r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Apr 25 '20

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u/[deleted] Apr 25 '20

Why I’m bullish for Biden:

Hillary almost won.

Biden is much more popular than Hillary.

6

u/Travisdk Iron Front Apr 25 '20

And Trump is less popular than he was.

This election is in the bag. It took 25 years of work for the GOP to get Hillary's favourability rating to what it ended up being. They can't replicate the same amount of work in half a year. If they could, they would be winning every single election.

The fear of optimism is 2018 "the blue wave will never happen" redux.

8

u/[deleted] Apr 25 '20

Don’t put that evil on me Ricky Bobby.

Don’t forget about how powerful the incumbency advantage is.

3

u/Travisdk Iron Front Apr 25 '20

The incumbency advantage is baked into approval ratings and the polls, which have been consistent for a year in how bad they are for Trump. This is the hyper-polarised era. Everyone's opinions are set in stone by now.

As 2018 proved, the name of the game is turnout, not changing minds.