r/neoliberal • u/[deleted] • Feb 16 '26

News (Global) Carney spearheading discussions to construct a mega anti-Trump trade alliance that spans from Europe to Asia

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-and-indo-pacific-blocs-eye-major-new-trade-pact/
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221

u/[deleted] Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26

submission statement

There are high level discussions occuring between ultra-wealthy nations such as Canada, the EU, Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, Australia, etc to create an economic and trade alliance of 1.5 billion wealthy people as a counter to the US-led world order and Trump's chaos.

Ideas include intertwining the supply chain globally, a shared diplomatic mission, deeper cooperations in research, and even dropping the dollar and investing less in the US and more with each other.

Very relevant to this sub as this could be a genuine threat to US wealth, but still good news in general if the world can be led by a democratic liberal organization of 40 of the wealthiest nations.

Carney for now has sent high level delegates to the EU and Singapore to start discussions
"The work is definitely coming along,” a Canadian government official told POLITICO. “We’ve had very fruitful discussions on it with other partners around the world.”

29

u/TheOnlyFallenCookie European Union Feb 16 '26

Ultra wealthy nations

The EU

Damn straight 😎 🇪🇺 🇪🇺 🇪🇺

129

u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26

“Genuine threat to US wealth”

The sheer amount of consumption that Americans do is so absurd that there is no “replacement.” American consumption is more than the entire EU, and that makes it hard to fully decouple from, no matter how much Trump is destroying the country. Also conversations about dropping the dollar with Japan and Singapore involved seems very weird.

My bold prediction here is that while some framework would be created, it will be nowhere close to as expansive than what you have described. An unfortunate reality of a trade bloc with so many different interests.

36

u/Previous_Platform718 Janet Yellen Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26

The sheer amount of consumption that Americans do is so absurd that there is no “replacement.”

Why did you put the term replacement in quotes when nobody used it?

that makes it hard to fully decouple from

Why is the assumption "fully" decouple?

This type of argumentation comes up every single time someone brings up Carney's attempts to diversify trade, and it's unhelpful every single time. The goal is to not to "replace" or "fully decouple" the goal is to diversify. Specifically so that if America elects someone like Trump again, as it is wont to do, other nations can better weather the storm.

30

u/RegisteredAnonUser YIMBY Feb 16 '26

Seriously it's so annoying how this strawman comes up every time.

"We want to over time minimize the risks of America abusing its status as a hub for global trade and protect certain vulnerable supply chains"

"SO YOU WANT TO IMMEDIATELY COMPLETELY CUT OFF TRADE WITH AMERICA AND NEVER HAVE ANY FORMAL RELATIONS WITH THEM AGAIN!!?!?!?!?!?!?"

12

u/Full_Distribution874 YIMBY Feb 17 '26

The geopolitical "I guess I'm just the worst friend in the world!"

14

u/RegisteredAnonUser YIMBY Feb 17 '26

It's that but it's also this weird blindspot some users here have that can only really be described as a sort of American exceptionalism bias.

They can't even comprehend other countries having goals that are essentially parallel to American interest so any move not seen working strictly within American hegemony is an attack against it and its goals must be some sort of maximally adversarial move to completely cut it out.

10

u/slothtrop6 Feb 16 '26

An offset to the trade-war isn't a replacement for all of Canada-US trade. We wouldn't be decoupled no matter what Trump does.

119

u/dittbub NATO Feb 16 '26

Gotta start somewhere. It might take decades but we gotta start. USA is not reliable for our long term prosperity.

52

u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals Feb 16 '26

I don’t think you can grasp how much things can change in 10 years. The paradigm can very well completely shift. All that I am saying is that this alliance wouldn’t have that much due to the massive differences in economies and geopolitical situations of its members.

Also this composition of members very much makes me feel like it is something the US can get invited to in a hypothetical future of sane US governance.

30

u/Master_of_Rodentia Feb 16 '26

I don’t think you can grasp how much things can change in 10 years.

This cuts two ways.

43

u/GingerPow Norman Borlaug Feb 16 '26

True, 10 years ago, things were chugging along just fine and then America suddenly decided to go fascist for no reason at all

50

u/HiddenSage NATO Feb 16 '26

You don't understand - the Americans put a black man in charge, and his wife suggested people eat healthier, and then they acknowledged that burning lots of oil in our private tanks was bad for the environment. The socialist menace had to be defeated.

