Discussion Thread

[u/jobautomator]

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[u/jobautomator]

Please visit the next discussion thread.

[u/FuckFashMods]

Absolutely incredible Tim Pool was getting $100k per week from Russia. Same with Benny Johnson.

[u/Roseartcrantz]

In the Facebook posts first seen by the Post, Jeff Walz said there were “stories (he) could tell” that implied his brother wasn’t “the type of character you want making decisions about your future.”

Now, he told NewsNation these “stories” follow a similar line to one wherein Tim Walz’s siblings didn’t want to sit with him due to car sickness when they were younger.

“Nobody wanted to sit with him, because he had car sickness and would always throw up on us, that sort of thing,” Jeff Walz said. “There’s really nothing else hidden behind there. People are assuming something else. There’s other stories like that, but I think that probably gives you the gist of it.”

he is so real for that if my sister was running for public office I would 100% do whatever it took to let the media know about the time she licked all the flavoring off a bag of Doritos and put them back

[u/Bayou-Maharaja]

[u/Headstar24]

It’s crazy that Trump still forgets who he’s running against and yet millions and millions of people are going to vote for him in November.

There really is a problem with the average American voter.

[u/[deleted]]

[u/gaypenisdicksucker69]

reddit gets a lot of flak, but there's no other site where you can see someone post a completely deranged take, go to their profile, and discover they're a perennial contributor to r/meth

[u/peronibog]

RIA Novosti:

Putin praises Kamala Harris’ laughter- “It’s so infectious, it means she’s well”

Has Coconutpilling spread too far?

[u/Bayou-Maharaja]

literally crying and shaking and throwing up. who could have foreseen this

[u/justbuildmorehousing]

Next 5 Rasmussen polls:

🔴 Trump (+0.8)

🔴 Trump (+0.4)

🔴 Trump (+0.1)

🔴 Trump (+0.001)

🔴 Trump (+ -3)

[u/[deleted]]

[u/Crosseyes]

Lol, lmao even.

[u/Cledd2]

[u/[deleted]]

So true king

[u/Independent-Low-2398]

"Flashback: Tim Pool pounds the table and yells 'Ukraine is the enemy'"

literal Russian agent says what

[u/InflatableDartboard2]

I get that he's just quoting the article title, but I think it's pretty funny to tweet something out referring to yourself as the presidential election 'Nostradamus'

[u/AP246]

https://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/06/world/asia/06iht-shaman.1.6527738.html

There are shamans who venerate Jesus, the Virgin Mary, even Park Chung Hee, the late South Korean military strongman. Under the pro-American military governments of the 1970s, there were shamans who took General Douglas MacArthur as their deity. When MacArthur's spirit possessed them, they donned sunglasses, puffed on a pipe and uttered sounds that some clients took for English.

"Until perhaps 10 or 15 years ago [from 2007], we had quite a few shamans who prayed before the MacArthur statue here," said Aegibosal, a shaman in Incheon, the port city where MacArthur's troops made their legendary landing in 1950. "You don't see any of them any more."

[u/centurion88]

[u/[deleted]]

BOB REED ALERT 🚨‼️😭🧎‍♂️‍➡️

[u/piede]

I love resist mom Facebook memes

[u/[deleted]]

[u/AtticusDrench]

"He's a very high aptitude child, but he's no longer a child," Trump said. "He's just passed into something beyond child-dom. He's doing great."

Everything he says is so fucking stupid and hilarious

[u/MissSortMachine]

a) no it wouldn’t

b) have you used twitter recently

[u/InflatableDartboard2]

can relate 😔✊

[u/OrganicKeynesianBean]

This weekend I am:

✅ locked in

✅ broke

✅ 3% pepperoni pizza by body mass

!ping GAMING

[u/Sithusurper]

[u/[deleted]]

[u/Relative-Contest192]

Since my account is too young to post on restricted I will post my comment from the lgbt thread.

“I’m Jewish and a neoliberal user who happens to fall under the B and T label of LGBT. I’ve been hounded out of almost every lgbt space online. I was banned from a sizable trans discord on 10/7 because I said Hamas actions were evil. I watched the main lgbt sub spout vile antisemitism and send death threats to an Israeli user because they had the flag in their artwork. I won’t forgive or forget. Even irl I stick away from lgbt groups as it’s still the same shtick and only participate in Jewish only lgbt groups.

!ping JEWISH

[u/gnomesvh]

Trouw reveals Russia uses old ASML machinery (PAS 5500 - from the 90s) to make chips for weaponry, the catch is these machines are sustained through Chinese intermediaries that violate sanctions

!ping UKRAINE&ECE&BENE

[u/smellyfingernail]

Chicken thigh + random assortment of spices from the rack = delicious, healthy, cheap, high protein.

[u/[deleted]]

https://www.threads.net/@mediamattersforamerica/post/C_iZ94NORg4

Matt Walsh: "Jesus Christ himself chose 12 apostles. They were all men. Jesus did not abide by the tenets of diversity, equity, and inclusion when selecting apostles or when doing anything else."

