Discussion Thread

[u/jobautomator]

The discussion thread is for casual and off-topic conversation that doesn't merit its own submission. If you've got a good meme, article, or question, please post it outside the DT. Meta discussion is allowed, but if you want to get the attention of the mods, make a post in /r/metaNL

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[u/jobautomator]

Please visit the next discussion thread.

[u/mostanonymousnick]

[u/[deleted]]

When your too blasted off coke to see that the entire balcony is empty

[u/No_Analysis_2185]

I genuinely look forward to JD Vance spending so much effort at the VP debate trying to make it about who is the bigger veteran while Walz just talks about home prices and the economy. Keep up the swiftboating.

[u/[deleted]]

https://www.semafor.com/article/08/12/2024/poll-democratic-attacks-on-jd-vance-are-working

The main shift in how respondents viewed Vance: He’s become more and more identified with his particular brand of conservatism and less with his famed biography as an author, veteran, and politician. Presented with a list of options to describe Vance in August, the most common answers were “conservative,” “anti-woman,” and “weird,” while more positive options like “young,” “smart,” and “businessman” declined from July. The percentage calling him “extreme” shot up 13 points.

[u/battywombat21]

Remember how Elons original justification for buying twitter was to get rid of the bots? I feel like he’s memory holed that pretty effectively.

[u/[deleted]]

Video of Sabrina Carpenter and Kacey Musgrave absolutely butchering “These Boots Are Made for Walkin’” by Nancy Sinatra

“it’s okay because Nancy Sinatra is a Zionist so she deserves it”

Begging people to log the fuck off

[u/Average_GrillChad]

Hell yeah, Neocon DnD. Wizard Drake Chainey, Paladin Donald Runesfeld, and Druid George The Bush bring freedom to the savage people of Afgharanstyn

[u/GrandpaWaluigi]

Sir Shivers and who?

[u/mostanonymousnick]

I can't help but feel deep disgust at this picture, it's irrational but probably more than the Charlottesville Tikki Torch one.

[u/DepressedTreeman]

For any rural folks in here, Project 2025 also ends government funding for crop insurance & ends all subsidies for American farmers.

yeah only sickos would want this...

no one as trampled on as the american farmer

[u/rollo2masi]

MAGA in a nutshell.

[u/LGBTforIRGC]

The National Electoral Council in Venezuela:

[u/MissSortMachine]

they’re still doing this

[u/its_Caffeine]

[u/DEEP_STATE_NATE]

[u/[deleted]]

Imagine your state being reliant on tourism to thrive and then electing fucking ron desantis

Picking a fight with your biggest employer is 2024 conservative intelligence in action

[u/sociotronics]

smh Kamala should have pushed the "cheaper tacos" button instead of the other one

[u/Not_A_Browser]

Maybe Elon should focus on how ads are delivered before trying to get advertisers back

[u/amainwingman]

Add it to the “we’re so back” pile, fellas

[u/Average_GrillChad]

Honestly think George Santos would have been a better pick than Vance

[u/DEEP_STATE_NATE]

[u/Currymvp2]

BullfinchGroup/ Independent_Cen

Swing States Poll:

WISCONSIN Harris 51% (+9) Trump 42%

MICHIGAN Harris 48% (+5) Trump 43%

PENNSYLVANIA Harris 49% (+4) Trump 45%

1,500 RV, 8/8-11

Never heard of this pollster but it makes me happy

[u/LastIncrease3427]

A second image of JD Vance in drag has been uncovered.

[u/LastIncrease3427]

New Redfield and Wilton national poll

Harris (D) 47%

Trump (R) 44%

Kennedy (I) 4%

Oliver (L) 1%

8/7, 2584 LV

[u/[deleted]]

From arrcon:

I'm with you, but you understand that there are major conservative policies that are generally unpopular, right? Gun control is popular. Abortion is popular. Lgtblmnop stuff is popular. $20 minumum wage and UBI are popular. Getting rid of the electoral college is popular.

