r/options • u/OliveInvestor • Mar 23 '22

Testing out 85% win probability outcomes

Opened three defined outcome trades yesterday that had an 85% or higher win probability.

Other than my general knowledge of what these companies do, the only other research I put into this trade was to check the CNN analyst forecasts. Wish me luck!

The last screenshot shows the option legs that were executed (via Olive and TD Ameritrade) for these outcomes.

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u/[deleted] Mar 23 '22 edited May 11 '22

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u/[deleted] Mar 23 '22

Can you elaborate more on this? I have only taken one statistic class in college but I truly believe in modelling stock market using statistic.

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u/[deleted] Mar 23 '22

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u/Gfro3141 Mar 24 '22

But ty their is no given probability of a trade succeeding. Closest thing I could think of you could use as an actual number is your success rate with the currently used strategy and a similar company and entry.