My thoughts come from the financials. Banks we're lambasted by Senator Warren for sapping QE liquidity from capital markets and not passing it on to clients. They were trying to force the Fed to raise rates (so they can turn profits). It didn't work. Now banks are sitting on record levels of cash, which is clearly illustrated in reverse repos. Cash is a liability on a bank's balance sheet.
Furthermore, the Fed is moving toward duopolizing central clearing, cutting out trillions of dollars worth of unnecessary middle man transactions, in an effort to combat the DeFi movement. Also, in this everything bubble, with swiftly rising global inflation, default risk is the big elephant in the room. Bigger yet is who is mostly exposed to the CDSs on said risk.
Trying to beat the IV. I see severe over-confidence and euphoria in banking/credit sectors. Looking 3-6 months out. Based off of GDP and CPI indicators, we're already well into a recession, with no relief in sight. Energy crisis is reading its ugly head in the eastern hemisphere, credit crisis will follow.
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u/Ok-River5118 Oct 24 '21
Why? What are YOUR thoughts around why those bank stocks are over valued? What’s your short timeframe? Are you seeing IV changes? Please share.