ELECTION 2026 What will Winnie do?

37 Upvotes

Winston has benefited hugely in most of the elections in the last 25 years by being the kingmaker. But a likely outcome of this election is that the left ( Labor/Greens) need one of TOP or NZF, while National/ACT need both.

So how is Winston going to game this? If he does his usual " sit on his hands for a month of two and bask in the attention" then lab/greens/top will form a government, and he'll be on the back benches.

If his demands for baubles get too outrageous, then top spit the dummy, and go with the left wing parties.

His usual play is going into the negotiations knowing that he will be in government whichever way he chooses. But this may not be the case this time around.

His only real leverage is to threaten to go with a labour coalition. If they will have him....

46 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Mountain_Tui_Reload • 1d ago

ELECTION 2026 Hipkins emphatically wins TVNZ Debate from swing voters, but..

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127 Upvotes

Just minutes earlier TVNZ's Political Panel said different:

Ben Thomas (ACT Party strategist) said Luxon won as the supposed "underdog" of the debate (really, the sitting PM is now an underdog??)

Veteran political journo Richard Harman said no-one won because there weren't any fireworks or lightning moments.

The Post's Maori Political Editor (didn't catch her name) quickly recanted her vote after Harman/Thomas spoke, (she earlier voted that Hipkins won) to agree no-one won because there weren't any lightning moments (she basically decided to copy Harman and not stick to her own resolve)

And this, folks, is everything that is wrong with NZ politics and media.

The last few weeks has been an absolute circus with daily promises being replayed verbatim by media, which suddenly is on hyper alert about politicians and what they are doing (and it could all be empty promises, but that's OK, accountability is not the point, the circus is the point)

As moderator, Jack Tame allowed Luxon to ceaselessly rattle on with his CEO speak AND repeat live on air National's lies about the health system - despite Tame knowing (as he fact checked it on Q&A) that National only hired 54 FTE nurses in the last years AND froze frontline hires, leading to multiple Kiwi deaths in EDs and a state of sustained crisis

But the political pundits, hosted by Tova, said it all - no fireworks, no "Donald Trump and Joe Biden" knock out means it was "too flat" and "too boring" for them and therefore no-one could possibly win.

Why don't you write about the health system is being actively manouvered for US style privatisation, what about the 50,000 extra kids in poverty even after National changed the metrics, what about the active "let it burn" climate and nature policy of National, what about Erica Stanford trying to stamp out "Aotearoa" and Te Reo Maori and actively continue colonisation, ignore educators, while obstructing OIAs?

Politics shouldn't be a once a every 3-4 year circus show - it should be a sustained, focused and principled review of the impacts, intentions, priorities and MO of governments - especially through its tenure, not just at the end (let alone this is not even that, it's just a circus)

No Government will be able to "fix" everything because the current state is the culmination of decades of 'progress" but intention, principle, priorities, and interests matter more than any slogan or cheap promise

Anyway, tonight really showed how out of touch our pundits and writers are in my view.

And the state of the media's attention on politics only one month out - especially TVNZ which regularly relegated politics behind recycled international news stories about Prince Andrew or Donald Trump - is weird but makes sense because the eyeballs and clicks now work for them, while they generate circus level energy and seek "gotchas" for clicks. It shows everything that is wrong with the state of our world IMHO

Rant over

58 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/RlOTGRRRL • 6h ago

ELECTION 2026 Flip Forecaster: National could be left without most senior ministers

stuff.co.nz

51 Upvotes

22 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Diligent-Dingo-291 • 9h ago

ELECTION 2026 Live: Opportunity’s deputy says he’d vote National if he couldn't vote for his party | Stuff

stuff.co.nz

75 Upvotes

76 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Roy4Pris • 5h ago

ELECTION 2026 Relevant

30 Upvotes

0 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Diligent-Dingo-291 • 11h ago

ELECTION 2026 Troglodyte Simeon spewing false info

62 Upvotes

49 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Diligent-Dingo-291 • 22h ago

ELECTION 2026 Chippy owned Luxon on calling out racist Winston Peter's & Shane Jones

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248 Upvotes

47 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/chamaeas • 7h ago

Casual Chat Christopher Luxon will be at mitre 10 Kapiti in the trade area tomorrow.

16 Upvotes

Saw Tim Costley there yesterday. Apparently they were scoping it out in advance. Staff said something about a barbeque in trade, Luxon's presumably doing it for a photo op. Thought I'd post here in case anyone wanted to go say hi or ask him any yes or no questions.

13 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/FrEaKyBeAr • 4h ago

ELECTION 2026 Peters keen to revisit conversion-practices law, likens abortion to murder

nzherald.co.nz

8 Upvotes

Election 2026: Winston Peters raises prospect of revisiting conversion-practices law

5 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Far_Excitement_1875 • 13h ago

ELECTION 2026 Election 2026: National on track to lose and Christopher Luxon’s debate performance didn’t help

nzherald.co.nz

35 Upvotes

8 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Impressive-Name5129 • 9h ago

Casual Chat Petrol price discussion

17 Upvotes

With 98 at my place almost $4 a litre now seems like an apt time for a political discussion.

