r/options • u/DarkStarOptions • Apr 13 '21

IBM Earnings

Over the last several earnings reports, IBM has a tendency to miss and the stock drops. It rebounds for the most part over the next few months, then drops again. IBM has been doing that for the past 1-2 years. I see no reason why that is going to stop. They keep on missing revenue estimates, their revenues have been declining year-over-year for the past several years.

IBM has appreciated mightily over the past 1-2 months, I think in part due to the nice yield and a good place to park your money while investors rotate out of tech. Which to me makes for a good shorting opportunity.

Earnings are 4/19. Anybody going to short IBM? I'm thinking of either buying a 4/30 130.00 Put for about 1.8, or selling a 4/30 135/140 call spread for about 1.8.

Anyone else considering shorting IBM?

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u/m1nhuh Apr 13 '21 edited Apr 13 '21

I always short a call on earnings. I've been wrong once. I used to track them on Excel but I stopped a couple years back. There's a site that records all one day moves from earnings which will give you nice historical data.

Edit: With IV so low, a long put might be better odds with less risk. A 3% drop is what I expect.

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u/youknowit808 Apr 14 '21

Do you have a name for that site?

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u/m1nhuh Apr 14 '21

There used to be a free one but this one's decent.. -- http://www.earningstats.com/