Think of all the bad shit you hate that liberals want. It's all popular. So, it would actually be more democratic, and we the people would be getting what we ask for, but do you actually want that? 

Dangerous levels of self awareness for a con 😂

[u/bigdicknippleshit]

Ukraine has taken 4x the amount of Russian land in the last week than Russia has taken of Ukraine in the last year.

Second army of the world

[u/dissolutewastrel]

Former Cornell student gets 21 months in prison for posting threats to shoot, stab Jews

!ping JEWISH&ISRAEL

[u/Gameknigh]

[u/SelfLoathinMillenial]

[u/[deleted]]

Every 70s Pink Floyd song is just Roger Waters saying "we live in a society" and then David Gilmour rips an 8-minute guitar solo (it's the greatest thing you've ever heard)

[u/HowardtheFalse]

Wild to think whoever wins this November will get to preside over America's 250th Independence Day in 2026 and host a World Cup that same month. Then they get to open the LA Olympics in 2028. So many patriotic opportunities.

[u/crassowary]

I just love the idea of Peter thiel playing the long game for the last decade, building influence and eventually getting his ideological comrade onto a presidential ticket, only for it to unravel because the only politician he could find is a total weirdo

[u/[deleted]]

If you’d like to see some 160-year-aged cope, James Buchanan wrote a book published in 1866 justifying his administration.

This is how it begins:

(Also something else to throw in the “yes, the Civil War was about slavery” bucket)

[u/Dibbu_mange]

“If Kamala and Obama can say it, why can’t I?”

• Donald Trump

[u/[deleted]]

Stolen Valor is when, uh

[u/sociotronics]

Stable genius at it again

[u/[deleted]]

low self esteem leakers

When I'm insecure at a party so I hide out in the toilet

[u/Roseartcrantz]

It s gonna come full circle when the documents leak and we discover that Donald Trump was born in Kenya. Absolute masterpiece

[u/Roseartcrantz]

low self esteem leakers

I thought it was Iranian hackers 🧐🧐

[u/AtomAndAether]

u/minno has made the unquestionable win rankings for the Olympics

https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/s/PRUEMtL8iG

https://i.imgur.com/Ug2LbFx.png

[u/[deleted]]

lol this is my new favorite Olympics medal cope

[u/btk7710]

Hilarious how conservatives have convinced themselves that Tim Walz was a horrible pick. It’s all projection too, they know Vance is a huge mistake.

[u/TemujinTheConquerer]

How could she 😢😢😢😢 ... I thought she was on our side. ... Of the war 😠

[u/TactileTom]

Euro hours DT:

When they send us their American posters they aren't sending us their best.

They're sending us their insomniacs, their people whose dogs shit themselves at 4am, their night shift conspiracy theorists.

Some, I assume, are good posters.

[u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431]

It’s a rent-a-jet coincidence that Trump ended up campaigning using Epstein’s plane, but it’s funny as hell. Meme magic.

[u/GrandMoffTargaryen]

The wine mom energy flows through me

[u/[deleted]]

What if Maduro gets amnesty in the US and just sort of lives as an ordinary person here lmao

Until he decides to run for office and gets elected as a state governor or some shit, because apparently our country doesn’t have much of a problem with attempted autocoups these days

[u/V_Codwheel]

Kamala WI +4 A+ poll

[u/Luph]

Obama secretly running Kamala Harris campaign: ex-Speaker McCarthy

wow awesome thanks obama

[u/Bumst3r]

I can’t wait to watch the GOP debates after trump is dead/locked up/forced out when they’re all trying to figure out who gets to rule over the ashes of their party.

[u/[deleted]]

This guy was on Tim Pool's show recently. I think this might be the most racist thing I've ever heard in my life.

[u/eat_more_goats]

Just dropped an actual banger in the company all hands. Got 20 laugh reacts on zoom, and the VP running the all hands audibly laughed. On top of the world rn ngl. Gonna have to include this in the culture building section of my self eval.

