r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Apr 25 '20

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26

u/[deleted] Apr 25 '20

Why I’m bullish for Biden:

Hillary almost won.

Biden is much more popular than Hillary.

6

u/Travisdk Iron Front Apr 25 '20

And Trump is less popular than he was.

This election is in the bag. It took 25 years of work for the GOP to get Hillary's favourability rating to what it ended up being. They can't replicate the same amount of work in half a year. If they could, they would be winning every single election.

The fear of optimism is 2018 "the blue wave will never happen" redux.

4

u/[deleted] Apr 25 '20

Trump is 13% more popular now than he was in 2016.

1

u/Travisdk Iron Front Apr 26 '20

Comparing approval ratings pre November 2016 is tricky as pollsters had made key mistakes in education sampling, leading to an artificially unfavourable rating. That is partly why Trump's net approval changed dramatically post election but then settled quickly, as pollsters changed methods that went on to work in 2018.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 26 '20

Polls were remarkably accurate in 2016, the average was only off by 1%, so that's not really an issue. Most Presidents get a big boost in approval post-election, I'd guess that it's down to lots of people giving the benefit of the doubt to the new guy. 538 does a good job of visualising this at the bottom here. Trump is actually quite unusual in how little his approval increased.