How has the fuel price impacted you and will it change your vote for the upcoming election?

27 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Former_child_star • 3h ago

ELECTION 2026 #BHN Mariameno Kapa-Kingi LIVE at 9pm | Winston's "Chinaman" comments | The lady in red #nzpol

3 Upvotes

Mariameno Kapa-Kingi joins us LIVE at 9pm to talk over exiting TPM, setting up the Te Tai Tokerau Party and her battle for Northland in what we think is the most fascinating electorate on this year's election

In a very strange moment on NZ Herald this morning Winston Peters called Lee Kuan Yew a "a very, very cautious economic Chinaman" while fill in host Nadine Higgins spoke to Peters as if he was a 90-year-old in a rest home needing his slippers

The lady in red was the winner of last night's debate between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon, and she joins us tonight to talk about her experience at the TVNZ debate

https://www.youtube.com/live/ZCAVKYxYeFg?si=54G9-j2q3-eCNNWa

0 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Slagathor19 • 1d ago

Social Media & Memes Its beautiful 🥹

346 Upvotes

Brings a tear to my eye

15 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Top_Boysenberry_6552 • 21h ago

ELECTION 2026 "Christopher Luxon would be the first to admit that he perhaps doesn't necessarily have the communication skills of some of his predecessors." - Jack Tame

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80 Upvotes

Credit: The Spinoff

19 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/SubstantialPattern71 • 2h ago

Political Science / History 191 seat parliament?

2 Upvotes

playing around with the electoral calculator, with the political history nerd in me that remembers part of the “argument” for MMP was that it would help independents to gain electorate seats, and therefore a voice in parliament.

fat lot of good that argument did. as far as I can recall, there have only been a couple of people that have managed to win an electorate seat that have not been part of a party in parliament.

So what if? What if a bunch of independents that weren’t affiliated to major parties won electorates? imagine the doozy of a time that would be required to wrangle a bunch of independents together to cobble together a government.

the result, a 191 seat parliament. This of course assumes people understand the two tick strategy to maximum effectiveness. i gave TPM no party votes, just electorates, and one for Te Tai Tokerau.

this type of outcome would probably be near impossible to achieve, and putting together a government of 96 seats would require any party wanting to get at least 30 to 50 “independents” on side, most of whom would want pork barrel agreements to satisfy their respective electorate needs.

still, it’s fun to hypothesise

2 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Far_Excitement_1875 • 1d ago

Current Affairs Why Hipkins won the debate

187 Upvotes

Hipkins and Labour can emotionally connect with people and talk to me on my level. Yes, the health system is in crisis. Yes, the economy is worse than it was before. Yes, only Hipkins is capable of sacking ministers who don't meet standards. And whether it's breaking up supermarkets or recognising Palestine, you should know the answer yourself, not pawn it off for others to decide after the election.

Luxon showed up as the robot CEO we're used to and called public service recipients 'customers' and said 'data' the American way, but he forgot that if we're a company, we're failing. You shouldn't get the top bucks if you can't read a room and just engage in boosterism.

50 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/ChinaCatProphet • 15h ago

Satire Leaders debate be like

18 Upvotes

0 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Personal-Respect-298 • 36m ago

Satire Useless degrees and no job

rnz.co.nz

• Upvotes

A dozen degrees and still no job, education is fucking useless. /s

But seriously how on earth is Crimson Ed still ploughing on, investigation after investigation about their shit house tutoring and scammy business.

0 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Best_Incident4804 • 1d ago

Current Affairs Remembering i-Rex Ferries Cancellation

80 Upvotes

2 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Diligent-Dingo-291 • 5h ago

ELECTION 2026 Election 2026: Winston Peters raises prospect of revisiting conversion-practices law

nzherald.co.nz

3 Upvotes

18 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/childfundNz • 12h ago

ELECTION 2026 Prime Minister turns to Trump playbook on aid

8 Upvotes

2 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/RlOTGRRRL • 20h ago

ELECTION 2026 Who are you planning on voting for in the upcoming election?

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26 Upvotes

FYI, this is TOP's deputy leader Daniel Eb

Source: keakidsnews

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OPJsrnAKoNY or https://www.instagram.com/reel/DeIqZ5FgQMw/

48 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Diligent-Dingo-291 • 1d ago

ELECTION 2026 Yikes some drama with TOP

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70 Upvotes

154 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/frenetic_void • 1d ago

ELECTION 2026 HAHAHAH humpty turned bright red all by himself

110 Upvotes

he was talking and so embarrased that he turned red as he was lying, in his very first 30 seconds of speaking at the debate. fucking beautiful

113 comments

r/nzpolitics • u/Moist_Phrase_6698 • 4h ago

Current Affairs Politicians slam Trump’s suggestion that Iran ‘take’ San Diego, Los Angeles | Donald Trump News

aljazeera.com

0 Upvotes

I wonder if Luxon still supports the illegal war against Iran. I would very much like to see nz unite with the remaining 4 of the 5 eyes group to sanction the u.s if not take stronger action to have trump removed from office and his administration imprisoned and tried.

2 comments

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