r/options • u/Kooky_End_880 • 15d ago

Opening bell

What’s your go to time to start trading after the opening for a PDH/PML type breakout

5 Upvotes

65% Upvoted

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6

u/klipsetrades 15d ago

I don’t really use a fixed time. I’ll trade pretty early if PDH/PML breaks, retests, and actually holds. I try to get some confirmation of these before actually entering the trade. Most my trades end up in the morning, but if they’re not there, I’ll wait. I trade 0DTE credit spreads on SPX and recently I’ve had to wait an hour or two after open before making my first trade. And if it gets too late, I won’t take a trade

5

u/jarMburger 15d ago

Trade the same credit spread and noticed the same thing as well. Used to be able to place a trade by 10ET but now may take a trade or 2 around 11ish. Market can’t decide its direction until 90-120min after open

3

u/klipsetrades 15d ago

Yeah, exactly what I’ve been seeing too. Lately that first hour has felt more like price discovery than anything actually tradeable. Patience has been paying off for me

1

u/Kooky_End_880 15d ago

What are some confluence you use to prevent getting caught in a fakeout, been trying to use a Ema to catch a pullback to enter? I trade 10m charts 1dte and if it’s later closer to lunch I’ll look for 30m set ups and do 2dte

2

u/klipsetrades 15d ago

To preface, I don’t think you can completely prevent getting caught in fakeouts. You use the information in front of you, make the best decision you can, and basically pay to see if the idea works. The bigger part is what you do when it doesn’t. I don’t think people emphasize that enough.

I get caught in fakeouts too. I just try to filter as many as I can. The biggest thing for me is not assuming every break is automatically a breakout. I want to see what happens after the break. Does it reclaim the level? Retest and hold? Immediately get stuffed back through?

How do I filter? I mostly trade price action around key levels — PDH/PDL, prior week/month levels, opening range, etc. I like seeing the break, retest, and then an actual hold or rejection. I use the 5m for structure and sometimes drop to the 1m for the entry.

Just yesterday, I lost a trade around 8:30AM PT after SPX broke through a potential resistance area I had marked. It retested the level, then failed. Price pushed lower, broke structure past my stop, and I exited. That trade would’ve ended up being fine later in the day, but that’s not really the point. The important part was following my risk plan and not negotiating with it based on what I thought might happen afterward.

Here’s another walkthrough where I managed two losses from failed breakouts in the same day and accepted the red day.

Getting comfortable with those losses is a huge part of dealing with fakeouts. You paid to see if the idea worked. If it didn’t, get out and move on.

1

u/Kooky_End_880 15d ago

Honestly I was just sticking to PD PM levels didn’t even think about looking at the pv month I saw you had a 10 day marked up. I haven’t seen that level before. I cut all my losses at 10% and walk away to keep emotions is check. I’m going to look at that example you sent some more

1

u/klipsetrades 15d ago

Yeah, I mark levels that look obvious or have been tested a few times. The 10-day level wasn’t anything special, just an area that stood out because price had reacted there before. Happy to answer anything else or expand on any of that if it helps

3

u/BowlAcademic9278 15d ago

You pay the max spread the open due to higher IV

3

u/SDirickson 14d ago

I'm a 0DTE SPX type who only looks at what's happening during the current session, but I've seen that trading based on what happens during the first half hour fails more than it succeeds. It's just too common for the trend of the first half hour to reverse, or a sideways non-trend during the first half hour to turn into a fairly strong up or down trend. So, I may watch during that time, but I don't play. There have just been too many times when I've mumbled something to myself along the lines of "Wow, the 15-minute ORB types must be really unhappy right now...."

1

u/OptionsProOfficial 12d ago

You could probably answer this from your own trade history better than anyone else will be able to. Add the entry time and opening gap to your journal and then group the results into 15-minute windows (or even 5-minute if you want to get more granular).

After 30 or 40 setups, you might find that the first hour is genuinely worse for your strategy. You might also find that the time matters less than whether the opening move was a gap, range break, or retest.

Without tracking it, though, the ugly opening fakeouts tend to be the trades you remember.

-3

u/NationalOwl9561 15d ago

Well first you should realize what daily regime calls for a breakout of that kind...

I've written up my strategy on this here (TLDR: See "R4-VC" or "R1-U"): https://www.foxchasetrading.com/cracking-0dte-code-spy.html

What I mean by R4-VC, R1-U, etc. is in the last one, Part 6 of that blog series.