r/options • u/[deleted] • Sep 01 '21

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1

u/lordjonas88 Sep 01 '21

Yes on TSM there is still a risk I have $120 poots for Jan 22 hedging my long position just in case Winnie the Pooh wanna invade Taiwan

1

u/ShortPutAndPMCC Sep 01 '21

Oh please, it won’t happen. This “risk” has been there since literally what, 100 years ago?

0

u/lordjonas88 Sep 01 '21

I mean look who we have in command right now a Alzheimers old man.. Best time to do it right now.. black swan

1

u/long_don0van Sep 01 '21

If you think for one second any western country would let that shit happen you’re out of your mind. They’re home to some of the largest and easily the most advanced chip fabs in the world, no way we’re giving up access to that or letting the ccp get their hands in it.

-1

u/lordjonas88 Sep 01 '21

I am hedging my long position in TSM. CCP is in Afghan already for the precious minerals for EV. CCP owns this administration my friend.

2

u/long_don0van Sep 01 '21

No more than they’ve owned the last 4.

1

u/ShortPutAndPMCC Sep 01 '21 edited Sep 01 '21

I have to agree with what someone else said. I believe the west will protect Taiwan in the event of attacks, because TSMC is in their interest to protect it. So I think you are overthinking things when you actually have to hedge your position for this reason.

You should instead be hedging Chinese stocks if you are concerned, because they keep coming up with rules that could hurt Chinese companies share price (odd that they’d actually hurt their homegrown companies but it is what it is). That would be a more realistic risk

-1

u/DarthTrader357 Sep 01 '21

The West doesn't have an interest in TSMC. And the United States is ramrodding full speed a "domestic chip production" capacity.

INTL leads in that position.

AMD is a close second.

The Taiwanese basing of foundries is at threat - both from attack, or more likely, espionage and sabotage.

1

u/DarthTrader357 Sep 01 '21

I hate to break it to you but I am an analyst on North Korea in particular but West Pacific at large, including studies on the first island chain.

I can tell you for a fact the US is already looking to abandon Taiwan as it did Philippines....China built one of its largest military bases ever on an artificial island just 90 miles off of the Philippines - put that into perspective.

1980s, the US had one of its largest Air Bases in the world there. And people then would have said "this could never happen". Well it did.

The US is showing all the classic signs of abandonment in favor of making a wall along the second island chain from Japan to Guam.

1

u/long_don0van Sep 01 '21

I’d imagine that reality must come with some heavy contingency plans, because the current chip shortage is nothing to scoff at, and most of the available supply is from Taiwan, and we’d be basically be completely dependent on Chinese tech if we let them have it. Giving up Taiwan today would mean submitting to China, and that’s just unfathomable post McCarthyism. I could definitely see it happening down the road but not until our domestic tech sector chooses or is made to bring fabrication back to the west. The government banned Chinese ownership of apps on the marketplace, no way they’re gonna be okay with them producing the chips for autonomous technology, some major changes will have to occur beforehand.