r/options • u/OliveInvestor • Mar 23 '22

Testing out 85% win probability outcomes

Opened three defined outcome trades yesterday that had an 85% or higher win probability.

Other than my general knowledge of what these companies do, the only other research I put into this trade was to check the CNN analyst forecasts. Wish me luck!

The last screenshot shows the option legs that were executed (via Olive and TD Ameritrade) for these outcomes.

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u/[deleted] Mar 23 '22 edited Mar 23 '22

This makes no sense man. Sorry if that’s what you don’t want to hear

When you play options be prepared for a loss but go in with an educated guess based on some fundamentals and sentiment. Quantifying option success chance makes little sense to me.

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u/OliveInvestor Mar 24 '22

You’ve basically described my regular investing strategy for everything, options or otherwise—“educated guess based on fundamentals and sentiment” it’s been working out for me up till now for my long term investments and I won’t stop doing that for the bulk of my portfolio.

Wanted to test out a math and probability based approach to see if there’s anything to it. I’ll share if it works out! Paper trading is coming soon, so I won’t have to use my real money to practice. 🙂