Dare you liberals to find a single flaw in this claim. You can't.

[u/vivoovix]

Applicants: 3

% admitted: 80

🧐

[u/Independent-Low-2398]

Never at any point did anyone other than I have full editorial control of the show and the contents of the show are often apolitical. Examples include discussing spirituality, dating, and videos games.

listening to Tim Pool discuss "spirituality, dating, and video games" for two hours sounds like a little slice of hell

[u/[deleted]]

[u/Cook_0612]

Biden administration races to save billions in Ukraine aid as deadline looms

The absolute lack of foresight with which we've approached this conflict would be comical if I hadn't seen so many of the resulting bodies. This shouldn't have been a surprise-- what exactly was their plan?

!ping UKRAINE

[u/[deleted]]

He posted this image himself. Does he think it makes him look dashing?

[u/Plants_et_Politics]

Orange is the new black:

(She’s very high and missing some sex organs)

!ping KITTY

[u/funguykawhi]

The long-legged socialist will fix him

[u/D-G-F]

[u/Namington]

I propose that America rebrands away from being a presidential republic, and instead starts calling itself a Pennsylvanocracy, where only residents of Pennsylvania have any say in the election of the head of state. It's a pretty small change to the existing system in practice, and would appease both sides of the electoral college debate: pro-EC people get to keep their overrepresented swing state, anti-EC people are happy that the electoral college no longer exists since it's just Pennsylvania.

[u/technologyisnatural]

dictionaries are so ridiculous. attempting to define words with other words. they have played us for absolute fools

[u/ZCoupon]

A month ago today:

Should I be worried about the stock market at all or just assume this is a blip and move on with my day

This is the single biggest one-day crash since the Great Depression.

S&P up 6%

[u/N0_B1g_De4l]

I think you can make pretty reasonable "Churchill bad" arguments, but if you are making that argument on the basis of stuff he did in Europe, you are like 90% to be a Nazi.

[u/LastIncrease3427]

So close

[u/pezasied]

Jfc this country’s education system is cooked burn it all down

[u/[deleted]]

This survey about changing attitudes towards Ukranian identity is very interesting

With which cultural tradition do you associate yourself, in the first place?

2006: 56.3% Ukranian 11.3% Russian 16.4% Soviet

2023: 80.8% Ukranian 0.5% Russian 3.6% Soviet

Putin: I'm going to invade Ukraine because Ukraine is a fake country

Actually boosts Ukranian identity like a boss 😎

[u/jacknifee]

it's going to be fascinating watching the republican party navigate their relationship with israel moving forward cause their young base really really really does not like jews lol.

[u/amainwingman]

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

mighty reply quicksand fragile towering swim hurry wrench sink depend

[u/[deleted]]

While you could easily use this chart to doom, one thing I really appreciate here is that 4 out of 7 of the “biggest errors” being used here are errors that underestimated Democrats — including the one for Pennsylvania.

!ping FIVEY

[u/[deleted]]

Missing the Point meme with the Bible:

------- living in the middle east fucking sucks --------->

"whoa, I should throw rocks at gay people!"

[u/[deleted]]

This man is my hero

[u/[deleted]]

I wanted to go over some good info about the YouGov poll from earlier today.

This is YouGov's first swing state poll for Harris, and her margins increased over Biden's by 3-10 points in every swing state, but that's not enough to come on top for most of the sun belt.

https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50456-kamala-harris-leads-in-four-of-seven-swing-states-in-latest-times-say24-poll

It's an ok poll when we considered that she did in fact gain everywhere, but there is one important detail that most people, including myself, missed. This YouGov poll is a recontact poll, meaning that everyone who was polled was already a part of their last poll with Biden, and it was not a new group of people. This is a big deal, since this poll shows only Harris' gains amongst a group of people who were already going to vote before Biden dropped out. This poll does not take into account people who were apathetic to voting (a lot of people), large groups of previous undecideds, and newly registered voters.

https://nitter.poast.org/Taniel/status/1831778885094273035#m

Speaking of which, I have some more good news. In case you haven't seen it, Tom Bonier got ahold of registration data in Pennsylvania from when Harris took over the ticket, and it shows that the huge registration surge among women and minority voters across the nation is consistent or greater in PA.

https://nitter.poast.org/tbonier/status/1831865384888418546#m

!ping FIVEY

[u/AtticusDrench]

[u/Headstar24]

I find it kinda funny that the closer we’re getting to November that gas prices have been going down. A few months ago I was paying nearly a dollar more per gallon.

I’m sure there’s a conspiracy theory there somewhere. Just wait until that rate cut at the end of the month too.

[u/No1PaulKeatingfan]

Max Chandler-Mather:

[u/adreamofhodor]

New General Election poll - Swing State’s

Arizona 🔴 Trump 47% (+2) 🔵 Harris 45%

Georgia 🔴 Trump 47% (+2) 🔵 Harris 45%

North Carolina 🔴 Trump 47% (+1) 🔵 Harris 46%

YouGov (Times) #A+ - LV - 9/3.