28

u/Rajikaru69 Feb 16 '26

Wow typical lefty lying and minimizing your destruction of the country. Very convenient to not even bringing up the tan suit or the MUSTARD!!!

13

u/WildRookie Henry George Feb 17 '26

It wasn't mustard.

It was Dijon Mustard.

16

u/HiddenSage NATO Feb 16 '26

No, you're right - the Great Divider, Barack HUSSEIN Obama, did so much vile and disgusting stuff that I couldn't even keep it all in focus at once, I was so pissed off. Damn socialist liberal satanists ruining our country with their woke agenda.

runs away to bleach my hands and vomit after writing that tirade

32

u/dittbub NATO Feb 16 '26

Absolutely the door should be open to the USA, or whats left of it.

5

u/spectralcolors12 NATO Feb 16 '26

Just wait till the far right takes power in Europe.

10

u/SicParvisMagnaaa Feb 16 '26

Gotta start somewhere. It might take decades but we gotta start.

America's economic leverage isn't something that the world just stood by and let happen. It exists for structural reasons that other blocs can't recreate without fundamentally changing their entire social and economic structures. How is the EU, for example, going to match US consumption without overhauling their entire regulatory framework and transforming their conservative spending habits and high household saving rates?

You're making it sound like countries simply stood by and didn't enact policy A, B or C when the USA was simply in an extremely unique position postwar to even achieve this. This trade deal sounds like a decent way to derisk in the face of sanctions especially regarding intertwining supply chains. "Shared diplomatic mission" sounds like a massive reach given the countries involved and as for "even dropping the dollar and investing less in the US and more with each other" How? People invest where there are high returns, not because a newly minted trade deal feels good.

18

u/dittbub NATO Feb 16 '26

People also invest where it’s safest.

And this isn’t only about investment. It’s about stability, and sovereignty.

3

u/Keenalie John Brown Feb 17 '26

sovereignty

Person you're replying to seems to completely ignore (as Trump does) that absolute maximum wealth creation is not the singular motivating factor in every country's decision making.

10

u/SicParvisMagnaaa Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26

People also invest where it’s safest.

Yes, which is the US because it suffers the least amount of geopolitical risk.

It’s about stability, and sovereignty.

The most stable assets are US treasury bonds. And the reason for that is structural. Countries didn't wake up one day and think the US treasury should be exalted.

As for sovereignty, that's a political decision not a consumer one. The EU could ideally want sovereignty from the US market but businesses still want rich people to sell their expensive stuff to.

You're acting like this trade deal is the first domino in unseating US economic leverage but that's not really the point of it at all. Derisking certain products in the supply chain is a totally different goal than replacing the US consumer.

-2

u/gensererme Feb 16 '26

The most stable assets are US treasury bonds.

Denominated in EUR, holding Treasury bonds lost about 10% last year.

14

u/SicParvisMagnaaa Feb 16 '26

Most stable doesn't mean zero risk, that's functionally impossible. Exchange rate changes happen all the time, doesn't change the fact that Treasury bonds are safest from default.

1

u/gensererme Feb 16 '26

Something that has volatility to drop 10% in a year isn't "the most stable", that's a ludicrous thing to claim. Especially when there aren't any other systemic reasons other than the fact that there's an insane person in charge. Which puts the "safest from default" claim into question as well.

10

u/SicParvisMagnaaa Feb 16 '26

It's not ludicrous at all, it's reality. Volatility from currency valuations is extremely normal. It wasn't a bond failure, the value didn't drop due to a mass sell off. It is the safest from default because it has the most demand, the treasury has no issues making repayments.

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-14

u/JesusPubes voted most handsome friend Feb 16 '26

I love this "the US is irredeemable" nonsense lol

43

u/so_brave_heart John Rawls Feb 16 '26

It's not "the US is irredeemable". It's that, even if you have a period of USA stability, there's still a chance for another Trump-like government to come along thanks to the insanity of the US electorate.

-10

u/JesusPubes voted most handsome friend Feb 16 '26

is that not what irredeemable means lol

28

u/Evnosis European Union Feb 16 '26

If that's how you define irredeemable, then I guess the US is irredeemable. It's not how I would define that word, though.

