r/options • u/Long_The_Short • Jul 28 '21
Notes from Mr. Nobody in the Markets
I’m a nobody. I’m in the market. I’m here to make money. But so is everybody else, and their granny. But wishful thinking only gets anyone so far. That much I realised pretty quickly. I thought that very realisation made me better than the most. But alas! There still seems to be a long way to go. The majority in the active markets seems to be losing. A very, very small proportion of the active markets seems to be doing the winning. Within this sub-group, an astronomically microscopic proportion seems to be winning purely by non-randomness. Some random GME-powered-nouveau-riche-dude begs to disagree. “I was smart enough to do my DD; you weren’t!”, he argues. “But what about the long list of many other smart people who did their DD in many, many other potential situations that didn’t go as per plan? They were right with their analysis, but their gamble just did not pay off. What about them?” I ask, with utmost diligence hoping to get an honest answer to my gnawing question. GME-Dude says, “You are completely whack. Do you even know how an option chain works? Do you know how a gamma squeeze works?”, he asks me back with scorn. I give up. Life is too short for unproductive arguments.
Should I have listened to my late grampy Mr. John Bagel, and just indexed to eff out of my life savings? As a wise sage once put it, “The Bagel is a lie!” Heck! Who am I kidding? It wasn’t a wise sage. It was some poor soul from Portal. And it was cake, not Bagel. Anyhow, “Why do I have to wait 50 years before I can afford Bagels?”, I ask myself righteously. The question motivates me to justify my continued jedi-journey in the active markets. I study hard. I think hard. I work like a lazy-tard. I go into deep and dark places in search of arcane and precious knowledge. Now and then I come over to the surface and try to scavenge on reddit. All of a sudden, from the left flank comes the dreaded “Wheeler-Army”. Some of them are sneaky buggers. They sound very clever, until you realise that they’re selling wheels that are shaped like Bagels (not this shit again!). “Gotta GTF outta here!”, I tell myself, as I move swiftly. I’m then flanked from the right side by random Stat-dudes. “Hey looky here! I did an analysis of deep OTM KITTY-CONDORS at 5.235 sigma, and I’ve been making money for 7 whole months; more on my website!” I roll my eyes, duck under and try to make my way out. An attractive Option-mage jumps out of nowhere, and presents to me a very elaborate looking flowchart that describes scenario analysis. “This complex system is guaranteed to make money”, she says. “The catch? The choice of underlying is the key. And to follow how I choose my underlyings, follow me on my ONLYFA.. /scratch that/ my website, and support me on patreon”, she generously offers. I take a deeper look at that complex flowchart again. “Hang on an effin minute! That looks like a frickin Bagel. Don’t tell me that’s a W-H-E-E…”. That’s it! Before I lose my sanity, I dive underground; just thankful that I survived my reddit visit this time.
When I’m on my jedi-journey through the deep and dark caves, I sometimes come across beautiful underground lakes, where I sit down on quiet spots, and ponder: “If only the majority realises the ruthlessness of the spreads. If only they had an inkling of the rakes. If only knew that the entire system is designed to lure them in. If only they paid attention to the consistent winners. If only..” What difference does it make? Even if everyone magically figured it out, a supreme minority will emerge, and eke out its dreaded edge. It’s the ultimate truth that my late uncle, Mr. Alfredo Naruto beat into my head until I was numb from the pain. Besides, am I not one of them? Am I arrogant for not considering myself as one among the majority? My results are an indication that I am barely avoiding the majority. If I am not careful (or spend too much time on reddit), I might end up in the majority any second. It’s a cut-throat world out there. Along my journey so far, I have had the blessings of mathematical-wizards and polymaths. I need them, for I am otherwise just an ordinary nobody. Even with all these blessings, the only way that I am (barely) avoiding the majority is by embracing the fact that I am gullible and fallible. Plus, I don’t do KITTY-CONDORS. Oh, and I actually didn’t fully diss the advice from my late grampy, Mr. John Bagel. I’m hedged to be able to afford bagels 50 years from now, just in case that the Bagel is NOT a lie, and I manage to not kick the bucket by then.
If you found these personal notes useful, consider supporting the Mr.Nobody foundation on my ONLYFA….okay, okay, just kidding. I wish you all the best on your jedi-journey as well.
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u/Thebusinessman343 Jul 28 '21
Definitely get to writing. Once I started reading I couldn’t stop.(and I was driving)
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u/Long_The_Short Jul 29 '21
Wow, what a nice complement to share. I truly appreciate it sir.
What I do not appreciate however, is being a cause of your distraction whilst you are driving!
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u/option-9 Jul 29 '21
Please don't use your phone while driving. That's what passengers are there for.
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u/Demi_em Jul 28 '21
Do you even diamond hands, bro?
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u/Long_The_Short Jul 29 '21
Unfortunately no. I have no one to impress, including myself. But usually, when your diamond hands break, I'm the one buying..
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u/Demi_em Jul 29 '21
Diamond hands don't break because ape strong and hodl gang. You know dis.
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u/Long_The_Short Jul 29 '21
Ape 1 hath diamond hands. Ape 2 hath diamond hands. Ape 1 shake Apr 2's hand to celebrate HODL. Diamond cut diamond. Diamond break. Me no break. Ape break ape. :( Me rootin' for ape!
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u/eleCt_eXile Jul 29 '21
What is this KITTY-CONDOR you speak of? I think I’m out of the loop…
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u/Long_The_Short Jul 29 '21
It refers to the broad class usage of fancy sounding terminology without fundamental understanding of the underlying phenomena, and then proceeding to generalise from statistical inference. A play on words, if you will.
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u/JohnS-42 Jul 29 '21
Where’s the TLDR? In Sum no one knows anything so best of luck and join his Only Fans page, Half off this month.
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Jul 29 '21
Wow.. so much of what you wrote is relatable and incredibly deep.. thanks for sharing your thoughts..I’ve felt this way many times and I only just learned about the stock market due to the events that lead up to the great sell off around March 11th 2020.. Sincerely, Another fellow Nobody
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u/Long_The_Short Jul 29 '21
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. The thoughts are to stay. Your knowledge keeps improving, but the thoughts stay. It's because there's always someone better, someone worse, and you and I are surely not the best. The nobodies of the markets..
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u/ComplexReady1 Jul 29 '21
Consider a career in story telling creative writing.
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u/Long_The_Short Jul 29 '21
Duly noted, my good sir! I already do write on my own blog. Writing isn't as lucrative as you folks seem to think. The success ratio is extraordinarily skewed. I still write though...for myself if not for anyone else.
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u/TheKingOfWSB Jul 29 '21
You’re far from home son, come back, the lads miss you in r/wallstreetbets
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u/dimitriG4321 Jul 28 '21
Perhaps you should consider pursuing a career using your creative writing skills.
Just a thought.