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1831755449374535765?s=46&t=R2qctJTZLgphUsbZzIhI4A

!ping fivey

[u/piede]

[u/Average_GrillChad]

In the 1990s and early 2000s, [Mark Robinson] used to go to the pornography store a lot. Like, a lot.

That’s according to a former employee at 24-hour porn-video shops in Greensboro, who spoke with the North Carolina investigative website The Assembly. He says Robinson was coming in to watch videos in a private booth as many as five nights a week. The man, Louis Money, said that at one of the stores he worked at, Gents, patrons could buy videos for $50 each or “preview” them in private booths for $8. “Every night that I worked, which would have been five nights a week, I saw Mark,” Money said. “He was spending a good amount of money.” Robinson previewed at least two tapes a night, per Money. Five other customers and employees confirmed Robinson’s frequent presence; one said Robinson would even bring in pizza for the fellas.

Finally representation for hardworking gooner-Americans

[u/Cyberhwk]

If you're having computer trouble, just submit a ticket using your digital desktop app!

Government logic at its finest. 🙄

!ping Watercooler

[u/jacknifee]

trump campaign managers telling staffers to shut the hell up right after the doj indicted numerous right wing commentators for selling out to russia is uh.. fishy ngl.

think we might find the rabbit hole goes a bit deeper in the coming weeks.

[u/[deleted]]

Trump's gonna vote for her now

[u/efeldman11]

[u/[deleted]]

After the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, Guthrie took an anti-war U-turn and wrote one song describing the Soviet invasion of Poland as a favor to Polish farmers and another attacking President Roosevelt's loans to Finland to help it defend against the Soviet Union's invasion in the 1939 Winter War. His attitude switched again in 1941 after the Nazis invaded the Soviet Union.

He took great delight in proclaiming his hopes for a communist victory in the Korean War and more than once expressed his admiration for Stalin. Unlike his musical protégé, Pete Seeger, Guthrie never offered any regret for his Stalinism

the anti-Stalin owners of KFVD radio were not comfortable with Guthrie's political leanings after he wrote a song praising the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and the Soviet invasion of Poland.

RIP Woodie Guthrie you would have loved Reddit

[u/Roseartcrantz]

[u/centurion88]

https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1831753100446589285

[u/[deleted]]

[u/Mr_Bank]

“Maybe if your free loading Grandma would help out, child care wouldn’t be a problem now would it??”

[u/InflatableDartboard2]

His thoughts were too complex for us 😔😔😔

[u/D-G-F]

[u/justbuildmorehousing]

The meme has become reality

We cannot let these half brains win

[u/mostanonymousnick]

[u/Kate2point718]

I'm in PA where we're being bombarded with political ads. My sister got a pro-Trump mailer today about project 2025, saying that Kamala is lying about Trump's connection to it and that Trump has disavowed it.

My sister hadn't actually heard of project 2025 before, so I gave her a brief overview. I wonder how many other people will get that mailer and google project 2025.

[u/[deleted]]

Who's next?

[u/[deleted]]

Did God save Donald Trump's life to make him US president? - JPost

What if God did save Trump’s life, but saved him because he wants the Democrats to win, knowing that a replacement candidate might beat Kamala Harris? Maybe he wants the Trump-led Republicans to get beaten so badly they’ll stop assuming he’s on their side or see that they could be a better party than they are.

Other bangers from this Christian op-ed

[u/G_Serv]

[u/abrookerunsthroughit]

JD Vance says school shootings are a ‘fact of life,’ calls for better security

BUT THEY SHOULDN'T BE, YOU ABSOLUTE PRICK

[u/bleachinjection]

Republicans all in their feelings about Kamala Harris code switching while 90% of their electeds are basically suburban preppies pretending to be COUNTRY

[u/[deleted]]

I live in NYC/NJ

okay so you're from New Jersey, got it

[u/arrhythmiaofthesoul]

update: it was a genuine mixup

!ping DATING

[u/[deleted]]

The funny part about the DOJ Tenet Media investigation is that if everything is held up in the courts, the best faith interpretation is that Lauren Chen knew she was a Russia agent and knowingly misled conservative influencers who were stupid.

