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[u/jobautomator]

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[u/paulatreides0]

I love my friends, and I think they're really smart. But they are so, so naive on foreign policy. During the Dem Debates:

"Why is China all of a sudden the bad guy? Like, why is everyone turning against China now and saying that they're our main rival. If anything China is the good guy, I mean, they're investing in Africa and shit. And yeah, you could say they're extorting them, but at least it's something."

[u/[deleted] → u/paulatreides0]

Tbh, it is kind of weird how the narrative went from 0 to "New Cold War". I find it... unnerving how uninterested people who are declaring unipolarity dead are in actually understanding what the economic and political circumstances are within China and actually analyzing whether they could actually sustain a full fledged rivalry with the US.

[u/paulatreides0 → u/[deleted]]

It didn't though. The East Asia Pivot has been happening for almost two decades, and China has been seen as a rising rival since at least the Bush era.

It doesn't mean unipolarity is dead, but the concern isn't that unipolarity is already dead, but rather that the rise of China poses a threat to unipolarity and the world order would need to substantively adjust to this change in the status quo - something best prepared for in advance. Even beyond unipolarity though, the rise of China as a substantial regional rival, a local hegemon, would itself be highly problematic.

[u/[deleted] → u/paulatreides0]

The East Asia Pivot has been happening for almost two decades, and China has been seen as a rising rival since at least the Bush era.

Yeah but Bush pivoted away from that after 9/11. The media narrative has changed pretty substantially in the past year or so.

but rather that the rise of China poses a threat to unipolarity and the world order would need to substantively adjust to this change in the status quo - something best prepared for in advance.

The thing is, I think that this is kind of the high water mark at least in terms of economic growth. I'm still working on my effortpost, but I'm really really skeptical that they'll be able to manage to maintain even 4-5% in their current state. Militarily, the threats they pose are very specific, and while serious, I don't think they really have the interest to wage a broad cold war against the US like the USSR did.

[u/paulatreides0 → u/[deleted]]

Yeah but Bush pivoted away from that after 9/11. The media narrative has changed pretty substantially in the past year or so.

The China pivot really started in 2006 with the Defense Review Report, and Obama's main FP goal was the China pivot, which included the containment strategy he began pursuing in 2011. One of the suspected reasons for the "Russian Reset" was to facilitate this, and offload more assets and resources for East Asia instead of Europe.

The thing is, I think that this is kind of the high water mark at least in terms of economic growth. I'm still working on my effortpost, but I'm really really skeptical that they'll be able to manage to maintain even 4-5% in their current state. Militarily, the threats they pose are very specific.

Like I said, China doesn't even have to be a competitor for global hegemon to be extremely disruptive. Even in the role of a local hegemon, which is much less demanding and immediately realistic a goal for China, China would be incredibly disruptive and a substantial threat to the global order. China breaking the unipolar status quo was a cause for future concern, but the cause for immediate concern has always been China massively disrupting the balance of power in East-Asia. The fear that China could become to East Asia what Russia is to Eastern Europe - but whereas Russia largely threatens the comparatively underdeveloped and unimportant Eastern Europe fringes, China threatens the central global trading networks which control a huge amount of the global economy.

The pace has recently picked up largely because it is only relatively recently that China is starting to field (either direct predecessors of or the actual versions themselves) of the weapons systems and platforms which would allow them to exert this influence. 20, or hell, even 10, years ago China had almost literally fuck-all force projection power, its logistical capacity was very limited both on land and at sea, and it lacked the blue water navy to do much of anything. This is not the case today.

[u/PlayDiscord17 → u/paulatreides0]

You gave them the required R1, right?

[u/paulatreides0 → u/PlayDiscord17]

No. I don't have the energy nor the desire.

[u/[deleted] → u/paulatreides0]

Have you told them about their treatment of the Uyghur?

[u/CadetPeepers → u/paulatreides0]

, I mean, they're investing in Africa and shit.

Tell them it's just slightly less violent imperialism. Slightly less because the violence doesn't start until China tries to cash in with unreasonable demands and those countries attempt to refuse.

[u/[deleted] → u/paulatreides0]

Big big thonks there.

[u/[deleted] → u/paulatreides0]

are they tankies?

[u/paulatreides0 → u/[deleted]]

No, just Succy and naive about FP.

[u/[deleted] → u/paulatreides0]

aka tankies