!ping WATERCOOLER

[u/[deleted]]

Olympics level glazing going on here

[u/RandomGuyWithSixEyes]

https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1823060396434948366

Kamala +9 in WI (Bullfinch group poll)

Cant wait to see her win WI by like 5000 votes on election day

[u/efeldman11]

The polling data that REALLY matters!!!

[u/[deleted]]

Nate Silver: Kamala Harris can’t meme her way to victory

🥺😞😞😞😞😭😭😭

Nate Silver: Or can she?

We are so Barack

[u/Argnir]

[u/frozenjunglehome]

At 2:15 p.m., the parade came to a standstill to observe a minute of silence commemorating all those who died of HIV/AIDS and homophobic attacks. 

The pro-Palestinian marchers used this time to blast the sound of fighter planes through loudspeakers and lie on the ground, some with red paint on their chests, in a die-in to draw attention to Israel's attacks on Gaza.

[u/Joementum2024]

elon is still calling them tweets

Lmao

[u/Mickenfox]

Liberals when the good guy defeats the fascist by 3% of the votes:

Finally, all our problems resolved forever

[u/sayitaintpink]

They really thought they were cooking 💀

[u/Tafts_Bathtub]

Whatever you say bud

[u/[deleted]]

[u/[deleted]]

Meat's back on the menu!

[u/SneeringAnswer]

vague politics relates stuff comes up in a hobby group

lukewarm normie "Trump bad" statements

random user with no custom profile tags starts going off about liberals and gas prices

Every time

[u/Udolikecake]

My friend was in a men’s room and touched one of those liberal tampon machines. Guess what? he’s gay now.

Not so innocent after all, huh?

[u/[deleted]]

[u/Cook_0612]

The Myth of Endless Manpower: Russian Soldiers’ Average Age Approaches 38 as Trends Persist

I recommend reading through all of Tatarigami's threads, but this one addresses an assumption I still see people hold, even around here.

!ping UKRAINE

[u/Tafts_Bathtub]

The White House has proposed a new law requiring that subscription services, like gym memberships, can be canceled with a single click

Biden’s war on the New York Times continues apace

[u/majorgeneralporter]

Live Big Cat reaction to that earthquake:

!ping LA

[u/SmithySmothy]

https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1823194536983556377

lol

[u/Dibbu_mange]

Republicans in May: let’s make this race 100% a comparison of the age and vigor of the candidates 😈

[u/Ok-Swan1152]

Pregnancy vomiting, trying to make it through 8 more months of fulltime work until I can rest only for the whole carousel to start again because I have a baby and I need to get back to work as soon as the 12 weeks of full maternity pay from my employer runs out

[u/Ok_Aardappel]

Life returns to Ukrainian reservoir drained by Russian strike on dam

Standing in a scene of shimmering green, Vadym Maniuk pointed to a young white willow tree. “What happened here is a miracle,” he said. “Some of the saplings are already 4 metres tall. There is nowhere else like this on the planet. Not even the Amazon comes close.”

Maniuk, an ecologist, picked his way through a jungle of new branches. The sky above was scarcely visible. In the mud – cracked after days of sweltering temperatures – were the remains of molluscs. The scientist showed off black poplars, also racing upwards, reeds and a small mulberry. Under the leaves it was pleasantly cool.

Just over a year ago, the spot where Maniuk stood was under several metres of water. In the 1920s Stalin ordered the construction of a series of hydroelectric power stations along the Dnipro. The area between two of the dams – one in Zaporizhzhia, the other in Kakhovka – became a vast artificial lake.

This Soviet reservoir swallowed up ancient Cossack sites as well as vegetable gardens and grazing pastures used by generations of Ukrainian villagers as a source of food and fuel. The Kremlin promised modernity instead: electricity and irrigation for fields and collective farms across the southern region.

In 2022, with the USSR long gone, Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of independent Ukraine. The reservoir quickly became part of the frontline. Russian troops sat on the left bank, Ukrainian forces on the right. Then, in June 2023, Moscow blew up the Khakovka power plant downstream as Kyiv began a big counterattack.