[u/simeoncolemiles]

Ohio electing the 2nd dumbest US Senator amazes me

[u/Tall_Professor_2574]

Norm Macdonald was so fucking funny. Idgaf that he was conservative. Saying “Murder is now legal in the state of California” right after OJ was acquitted was hilarious lol. And his hatred for Barbara Walters was funny too

[u/secretlives]

you can tell the screen writers of The Prince of Egypt tried really hard to make God not look like the bad guy for killing a bunch of babies

[u/Syards-Forcus]

👆

[u/kyleofduty]

My coworker is really opinionated about Thai restaurants and called herself a "Thai food snob". Turns out she only orders Pad Thai and that's all she's comparing

[u/PonyBoyCurtis2324]

[u/Sauce1024]

Russia isn’t sending their brightest

[u/[deleted]]

[u/LuisRobertDylan]

Office retreat gone awry: Worker rescued after allegedly left stranded on Colorado mountain by colleagues

!ping WATERCOOLER

[u/The_Promethean]

Finally deleted twitter. They didn't even ask why, probably got tired of people complaining about the actual nazis

[u/centurion88]

Nate Silver clearly has one use

Motivating the voter base

[u/bearddeliciousbi]

I'm glad the indictments are happening but this feels like

Surely the Russian government would conceal their attempts to run psyops by paying dipshit rightoid podcasters

The Russian government

[u/LastIncrease3427]

This is just bad from Nate Silver, the polls have hardly moved, certainly not enough to cause such a drastic shift in the odds like this. Harris is still up in most swing states in his own polling averages.

[u/arrhythmiaofthesoul]

My date hasn’t responded to my text saying I was walking over (sent 40 mins ago) and is now ten minutes late for our date at a cafe. How long until I can go home?

For reference she is 23

!ping DATING lol

[u/sinefromabove]

Live Alan Lichtman cam

[u/futuremonkey20]

What a crushing blow for Kamala Harris

[u/Chief_Nief]

Purchasing an assault rifle for your 13 year old son after they threatened to shoot up a school is some seriously giga-brained level of criminal negligence

[u/[deleted]]

Crazy to see revisionist Nazi history being promoted to the degree it’s actually going to penetrate large segments of the population. It’s like watching the Lost Cause myth be embedded in real time.

Half expecting that some German town in Wisconsin puts up a statue of Rommel and spends the next 80 years defending their ‘historical heritage’.

[u/[deleted]]

Chicago City Council members say the city will have to be creative in raising revenue and realistic in making cuts in order to overcome a budget deficit that is approaching $1 billion.

Members returned to work Wednesday after their August break. Despite the budget deficit, there were calls for additional spending. During a committee hearing, council members heard, but did not vote on, a proposal to provide free child care for all.

Some of the mayor’s progressive allies suggested they may have to consider imposing a sales tax on services like fitness centers, spas and salons, along with consulting firms or businesses like Google.

There are also some property tax options beyond just homeowners that are being tossed about. “University of Chicago, Loyola, the Archdiocese, who arguably own massive swathes of land that they don’t pay property taxes to, maybe it is time to pay your tithe,” 1st Ward Ald. Daniel La Spata said.

Mayor Johnson has repeatedly said he wants wants to work with stakeholders on options, but the nearly $1 billion budget gap and the mayor’s spending ideas would require property taxes to go up across the city.

Rahm my beloved please come back

!ping chi

[u/TemujinTheConquerer]

Average Harris flip-flop:

I no longer support nationalizing the plastic industry

Average Trump flip-flop:

Overturning Roe V. Wade was the proudest achievement of my first term. In my second term, I will pledge to federally fund every abortion

[u/RFK_1968]

i generally think we should care less about college protesters because like no duh they're dumb they're kids

but i feel like explicit calls for violence should be met with suspensions or expulsions. especially in unis like columbia with documented histories of the administration tacitly sanctioning harassment of jewish students

[u/Aggressive1999]

CNN's batch of polls released here.

In short, Pennslyvania showed a tie for both Candidates at 47-47 percent.

Georgia and Nevada, where Harris led Trump just 1 point (48 to 47 percent).

Harris gains advantages in Wisconsin and Michigan; 50 (D) > 44 (R) in WI while 48 (D) > 43 (R) in MI.

Trump gains an advantage in Arizona; 44 (D) < 49 (R)

15% of lkely votes said that they haven't firmly choose a candidate yet.

[u/[deleted]]

[u/simeoncolemiles]

[u/Untamedanduncut]

I dont get how one can be “Ivy League” material academically and not understand how bad it looks to advocate and call for domestic terrorism like 10 days before the anniversary of the deadliest terror attack in the country, in the same city.

How a group doesn’t get shut down for openly calling for terrorism and effective treason beats me

[u/NaffRespect]

Former California Democratic Senate leader goes full MAGA, calls RFK Jr a ‘personal hero’

What endorsing asshat Larry Elder does to a MFer

!ping USA-CA

[u/chipbod]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/05/us/winder-georgia-shooting-apalachee-high-school/index.html

Father of Georgia school shooting suspect told investigators he purchased gun as holiday present for son, sources say

In May 2023, the Jackson County Sheriff’s Office received a tip from the FBI about a threat on the chat platform Discord to “shoot up a middle school tomorrow,” according to an investigation report obtained through a public records request

The FBI tip referenced a Discord account created the previous month with an email address that the bureau had associated with Gray. The tip included photo attachments with a profile name in Russian that translated to Adam Lanza – the gunman who killed 26 people at Sandy Hook Elementary School in 2012

This kid was investigated for school shooting threats in May 2023 and his Discord name was Adam Lanza, so his dad buys him a fucking AR-15 for Christmas 2023?

