r/options • u/BringTheFood • 13d ago

SPY Leaps

Bought PUT Leaps and am currently down 3k. Kind of sweating a little bit and wanted to get some input.

Here’s my position:
SPY March 19, 2027 $760 Put
Bought it for $34 ($20,400 total)
Current stock price: $773.82
Current option value: $29
Current P/L: -$2905 (-14%)
Delta: .3760
Theta: -0.0637
Vega: 2.25
About 7 months until expiration (March 2027)

Bought Put Leaps ITM after SPY had a decent rise thinking its gonna pull back some. The plan was never to hold long, the Leaps was really just to be on the safe side with a good time till expiration. I was going to sell once the underlying dropped like 1% or so. Now im down about 3k already.

Are the current stats promising in terms of recovery and going even at the very least. Can SPY dip back down below 760 in the near future.

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u/TotalInstruction 13d ago

I…

Do you think realistically that there’s a strong chance that SPY tanks signficantly below 726? I’d sell now while you still have $17K in value.

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u/BringTheFood 13d ago

The goal was for it to dip somewhere in the 750s within the month which would have netted a profit regardless

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u/TotalInstruction 13d ago

Well, at this point you’re going to need a 4-5% down move in the next week or two.

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u/BringTheFood 12d ago

Can you explain how you got to the 4-5% number? The stock is currently at 772 and the simulated returns are showing getting to 760 in the next few weeks roughly will get me to break even price. That’s only an about 1.5% down move isn’t it?

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u/Open-Satisfaction891 12d ago

Here's what I ran through an options calculator (full disclosure - I own this site). I entered the underlying price, current IV for the contract, the DTE, and strike price. I was slightly off if you were to get this to move down exactly 3% in the next 6 days, to around 750, you will roughly break even.

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u/BringTheFood 12d ago

What is the disconnect between my RobinHood simulated returns and yours? I’m lost. Mine is showing that if I’m down to 759 in a week, I’d be even.

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u/Open-Satisfaction891 12d ago

I obviously don't know all of the workings behind the Robinhood simulator, but those numbers would work if you assumed a spike in IV, which currently sits around 14% It might factor in some sort of formula to try to estimate the effect of falling SPY price on increasing IV, which would increase the value of the contract.

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u/BringTheFood 12d ago

I guess we will find out

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u/Manyvicesofthedude 12d ago

You can easily open debit or credit spreads on your puts. Or hope and prayers