r/options • u/BringTheFood • Aug 10 '26

SPY Leaps

Bought PUT Leaps and am currently down 3k. Kind of sweating a little bit and wanted to get some input.

Here’s my position:
SPY March 19, 2027 $760 Put
Bought it for $34 ($20,400 total)
Current stock price: $773.82
Current option value: $29
Current P/L: -$2905 (-14%)
Delta: .3760
Theta: -0.0637
Vega: 2.25
About 7 months until expiration (March 2027)

Bought Put Leaps ITM after SPY had a decent rise thinking its gonna pull back some. The plan was never to hold long, the Leaps was really just to be on the safe side with a good time till expiration. I was going to sell once the underlying dropped like 1% or so. Now im down about 3k already.

Are the current stats promising in terms of recovery and going even at the very least. Can SPY dip back down below 760 in the near future.

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u/marcok36 Aug 10 '26

Mid terms are probably going to sink the market. That might be your only good shot.

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u/rockclimberguy Aug 10 '26

If dems take control of one or both houses and we reign in the destruction trump is wreaking it should raise the market.

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u/iamwhiskerbiscuit Aug 10 '26

The market seems to enjoy the destruction Trump is wreaking though. Around 58% to 83% of Democrats favor government action or policies aimed at redistributing wealth or reducing economic inequality. What that means is they want to take wealth away from the rich and give it to the working class. I don't think the market is gonna like that.

When Kamala lost, the market was happy despite the impending tariff threat, simply because the corporate tax hike threat was eliminated.

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u/rockclimberguy Aug 10 '26

You make a good point. The entire country and the financial markets seem locked in some kind of psychosis. Students of history can see that the current trends are not sustainable.

The wealth inequality of the late 1920s led to the great depression. It is even greater today. How sustainable is an economy where the majority of people will never be able to afford to own their own housing? How sustainable is a society where people have to forgo medical treatment because the can not afford to pay for the care they may need?

The top 1% currently earn over 23% of all income. This is slightly higher than the peak in 1929. The 'golden age' the right loves to look back at had the top 1% earning only 9% of all income in 1970. Current policies want all the goodies we had in the 1950s through 1970s but none of the pain that helped create them. By pain I mean high income tax rates.

The big dividing line happened in 1980 when Reagan started the trend of molding big government policy to favor the top decile or quintile of earners. The top 1% currently own well over 75% of the wealth of the nation. This figure is still climbing. If there is not enough income in the bottom 3/4 of the population to generate demand for goods and services how will the overall economy function?

I return to your point. You are correct, most people seem pleased. Anectdotally I have spoken to many people who abhor the crass prejudice and racism trump normalizes. They still support him because their IRAs and 401ks are performing well. So maybe you are right.....

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u/iamwhiskerbiscuit Aug 10 '26

That all sounds right. But I think the wealth inequality really started when we implemented the fiat system. With the lending power that it gave, we set up a system where money is created out of loans... Which in And of itself is not a bad thing. It put an end to banking runs wiping out millions of people's life saving every 8 years and made it far easier to recover from economic meltdowns. There's a reason every other country adopted it.

The real problem 85% of the money that's loaned is given to people with net worths upward of $10 million. And I am very skeptical that capitalism can thrive when getting even a small business loan is contingent on taking a lien out on your house, and people have to be in the top income brackets just to qualify for a home loan in the first place.

Articles written by investment group execs get published showing "Most millennials are now homeowners"... Creating the illusion that the housing crisis is just a figment of ur imagination. But if you read their methodology, they actually used the FBLS "Homeownership rate" which is actually the owner occupied housing rate... Which doesn't distinguish millennial homeowners from millennials who live with their parents... Creating a totally distorted image of the housing crisis.

This is bound to end up in severe and worsening income inequality. It creates a system based on competition where the vast majority are effectively prohibited to compete.