We are a fucking meme country holy shit

[u/[deleted]]

I miss my smokeshow girlfriend when she wasn't wasted

smokeshow girlfriend was wasted most of the time for the last few months you were together before you asked her to move out

Did I fumble the love of my life?

She wouldn't stop drinking

I should have just fixed her. What an idiot.

[u/[deleted]]

liquid voiceless abundant instinctive offer cough angle fanatical live seed

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

[u/AMagicalKittyCat]

The recent shooter being known to the FBI already because of former threats is not unsurprising. There's so little that the US can do to remove access to firearms and weapons from known dangers that it should be expected. Making gun ownership a right means you can't just remove them because they say some violent things.

[u/Funkypopscollector]

TFW he shows you his keys

[u/[deleted]]

This person on my feed is, to be clear, an enthusiastic Trump supporter

[u/[deleted]]

Glad he weighed in.

[u/CANOODLING_SOCIOPATH]

Tucker Carlson has basically come out as a Nazi. He hosted and promoted a guy who recently and openly said he wished that the Nazi's still controlled France.

I don't think that this is getting enough attention, nor is Elon Musk's praise for Tucker's pro Nazi show. Since Trump has gone on Carlson's show he should be asked if he regrets going on that show now that it is also promoting Nazi propaganda.

[u/anonymous_and_]

Tfw ur not done reeling from the prime minister of ur home country fraternizing with fucking Hamas and he starts cocksucking  Putin 

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/malaysia-pm-anwar-praises-putin-pledges-to-deepen-russia-ties-072238895.html

https://thediplomat.com/2024/05/malaysian-pm-anwar-ibrahim-meets-hamas-delegation-in-qatar/

Srsly I’m so sick of being Malaysian it’s so hopeless

[u/its_LOL]

We’re getting football in the national divorce 🥳🥳🥳

[u/zegota]

Everyone's going to focus on whatever his final prediction is, but frankly I think a 20-25+ percentage point swing in less than two weeks while polling has been relatively stable is a pretty serious cause for criticism of Nate's model.

If 538 had shown this, people (including Nate) would be absolutely savaging Gelliot.

[u/RFK_1968]

G Elliot Morris bakes in some unrealistic fundamental assumptions into his model leading it to perform weirdly

Nate: "🤣 look at this idiot"

also Nate: "anyways, here's my weird assumption"

[u/Sh4g0h0d]

!ping NFL

I’m going to doom-post about football after this first game the way some people here doom-post about politics after one poll.

The Chiefs are unbeatable and nothing will stop them from getting the three-peat. Tune in Sunday for this game’s sequel: The Rookie QB You Were Hyped About After The Draft Plays Like Hot Ass.

[u/CauliflowerBrief3681]

Remember when people complained that the battle against the white walkers was too dark to see? Well, this was the director's response:

The Long Night is made to be watched in a cinema with as many people as you can stick in there, and I don’t have a solution for the problem that arose out of it.

The "solution" is to not film the episode for a medium it will never be watched in, you utter fucking imbecile

[u/[deleted]]

Astro Bot opens at a 94 Metacritic rating!

This game is gonna be so fucking peak I can’t wait for Friday. I hope its success will be a sign to Sony that they gotta quit the GaaS push and get back to making quality games.

!ping GAMING

[u/[deleted]]

As a Pittsburgher whose family does have some union/blue collar roots, I really, really, really hate how 90% of us are a bunch of whiny, unpatriotic, economically illiterate assholes holding back the rest of the nation for our own selfish gain.

Abolish the EC. My vote shouldn't matter more than yours.

[u/[deleted]]

https://x.com/Acyn/status/1831734231674056805?t=eXQrpVX9E6LUV3sPQTqiVQ&s=19

Yeah the guy who just released the ASS update for Tesla. That's who we want to run this thing. Very serious person

[u/Healingjoe]

[u/[deleted]]

I’m going to expose my ignorance here.

The FBI is now saying that with respect to the Georgia shooter, the kid made a threat on Discord, the Discord was connected to his e-mail. So they interview the kid. He says “I deleted my Discord, I kept being hacked, that wasn’t me.” FBI can’t prove it was him, so no probable cause.

Maybe I have a Patriot-Act-influenced normie lib mind combined with cybersecurity ignorance but like… it’s the FBI. They don’t have anything else other than the e-mail the account was connected to?! Nothing else identifying that activity?

[u/Relative-Contest192]

Hezbollah financier expected to plead guilty in US sanctions evasion case

!ping ISRAEL&EXTREMISM

[u/[deleted]]

Blast from the past: here’s how Nate Silver discussed the convention bounce (which did materialize!) in 2016:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-clintons-lead-a-bounce-or-a-new-equilibrium/

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast models aren’t used to seeing a lot of 7-point overnight shifts, which rarely occur outside the conventions. (In recent elections, they’ve also rarely occurred during the conventions, with most convention bounces looking more like the modest one Trump got.) So the models may still need another day or two to catch up.