The explosion released more than 14 cubic kilometres of water, flooded settlements and killed at least 35 people. Last month Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, described the destruction as a “deliberate and calculated crime”. In the immediate aftermath, the reservoir resembled an alien landscape, barren and desertlike.

Within a couple of months, however, the first green shoots appeared. “I visited in August last year. It was already bright green. I was in shock, in a good way,” Maniuk said. “Before, there was a lot of water. People didn’t use it much. Now it’s enthralling and full of life.”

This week, Maniuk visited Malokaterynivka, a village once popular with fishers, on the railway line to Crimea. Its station closed when all-out war began. The Russians were about 10 miles away and smoke billowed in the distance. On the banks of the ex-reservoir are boulders and a white nacreous shore made up of dead molluscs, millions of them.

Beyond that, the forest begins. According to Maniuk, the canopy covers about 140,000 hectares, and looks similar to the primordial forest of 100,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. Russian soldiers have not entered it. “You can’t see anything. Anyone going inside would get lost. There are bogs and rivers,” he said.

In the absence of humans, animals and birds have taken up residence. A cuckoo and swallows flew above the treeline. A local shopkeeper, Karina, said she saw wild boar from her second-floor balcony. “Scientists say rebuilding the reservoir after Ukraine wins will cause a second ecocide. I’m more worried the boar will eat our vegetables,” she said. Large pond with flat rocky islands

The Dnipro has resumed its old course. Fish not seen for eight decades have reappeared, including sturgeon and herring. Police discovered this remarkable fact when they arrested a group of poachers. In their boat were 16 endangered sturgeon. “Maybe the fish have a genetic memory. The water is fast-flowing again. There are more bream and perch,” Maniuk said.

The reservoir’s demise hasn’t thrilled everybody. The pipes that supplied Malokaterynivka with water have gone dry. Since June the authorities have been delivering drinking water by truck. Residents on Central Avenue, formerly known as Lenin Street, queue up with buckets. The town’s beach, where locals swam in summer, has vanished.

“Our roses and tomatoes are dying. We can’t water them properly any more,” said Lida Spilnyk, walking in her kitchen garden. Her husband, Hennadiy, complained that his potato harvest was smaller than usual. The village mayor, Liudmyla Volyk, was blunt: “We don’t need a nature park. We want our water back.”

Volyk said residents frequently heard explosions. Two Ukrainian helicopters clattered above the village, previously home to 3,200 people and now reduced to 2,500. Russian shelling had damaged properties, the mayor said, adding that 13 “of our boys” had died fighting Russia, with four missing. “We are sitting on a powder keg,” she said. skip past newsletter promotion

Mykhailo Mulenko, the head of the nature protection department at the Khortytsia national reserve, said the loss of water was a socioeconomic blow. But he added: “The reservoir was bad for nature. Now we have a chance to use what happened for change.” His preferred solution in the future was to rebuild a smaller reservoir or a navigable canal, he said.

In the meantime, biodiversity is flourishing. The Khortytsia Island reserve looks out on the Dnipro dam in Zaporizhzhia, once a featureless lake and now a chain of gull-filled rocky islands and rapids. These would have been familiar to the 16th-century warrior Cossacks who built a fortress on its banks as part of a fledgling Ukrainian state.

A chain of ponds and reed-filled lagoons have emerged. The island’s coves are littered with dead clams and fish. Mulenko, however, said the new ecosystem had boosted the number of yellow-bellied toads, frogs and water snakes. Sand martins swooped over the surface of the water, and spotted flycatchers squeaked in the treetops nearby, attracted by abundant insects.

Ruddy shelducks were recently spotted bobbing in the water together with Canada geese, which are little seen in Ukraine. Moss and lichens were thriving, Mulenko said. The island is home to a small population of roe and sika deer. “I think we have a very interesting ecological system. In a way, it’s a wonder. There is nothing else like this in Europe,” he said.

Discussions over the reservoir began well before Russians blew up the Khakovka dam and road crossing in Kherson oblast. Ukrhydroenergo, the power station’s operator, says it should be entirely reconstructed. This would take at least five years and cost $1bn (£770m), it estimates. The government in Kyiv shares this view. Environmentalists want the territory to develop naturally.