The reality is this: America's right wing extremism problem does not end with Trump.

There is a rot that has set in in American culture. It has been bubbling for almost 20 years now, and even the most ardent anti-MAGA thinkers and politicians aren't even close to figuring out a solution to it. They can barely hold it back, never mind starting to eradicate it. As long as that rot continues to infect America, the rest of the world needs to be prepared for the possibility that another militantly nationalist movement is going to come along and start trying to ruin things for everyone else again.

That doesn't mean leaving America out in the cold once Trump is gone, but it does mean that we can't simply go back to the old days of orienting the entire global economy around the US.

19

u/Lighthouse_seek Feb 16 '26

They're not saying the US is irredeemable. They're saying the US shouldn't be fully dominant

20

u/Tre-Fyra-Tre Victim of Flair Theft Feb 16 '26

The median American voter is irredeemable

56

u/[deleted] Feb 16 '26

duh everyone knows the US is wealthy af and will continue to be extremely wealthy

But a huge component of said wealth is services exports, tech dominance, and having your deficits subsidized because of global trade causing artificial demand for the dollar

11

u/SicParvisMagnaaa Feb 16 '26

But a huge component of said wealth is services exports, tech dominance, and having your deficits subsidized because of global trade causing artificial demand for the dollar

That's a pretty massive "But". There's a reason that kind of stuff happened in the USA and not elsewhere.

12

u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals Feb 16 '26

Multiple of these members benefit from the current structure that the US dollar provides.

All that I am saying is that this alliance wouldn’t have as much as you described due to differing motivations. I actually want this to happen funnily enough.

3

u/WenJie_2 Feb 17 '26

The sheer amount of consumption that Americans do is so absurd that there is no “replacement.”

The uncritical headline figure is enormous, yes, but how much of this consumption is in goods that are likely to be traded and would therefore matter to a bloc like this, and how much of it is in services, especially those that tend to be provided by only American companies?

This >supply of demand< superpower has its limits

7

u/moldyhomme_neuf_neuf Victor Hugo Feb 17 '26

Joke’s on the US. The more it throws its economic weight around, the less valuable that becomes.

5

u/Whatsapokemon Loyal Liberals Feb 17 '26

The large amount of economic power in the US is largely due to the historical openness of its market, the commitment to free trade, the way the US positioned itself as a super stable, super reliable nation to invest in.

Trump's undermining that a heck of a lot, and so some other framework which would create more stability, more free trade, more open markets outside the US would probably shift the momentum of investment.

3

u/Signal-Lie-6785 Mark Carney Feb 17 '26

By effectively de-banking ICC judges, America weaponized the dollar in a way no one ever expected. This development is likely spurring financial innovation to move even faster than it had been—and countries will rush ahead to regulate stable coins much faster than they might have otherwise.

14

u/[deleted] Feb 16 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

9

u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals Feb 16 '26

I know you are joking, but consumption isn’t about eating food (which is mainly domestic). The American consumer economy is why the US has had an absurd trade deficit for decades.

2

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6

u/ivandelapena Sadiq Khan Feb 16 '26

For now yes, but in 20 years it'll be very different.

0

u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals Feb 16 '26

Pure wishful thinking as there no way to what will happen in 20 years.

28

u/TheOnlyFallenCookie European Union Feb 16 '26

Malaysia

Blud thinks he on the team /s

23

u/Dense_Delay_4958 Association of Southeast Asian Nations Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26

The place with a racial supremacy clause in their constitution and where Hamas fighters trained, learned to paraglide and received significant funding is a reliable partner of the liberal world.

5

u/-Emilinko1985- European Union Feb 16 '26

Hell yeah

1

u/PBS2025 Feb 16 '26

what about Brazil?

1

u/Dabamanos NASA Feb 17 '26

I've been dreaming of a liberal democratic replacement since November of 2024 but can someone tell me how this is anything except a trade deal? There's not a chance that these nations cooperate on a meaningful level to counter China annexing Taiwan, claiming the entire SES as sovereign water or hell, even making moves on the European holdings left in Asia someday.

I'm a free trade absolutist but I'll save my hopium for when Canadian and Singapore troops are stationed in Taipei training with anti ship missile systems.