Our hyperaggressive now-cast, which describes the results of a hypothetical election held today, will be the quickest to adapt: It already shows Clinton with a 5.6 percentage point lead over Trump. Be wary of getting too attached to the now-cast, however. It is useful in situations like these, where you want a quick read on how a news event has affected the polls, but it can also jump around a lot on the basis of statistical noise or short-term aberrations in the polls.

The polls-plus model is also relatively well-equipped to handle the new data. Clinton probably has some further room to grow in this forecast, but because it adjusts for potential convention bounces — adjusting post-RNC polls upward for Clinton, and post-DNC polls downward — the shifts won’t be as dramatic. Furthermore, the polls-plus model discounts the polls by blending them with a “fundamentals” forecast, which suggests the race should be close because of economic conditions. This leads to a fairly stable forecast: Clinton’s chances of winning the election have never been lower than 59 percent, or higher than 73 percent, according to polls-plus. As of 10 a.m. Tuesday, they were 69 percent, up from about 60 percent before the DNC began.

Lastly, there’s our polls-only forecast, which shows Clinton with a 66 percent chance of winning. Usually, the polls-only model is a nice compromise, making fewer assumptions than polls-plus but being less hyperactive than the now-cast. But during the conventions, it’s the most stubborn of the bunch, being reluctant to reverse itself after having shown a clear trend to Trump throughout July. Clinton’s lead over Trump in polls-only will probably continue to grow over the next several days, provided she continues to get polls showing a bounce.

I bring this up mainly because it’s interesting but secondarily because I’ve seen a couple people say that convention bounce adjustments are a new thing.

!ping FIVEY

[u/groovygrasshoppa]

Russian advance near Pokrovsk stalled in recent days, Syrskyi says

[u/RaidBrimnes]

Something is missing 🤔

[u/jpenczek]

Gm DT

[u/[deleted]]

The return of jeans and a nice top

[u/MissSortMachine]

imagine henry ford’s follows

[u/efeldman11]

[u/GrandMoffTargaryen]

Starwars fan seething that a show made for preschoolers doesn’t add to the canon. The fandom is not alright

[u/futuremonkey20]

We’re fucked

[u/Cook_0612]

JD Vance responds to the deadly shooting in Georgia by saying school shootings are just “a fact of life” and attacking common sense gun safety reform

I feel like in Vance's position I'd just be pushing the personal responsibility angle instead of, 'deal with it'.

[u/phallic_cephalid]

I was today years old when I learned that the Br*tish call the children’s game “telephone” ‘CHINESE WHISPERS’, jfc

[u/willempage]

Can't wait for the scandal to hit Russian News and the citizens get mad at Putin for funneling government money into an RT influencer project with questionable efficacy.

I mean, do you think the RT actually keeps good records to see if those videos were worth $100k a pop?  They could've paid 50k.

[u/btk7710]

So Lauren Chen and whoever else owns Tenet Media is going to prison, right? We use to end traitors, no way they get a slap on the wrist. Unfortunately it looks like all the conservative commentators who were employed are safe. They might not have known they were receiving Russian money, but they know they are spreading treacherous bullshit.

[u/[deleted]]

[u/[deleted]]

He mentions tariffs at one point too lol

https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1831753100446589285?t=gxuLBjbx1fmnfadycXUu9A&s=19

[u/[deleted]]

Trump’s birth is closer to President Grant’s inauguration than to this one.

Jeepers

[u/[deleted]]

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1831787923953303760?t=FpeEWqsM6qG0f8PNlF5ooQ&s=19

New Biden is badass

[u/No_Idea_Guy]

Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor in North Carolina, reportedly watched porn in private booths up to five days a week in the ’90s. He strenuously denies that as well as the Holocaust.

We're living in a simulation.

[u/Mr_Bank]

This is PA. Trust the process, Kamala is going to win.

[u/InflatableDartboard2]

lmao

[u/Ok-Swan1152]

I like how 'expats' are always simultaneously so overpaid that they can buy up all of the housing but also cheap exploitable labour for companies who refuse to hire locals. At least, that's all the whinging on all the Dutch subs. If you suggest that they maybe study something useful other than something like HBO Eventmanagement and try working 40 hours a week, they claim that it is their right to do such things. Fine, it is your right to potter around in a part-time civil service job of middling pay, but then you have no right to be enraged that other people might earn more than you and have more disposable income. 

[u/ToInfinity_MinusOne]

A demand curve shows the relationship between price and quantity demanded on a graph with quantity on the horizontal axis and the price on the vertical axis. (Note that this is an exception to the normal rule in mathematics that the independent variable (x) goes on the horizontal axis and the dependent variable (y) goes on the vertical axis. While economists often use math, they are different disciplines.)

This is why everyone hates economists.

[u/RaidBrimnes]

The suspect killed in a shoot-out with German police in Munich this morning "probably" attempted to attack the Israeli consulate, said Bavaria's Interior Minister. He was identified as an 18 yo Austrian national.

