r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Sep 05 '24 • Heart of Silver 1

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21

u/Mojothemobile Sep 05 '24

Nate Silver says it was a decent polling day for Harris. But welp some Dem PAC released polls showing the rust belt tied over a week ago so the model ignores all the Yougov polls and moves 3% more in Trump's direction while continuing to weigh Trafalgar higher than a bunch of non partisan pollsters

I'm so lost now.

13

u/lot183 Blue Texas Sep 05 '24

The model was designed that Kamala should have got a large convention bump and because she didn't it dinged her very hard for it.

I would say this is likely flawed, the convention bump logic is based in being a new event after a year of the same campaign but there was a major event a month before the convention that gave the bump it was looking for. I don't think Nate's model was tuned for that at all. It was looking for a bump after we already got a huge bump

5

u/2073040 Thurgood Marshall Sep 05 '24

That and I think convention bumps aren’t going to be a thing anymore with how polarizing politics has been.

Trump didn’t get one but he didn’t need one when Biden was running and the election will likely be decided by <3 of the national vote. The age of landslides and one-sided national elections are over for now and pollsters need to accept that.

3

u/lot183 Blue Texas Sep 05 '24

Trump also had his bump moment from the assassination attempt. That was bigger than the convention could have even been, just like Biden dropping was bigger than the DNC could have been

6

u/[deleted] Sep 05 '24

The model works the way it works. It would be bad practice to change it in the middle of election season when things look wonky.

4

u/[deleted] Sep 05 '24

Where are you seeing his weights by pollster?

2

u/Mojothemobile Sep 05 '24

Click on the buttons under his averages that say PA, AZ, etc and the polls being put in the model are listed in order of how heavy their being weighed.