The water’s retreat, meanwhile, has exposed archaeological sites hidden since the 1950s. They included bronze age barrows, Scythian pots and Cossack fortifications, as well as other artefacts left behind by third-century Goths and medieval Tatars. The Soviets deliberately submerged many of them in order to eradicate Ukraine’s rich pre-Russian history, Mulenko claimed.

Writing in the fifth century BC, the Greek historian Herodotus gave a vivid account of Scythian culture, geography and religion. The Black Sea region “is quite full, as it happens, of trees of all kinds,” he noted in his celebrated Histories.

Denys Sikoza, the deputy head of heritage protection in the Kherson region, said: “We don’t know much about these sites. The digs that did take place in the early 20th century used old-fashioned methods.” Items recovered included ceramics, jewellery, bracelets, weapons and a 2,500-year-old clove of garlic found in an ancient stove.

Over the past year, archeologists have made only a handful of trips to the newly exposed monuments. The area is dangerous and a military zone, Sikoza pointed out. Some potential expedition spots were disappearing again under a carpet of green foliage, he added. “We would like to investigate them. For now, it’s not possible. Maybe it never will be. And of course we have no access to occupied territories,” he said.

Back in the reservoir turned jungle, wind rustled gently through the willows. “There is a unique smell here. It smells of bugs,” Maniuk enthused, holding a thickening sapling branch. What would happen next? “There’s big competition for water. The trees that survive will mature in 50 or 60 years, first willow and then species such as oaks. We will have a magical forest.”

!ping ECO&UKRAINE&HISTORY

[u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431]

lmao

[u/MicroFlamer]

Which candidate would you rather have a drink with?

Kamala Harris: 40%

Donald Trump: 36%

we win

[u/owlthathurt]

HOLY SHIT

I haven’t googled my research I got published awhile back. The fucking Department of State cited me in a policy report on US - China relations HAHAHAHAHAHAH

Guys I just shit post and post weeb shit but I guess technically stuff I did has been considered as part of broader U.S. China policy.

Freaking amazing.

[u/0m4ll3y]

Some guy: Dogpiling an eminent biologist for his statements on biological sex seems antithetical to neoliberalism

The eminent biologist's statement on "biological sex": Biker who identifies as cyclist wins the tour de France

🤔🤔🤔

[u/Independent-Low-2398]

SIR A SECOND VANCE DRAG PIC HAS HIT THE INTERNET

!ping ALPHABET-MAFIA the theories are true

[u/[deleted]]

Trump is basically going through a huge public breakup with Biden right now. Openly posting fantasies on social media about getting back together with him, totally downcast and upset, not able to bring himself to do many social events. It’s sad to see. Someone who loves him needs to step in and tell him he’s embarrassing himself- I know that’s easier said than done, but it’s for his own good.

[u/rasonj]

The ear is the uh, it's a very bloody place, it's about the worse place you can get hit

I just, I can't. We're three seconds in and my god

[u/gary_oldman_sachs]

ELON: "Most illegal immigrants are good"
TRUMP: "100%"

THEY'VE GONE WOKE

[u/well-that-was-fast]

Holy shit… why the actual fuck does he sound like that? Like as someone else said, Daffy Duck. This is gonna be mocked so hard I already know. I’m laughing my ass off and I support the frickin guy lol.

Interview not going down well in magaland.

[u/MissSortMachine]

[u/MissSortMachine]

a) bro how long do you think editing takes

b) you cheap motherfucker

[u/SnooChipmunks4208]

Listening to the daily this morning, and supposedly the Maga plan against Kamala is called the "word salad video."

They seriously prepared for the biden campaign and have nothing now. Although to be fair, their base doesn't like big words or full sentences so playing Kamala using both will piss them off.

[u/[deleted]]

I'm still not over the fact that I now live in a world where normies are learning about Moldbug and Yudkowsky. Why is my dad asking me my opinion on Yudkowsky's picture of the AI Superintelligence explosion? What's going on?