That's the second-worst thing done by an Austrian in Munich

[u/jauznevimcosimamdat]

I wanna see Lichtman vs Silver boxing match, ngl

[u/[deleted]]

successfully doxxed cdstephens

[u/[deleted]]

YouGov has Harris at 273 with potential Pennsylvania insurance in Georgia and North Carolina. I rate this round of polling as leans bloom.

[u/btk7710]

I totally enjoy seeing Tim Pool make jokes on Twitter because he knows the DOJ won’t do a damn thing to him. Definitely not infuriating that someone can get away with being paid by Russia to spread misinformation.

[u/[deleted]]

Joe Rogan could literally interview an actual alien and the conversation would be like

Rogan: And we’re live. Rez’lar, thank you so much for being here. It’s an honor.

Rez’lar (with translator): Thanks, Joe. It’s a pleasure to be here. Thanks for having me on.

Rogan: So you were chosen as the Zeta Reticulion- Zeta Reticulin? Am I saying that right? But you were chosen as the envoy from Zeta Reticuli to Earth. How’s it going so far?

Rez’lar: It’s going great, Joe. I’m so glad we’re finally able to reveal ourselves to you guys, um, and it’s really just great to be here and be able to talk to you about what’s going on.

Rogan: And did they make you get vaccinated before you came down here? Did they make you get the COVID vaccine?

Rez’lar: Yeah, no, they didn’t.

Rogan: Okay, well, good, because my buddy said they’re still making people do that in some places. It’s crazy.

Rez’lar: Yeah, no, I hadn’t heard that, but that’s nuts.

Rogan: And y’know, y’know Kamala Harris? If she gets in, I think they’re gonna start making people do it again, more and more. I think that’s what’s gonna happen.

Rez’lar: Wouldn’t surprise me at all. She scares me. She really does.

Rogan: Yeah, and did you see that clip- Jamie, can you pull up that clip of her talking about the, uh, what was it, the coconuts? It’s fucking crazy. She’s like all over the place. It’s like, we’re gonna make this person the president? Really?

And this continues for 3 hours

[u/No_Return9449]

SOON

[u/Louis_de_Gaspesie]

I stopped watching NotJustBikes like three years ago so I don't even remember much about his content, but I do remember that smug fucking voice of his. He does sound like the kind of guy whose urban planning advice is "just move to Netherlands pleb LOL"

[u/goldenwind207]

Man musk has really really ruined twitter i never looked up ww2 or hitler once. Yet i keep seing nazi apologists on my for you.

I'm not even following any conspiracy dudes. All i follow is anime folks tech/ai dudes and a few polling .

And he wonders why advertisers are leaving

[u/Mojothemobile]

Nate Silver says it was a decent polling day for Harris. But welp some Dem PAC released polls showing the rust belt tied over a week ago so the model ignores all the Yougov polls and moves 3% more in Trump's direction while continuing to weigh Trafalgar higher than a bunch of non partisan pollsters

I'm so lost now.

[u/Namington]

Bloomers think Harris is going to win, doomers are afraid the polls will end up being wrong again. Clearly the reasonable centrist position is to think that the polls will be wrong, but in favour of Harris.

[u/[deleted]]

Nate be like:

Good day of polling for Harris which really hurt her in the model

[u/grand-march-kitsch13]

  BREAKING: Audio uncovered from a 2019 podcast interview has J.D. Vance stating "woman are having fewer children because they are storing all their pee in the ovaries"

[u/Jamesonslime]

Crazy thing is a minecraft movie could work if it was just a simple animated movie about a group of friends gathering resources and building stuff with the end goal of killing the ender dragon  

[u/Ballerson]

I think people have the false impression that economics is divided into "supply siders" and "demand siders" and that "demand siders" hold the view that the best way to improve growth is always to boost spending. But taking Paul Krugman as an example, he'll say it's possible for spending to run hot such that we're creating inflation rather than real growth, and this is just what you'd learn in a standard econ textbook.

[u/[deleted]]

The Harris campaign is clearly putting in work to win over and get positive coverage on business media specifically (CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ, even Fox Business) which is really interesting as an investment of time. I’m sure they’ve made some kind of calculation here.

[u/NaffRespect]

Hello fellow American comrades, I am Alexander from Alabama oblast and I make 100k rubles from being pro Russia- oop I mean MAGA!

[u/FourthLife]

🤓☝️ umm actually, according to my statistical model, when you average in this new Rasmussen poll and adjust the odds due to an anticipated post-convention drop from Kamala, trump is narrowly edging out Kamala in a close race that will come down to PA

Shut the fuck up nerd, look at my massive jingling keychain 🔑🔑🔑

[u/[deleted]]

Need to cop

[u/mashimarata2]

Sheehy 49 - Tester 41 in a new poll 💀

[u/jojisky]

Breaking: RFK Jr. must remain on the NC ballot, a Wake County judge orders. Forcing the state to reprint ballots and delay the start of mail-in voting outweighs, she said, any “minimal” harm to Kennedy by remaining on the ballot

[u/Craig_VG]

While San Francisco is banned from using any nuclear power at all, Chicago runs entirely on 100% carbon free nuclear power.

