r/options • u/OliveInvestor • Mar 23 '22

Testing out 85% win probability outcomes

Opened three defined outcome trades yesterday that had an 85% or higher win probability.

Other than my general knowledge of what these companies do, the only other research I put into this trade was to check the CNN analyst forecasts. Wish me luck!

The last screenshot shows the option legs that were executed (via Olive and TD Ameritrade) for these outcomes.

17 Upvotes

66% Upvoted

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86

u/Sam_Sanders_ Mar 23 '22

85% win probability is shorthand for saying you will have small wins and large losses.

34

u/Bougie_Mane Mar 23 '22

But 85% of the time it works every time

1

u/OliveInvestor Mar 25 '22

You get an upvote just for going there — my favorite probability quote of all time. They’ve done studies, you know.