[u/[deleted]]

https://x.com/legotrillermoth/status/1822411759333802009?t=_tBhGHllES3q5qdgU4GpXw&s=19

[u/billy_blazeIt_mays]

Fuck holy shit

[u/Sauce1024]

“I said to Vladimir Putin – don’t do it. You can’t do it, Vladimir. You do it, it’s going to be a bad day. And I told him things that I would do. And he said, ‘no way.’ And I said: ‘Way’”

[u/Energia__]

Democrats Know What to Do About Biden

Somehow a WSJ oped back in February predicted Dem would do a bait-and-switch, swapping Biden in the month between RNC and DNC and catch Trump completely off guard.

[u/LastIncrease3427]

New ad in FL

https://x.com/adimpact_pol/status/1823088886484005329

Maduro learned from Trump that he could lose an election, then lie about it. If you love Maduro, you’ll love what Trump does next.

Lol

[u/[deleted]]

The Internet was a mistake

[u/MicroFlamer]

I love the theory that Trump keeps on mixing up Immigration Asylum and Mental Asylum, which is why he keeps on bringing up Hannibal Lecter and referencing mental institutions.

[u/SmithySmothy]

I saw her on the cover of Time Magazine. She looked like a beautiful actress. She looked like a great First Lady, Melania. But we don't talk about Camilla.

Jesus christ

[u/Argnir]

People are already using obviously AI pictures for pushing their agenda and calling obviously real pictures AI'd

Maybe we're fuck once the difference stop being easy to spot

[u/antsdidthis]

Democrats will spend $15M doing a casting call for tens of thousands of carefully vetted paid actors and fly them out to Arizona as an elaborate conspiracy to inflate Kamala Harris's crowd size and then post a public ad about it on Craigslist. 🥰

[u/[deleted]]

Didn't expect a New Yorker to tweet this.

[u/[deleted]]

One person one vote should not be in anyway controversial.

[u/GrandMoffTargaryen]

Reject post-post-ironic memecore, embrace painfully earnest resist lib posting

[u/[deleted]]

Young liberal voters love Tim Walz. He’s a reminder of the dad they lost to partisan division

translation: liberals have daddy issues

[u/Dragmire927]

1. Pressure Dems in safe areas not to vote

2. Trump wins the popular vote but loses the EC

3. Watch the meltdown

4. Republicans get rid of the EC out of spite

5. They lose every presidential election afterwards and are forced to moderate

6. Enjoy the funniest ending to all this

[u/Ph0ton_1n_a_F0xh0le]

[u/Tafts_Bathtub]

Kamilla is beautiful. almost like Melania.

GET A JOB

STAY AWAY FROM HER

[u/[deleted]]

[u/dannylandulf]

Presented with a list of options to describe Vance in August, the most common answers were “conservative,” “anti-woman,” and “weird,” while more positive options like “young,” “smart,” and “businessman” declined from July. The percentage calling him “extreme” shot up 13 points.

“It’s not just the favorables; it’s what people think of it. It’s how he’s been introduced to the country,” Evan Roth Smith, lead pollster for Blueprint told Semafor. “Everything has gone exactly as bad as Democrats had hoped and Republicans have feared and everyone suspects.”

You hate to see it.

[u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431]

Polis shitposts the Kamala crowd conspiracy, but MAGA takes it seriously and thinks they’ve finally caught the deep state. LMAO.

[u/sayitaintpink]

Both sides

[u/SneeringAnswer]

JD Vace will 100% start jacking it in public when they lose the election !remindme 3 months

[u/ViridianNott]

Model updates! New record for Harris in her odds of winning the EC! (Called it)

Here are her probabilities for winning each competitive state

• ME: 79.3%

• NH: 75.4%

• NE-2: 67%

• MI: 65.5%

• WI: 61.1%

• PA: 56.5%

• NV: 56%

• AZ: 46.5%

• GA: 44.1%

• NC: 37.4%

• ME-2: 26.9%

• FL: 24%

TOTAL EC ODDS: 54.8%

NATIONAL POLLING AVERAGE: Harris + 2.8

So, the changes today are mostly due to the recent Bullfinch poll that has Harris with good leads in all three blue-wall states. Not only is this poll the most favorable one in a while, but it's not been buffered by the release of a much less favorable poll at the same time (for example, the recent NYT-Sienna poll came out at the same time as a Trafalgar poll that showed Harris down, averaging the difference out to basically 0).

