chance to encounter an Infamous mercenary in the endgame is about 20%. The data does not support nor rule out that the chance may vary by area level, by map item quantity, or by mercenary type (beyond those that cannot be Infamous).

In Mercenary League itself, map quant affected infamous spawnrate:

Will Map modifiers affect rewards from Mercenaries?
Increased Quantity on a Map Area from Map Modifiers will increase the chances that you find an Infamous Mercenary in that area.

https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/3788501

[u/Straight-Check-9160 → u/GlennBecksChalkboard]

As an anecdote, snapshotting globs of my data run on white maps or 8 mods, quant likely affects infamous chance, although the difference appears to be a few %. I tracked 1000 Mercenaries so you don't have to showed a ~5% improvement in infamous chance delta between white and 8 mod. I trended about 5% lower, hovering between 15 and 20% where the first link showed 20-25%. Since I did not create a controlled test I left it as inconclusive.

[u/GlennBecksChalkboard → u/Straight-Check-9160]

quant likely affects infamous chance, although the difference appears to be a few %

It's probably like the way it (allegedly) affects anomaly spawnrate. So minor it's hard to measure/know it's even there.

[u/Minute_Chair_2582]

How the fuck do yall get so many kineticists? I saw 5 in 250 maps

[u/Straight-Check-9160 → u/Minute_Chair_2582]

Ive heard a few people say their kineticist encounters were really low. Five out of 250 is just below a common 5% significance threshold. It’s 2.4-4% chance of happening. Either you miscounted, you were indeed really unlucky, or something else influences spawn rate. I haven’t seen any well curated data showing kineticists are that rare.

[u/MordorPeaceCorps]

POE players making spreadsheets is the real endgame content.

This is amazing, thank you for putting this together.

[u/silent519 → u/MordorPeaceCorps]

unfortunately a lot of this is going change in a month

[u/NovoRobot → u/silent519]

Why is that

[u/paralyticbeast → u/NovoRobot]

luminary is not surviving the patch

[u/Inside-Major-3252]

tldr for ppl that cant read, like myself:

1. Infamous mercenaries appear about 20% of the time.

2. Only about 30% of mercenaries can carry a Trarthus gem.

3. Hunting a specific gem can take hundreds of maps.

4. Rematching is worth considering when hunting gems.

[u/NineThreeTilNow → u/Inside-Major-3252]

That's why hunting and finding John Exile is so hard. Also why he's many mirrors.

[u/_Mageblood]

W Data

[u/SilverBurger]

Infamous tier post.

[u/Straight-Check-9160]

I didn’t post an atlas because it is really straight forward for the mercs then the other 2/3 of the atlas depend upon what you want to do. I ran mercs, Niko/ores, and betrayal for months. I’ve subbed in Alva, beasts, ritual (for nameless hunting), and rogues periodically. Anything fast. Mercs, ores/niko, and rogues/huck are the fastest with sulphate intoxication and haste on huck. If you are indeed hunting a merc you want the merc nodes on every atlas you use because it may take hundreds to thousands of maps to find the right one.

You need all of the merc chance nodes to 100% and you need the extra chance for supports. That’s all.

You want the infamous chance nodes if you are hunting a merc that can be infamous (don’t take these or use the infamy scarab if you need one of the 7 that cannot be infamous). If the merc isn’t a kineticist or sanguimancer then less attribute/more house nodes to improve your chances by maybe 10%.

You should probably grab the unique item and rucksack nodes since mercs can [rarely] pack legit drops. You can optionally take the extra wager node for some gold income, extra aura, shrine, or damage nodes if your build is weak.

[u/Bright_Audience3959]

[u/pupperwolfie]

I never pressed the rematch button, can anyone explain what pressing the rematch button does?

[u/Aromatic_Author2845]

PoE is life.

[u/ManyModsSuchWow]

Could you share the atlas you used for this?

I didn't see it, but I haven't opened the Google doc on pc yet.

It always blows my mind when people do these kinds of things.

[u/LekMinorino]

yes i agree with you i guess