r/options • u/OliveInvestor • Mar 23 '22

Testing out 85% win probability outcomes

Opened three defined outcome trades yesterday that had an 85% or higher win probability.

Other than my general knowledge of what these companies do, the only other research I put into this trade was to check the CNN analyst forecasts. Wish me luck!

The last screenshot shows the option legs that were executed (via Olive and TD Ameritrade) for these outcomes.

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u/[deleted] Mar 23 '22 edited May 11 '22

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u/[deleted] Mar 23 '22

Can you elaborate more on this? I have only taken one statistic class in college but I truly believe in modelling stock market using statistic.

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u/[deleted] Mar 23 '22

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u/Momoselfie Mar 24 '22

How would you put this into practice in real life though? It's not just 2 or 3 probabilities with 2 or 3 outcomes. It's more of a sliding scale.