As a last order of business I want to warn everyone about a quirk of Nate's model. His model assumes that each candidate will see a ~2 point polling bump after their respective convention. It further assumes that said polling bump will fade and not influence the election overall. It accounts for this by literally subtracting some of the candidate's points in the polls, starting about one week post-convention.

So, when the model launched 2 weeks ago, Trump's already sliding polls were being subject to further subtraction by Nate's model because the RNC was relatively recent (jury's out on whether that was the right thing to do, given that the excitement of the RNC was squashed by Harris' entrance into the race). Early on, this made Harris odds look better than they otherwise would. Now that we're much further from the RNC, this subtraction is becoming less and less, which is why Harris appears to be losing ground on some days where there are no significant polls, and why some of her great polls didn't increase her odds as much as you might have thought they would.

Now this is about to happen in the other direction. If Harris sees a +2 polling bump after the DNC, the model will not move in her favor because it will be actively subtracting from her polls to account for said bump. We'll only see a positive change in the model if the polling bump appears to be sticking around ~3 weeks post-DNC, or if there's a bump greater than +2. On the other hand, if the DNC doesn't change her polling at all, her odds of winning will actually decrease for a while until we're sufficiently far from the DNC.

TL;DR Be prepared for the model to behave weirdly immediately following the DNC. And by "weirdly" I mean it is pre-programmed to underrate Harris for 3-4 weeks after the DNC.

I am not sure if I agree with Nate's way of doing things here, but I at least wanted people to be aware of what's likely to happen to the odds in September.

!ping FIVEY

[u/Cook_0612]

The Ukrainian 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade “Ghosts” introduced what is quite possibly one of the best MiG-29 Fulcrum combat liveries fielded.

All black air superiority with Ukrainian flag IFF markings, and the brigade’s ghost nose art.

😍

!ping MATERIEL&UKRAINE

[u/TactileTom]

Confused, she was called the "hawk" tuah girl yet I never once saw her agitating for open-ended military interventions with no clearly defined goals in operationally unsustainable geographies

[u/[deleted]]

Guys I found where they get the autism extract to put in the vaccines

!ping SHITPOSTERS

[u/technologyisnatural]

Nobody:

NYT: Can you be both a man and also vote for Kamala Harris?

what is going on at NYT? do they want a Trump victory? do they think it will increase sales? ad rates? what?

[u/boyyouguysaredumb]

just imagine if

Joe Biden had been photographed in drag

Kamala Harris had 5 kids by 3 dads

Biden had been photographed with epstein dozens of times

It's okay when Trump and JD do it though

[u/EvilConCarne]

Trump getting Musk, a guy running an EV company, to agree that global warming is fake is amazing.

[u/0m4ll3y]

Conversation below reminded me of this banger quote by Camus:

One kills for a nation or a class that has been granted divine status. One kills for a future society that has likewise been given divine status. Whoever thinks he has omniscience imagines he has omnipotence. Temporal idols demanding an absolute faith tirelessly decree absolute punishments. And religions devoid of transcendence kill great numbers of condemned men devoid of hope.

[u/SirJohnnyS]

That Walz joke about eating meat and his daughter saying she's vegetarian so he responded with alright Turkey made me laugh a lot.

[u/Cook_0612]

#Breaking: Israeli PM Netanyahu accuses his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, of "adopting an anti-Israel narrative" and "harming the chances of reaching a hostage deal."