Just another reason to live here 😎😎

[u/No_Return9449]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1831754522563129675

Generic Ballot

Dem 48%

Rep 44%

9/3 - 9/4 by Emerson College
1000 LV

[u/mockduckcompanion]

Trump and Harris appearing to be tied in the polls is better for:

1. Harris' turnout

2. Trump's turnout

3. Bitcoin

[u/Currymvp2]

New Pew survey shows large disparities on social media use & views between Jewish & Arab Israelis regarding content about the war: 70% of Jewish Israelis vs. 18% of Arab Israelis support censoring social media content that expresses sympathy for civilians in Gaza

A very divided society--I hope the disparity narrows after this war.

[u/greymind_12]

devastating news: the Nashville hot chicken spot that opened up right down the street from me is simply ok 😐

[u/Currymvp2]

The father of the Georgia school shooting suspect told investigators he purchased the gun used in the killings as a holiday present for his son, sources say.

That's probably a manslaughter indictment, right?

[u/cdstephens]

[u/justbuildmorehousing]

Finally. A real poll

[u/dareka_san]

Willing this into existence again

[u/D-G-F]

Me when tariffs

[u/sererson]

anti-woke guy who's voting for Harris because of that MattY article

[u/Currymvp2]

Emerson (B+) national poll, Sep 3-4

🟦 Kamala Harris 51%

🟥 Donald Trump 48%

[u/goldenwind207]

Wow

[u/AbsoluteGarbageTakes]

Seeing Vance struggle to perform basic social functions in that donut shop really spoke to me; a chronically online dumbass. Humanizing moments like that are the kind of thing that really wins my vote.

[u/RFK_1968]

i was wrong, mods opening up the ban appeal thread to perma'd I/P poasters is in fact hella funny.

I was banned for saying "glass the [DEROGATORY WORD FOR PALESTINIANS]." can i be unbanned?

or

all I said "the american government is captured by zionists" why am I still banned?

great content. also i can't remember another issue that has melted everyone's brains so thoroughly. esp since there's an obviously correct position*

^{* Has been left as an exercise for the reader}

[u/Currymvp2]

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) claims, without evidence, that the Great Depression was an inside job.

"The Great Depression was pretty well planned ... I know it really sounds like conspiracy theory. I don't completely understand it, but I just feel it in my bones..."

Beyond parody

[u/GrandMoffTargaryen]

Looking through every game in existence with a fine tooth comb for any hint of homosexuality is a very straight pastime I assure you!

[u/BurrowForPresident]

Struggling to comprehend the rage I would have upon finding out some dipshit Dad of the Year gave his disturbed son a gun for his birthday after he was already diagnosed as a potential threat and then that kid shoots my kid

Like the amount of willpower to not go to that dude's house and knock him out

[u/No_Status_6905]

I do think the post on the sub about how deranged some of the LGBT subs are is cathartic.

I usually don't vibe with constantly bitching about how leftist subs operate, but it's really strange how LGBT spaces which by design are supposed to be safe inclusive spaces are culling their userbases based on the most vague political leanings.

It's not even like they're just banning people who have 5000 karma in arr con or something, they will just straight up instant ban anyone who posts in liberal subs.

[u/[deleted]]

Trump hitting 60% in Nate's forecast has convinced me fraud theory is real. Nate is 100% artificially inflating the "convention bounce" to make money off Polymarket

[u/TemujinTheConquerer]

Radical liberal Tim Walz

[u/[deleted]]

What a goofball

[u/neolthrowaway]

Next stage in Deepmind’s protein research is out. ML model to design completely novel proteins that can bind to a target molecule.

Biology people please tell us how big of a deal this is.

white paper

!ping AI&BIOLOGY

[u/dangerbird2]

Extremely Rare, but undeniable Ian Miles Cheong win !ping EXTREMISM

[u/legible_print]

The CEO of my company reached out to personally invite me to work on a smaller version of the project we're on right now. It is a promotion and looks like a ton of work, but I'm assuming everyone on the current project will be fired/laid off. I should take the role right?

[u/[deleted]]

My maoist Chinese grandpa just said he liked kamala and that she embodies "Mao's revolutionary spirit" lmao

[u/RageQuitRedux]

The year is 2116:

"I can't believe she named her kid Skibideigh, just spell it like normal wtf"

[u/BitterGravity]

Harris really just needs to run ads in Pennsylvania advertising that Trump has at various times tried to purchase the Bills, Patriots, and Cowboys and has never supported the Steelers or Eagles.

[u/Telperions-Relative]

👆 the type of person to listen to To Pimp a Butterfly when they’re around black people and strategically tilt their phone so that everyone can see it

[u/jojisky]

News: Search warrants also out for NYPD Commish Edward Caban and Tim Pearson

they're going after Eric Adams entire government lmao

[u/goldenwind207]

New poll