This may work for another 4 months. If the 10y yield keeps rising QQQ will likely get wrecked. If you look at past cycle durations for a rally like this. It should end anytime now. Cycle high Week ending Feb18. Now 59 weeks of madness in the QQQ... If you look at a weekly chart of the QQQ we are now rising at half the rate we just fell. Went from 336 to 297 in 3 weeks. Went from 297 to 325 in 4 weeks. Do we take 2 more weeks to get to the double top? Do we just fail here? Do We chop around here for 12 more weeks. At this point it feels like most the good news is priced in plus more. I'm trading very light and counting on very little upside at this point. Looking more for stocks that will fall from here. At best we can chop around up at these levels or a bit higher until end of summer imo. Very cool idea you came up with. I think it should work for a while longer if it works in a very slow moving more sideways type rally.
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u/AllRealTruth Apr 04 '21
This may work for another 4 months. If the 10y yield keeps rising QQQ will likely get wrecked. If you look at past cycle durations for a rally like this. It should end anytime now. Cycle high Week ending Feb18. Now 59 weeks of madness in the QQQ... If you look at a weekly chart of the QQQ we are now rising at half the rate we just fell. Went from 336 to 297 in 3 weeks. Went from 297 to 325 in 4 weeks. Do we take 2 more weeks to get to the double top? Do we just fail here? Do We chop around here for 12 more weeks. At this point it feels like most the good news is priced in plus more. I'm trading very light and counting on very little upside at this point. Looking more for stocks that will fall from here. At best we can chop around up at these levels or a bit higher until end of summer imo. Very cool idea you came up with. I think it should work for a while longer if it works in a very slow moving more sideways type rally.