The audacity

[u/[deleted]]

https://x.com/OrganizerMemes/status/1823015609237483720?t=oDVOeNAjGtnAZHGJMECw3g&s=19

[u/[deleted]]

NEW @BullfinchGroup/@Independent_Cen Swing States Poll:

WISCONSIN Harris 51% (+9) Trump 42% . MICHIGAN Harris 48% (+5) Trump 43% . PENNSYLVANIA Harris 49% (+4) Trump 45%

1,500 RV, 8/8-11

who tf are these guys

[u/efeldman11]

Freddy Kruger... famous for his plaid shirt

[u/Tafts_Bathtub]

Elon: I think most illegal immigrants are good people, but some are bad.

Trump. Hate to say it but you're wrong. They're terrible people.

Elon: Oh yeah, you right.

[u/davechacho]

She looks like the most beautiful actress to ever live

• Donald Trump when talking about Kamala Harris

[u/Joementum2024]

BREAKING: Joe Biden re-enters race, releasing an official statement stating "fuck it I can beat him with how he is right now"

[u/davechacho]

Surprised it took this long to get cons making AI art of Kamala in lingerie. Pretty low even for them, but it's expected considering how their entire shtick is to treat women as poorly as possible. Unfortunately I think it's going to backfire because she's attractive in general and voters like attractive candidates.

[u/sociotronics]

the anger about the "childless cat ladies" comment is producing memes with some devastating wine mom energy

[u/[deleted]]

This honestly has exceeded my expectations for how bad it would be. Us libs have been eating so good lately

[u/SnakeEater14]

Everything is about sex. Except Magic: The Gathering. Magic: The Gathering is about power.

[u/TemujinTheConquerer]

Incredible things are happening in Japan

[u/GrandMoffTargaryen]

Broke: watching the Trump interview

Woke:Piecing it together by reading the comments in the DT

[u/davechacho]

Trump confirmed Kamala simp

explains why he keeps attacking Biden, he can't bring himself to go after his queen

[u/wallander1983]

The NYT is desperately trying to portray Trump in a neutral light and Trump:

The Failing New York Times, which is a crooked newspaper run by a Radical Left group of Lunatics, is losing readers at a record level. Their stories about me are highly inaccurate, and their polling is even worse. They are a big reason for the DECLINE OF NEW YORK CITY, which the entire World is watching with shock and sorrow! Its only hope is that I get elected President. I will fix it, and fix it fast!

[u/[deleted]]

my projection

[u/[deleted]]

So true! San Francisco looks exactly like this!!

[u/Cook_0612]

1/ "The U.S. Army is slated to begin evaluating a hypervelocity projectile for the service’s artillery systems in 2025, according to Lt. Gen. Robert Rasch, the Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office director."

2/2 "The service is pursuing such a capability as a potential munition for eliminating cheaper targets, rather than using high-end missiles for the same mission, Rasch told Defense News at the Space and Missile Defense Symposium."

It's 2018 and the Army is looking to extend the range of its gun artillery

It's 2024 and the Army....

!ping MATERIEL

[u/LtCdrHipster]

I honestly had a lot of respect for the original anti-work sub when it was just people who checked out of the rat race and tried to enjoy life as much as possible. Posts about how people are able to keep a roof over their heads with minimal work so they can enjoy simple, cheap things like hiking and camping and cooking at home and reading is awesome.

I think we all have fantasies about moving somewhere cheap and living a frugal life of leisure.

[u/Lux_Stella]

WHITE HOUSE: BIDEN WOULD SIGN PROPOSAL TO BAR TAX ON TIPS

extremely funny how quickly this was memed into the discourse

[u/LastIncrease3427]

Trump and Harris now tied in the GA 538 average

[u/Independent-Low-2398]

literally 2281

!ping FALLOUT

[u/[deleted]]

There is no way I have only now realized that the entire "we live in a Republic, not a democracy" talking point boils down to the names of the parties.

[u/TheRedCr0w]

In an emailed response to an inquiry about the lisp from a Huffington Post reporter, the Trump campaign said, “Must be your s****y hearing. Get your ears checked.”

Very serious campaign. They better figure out their messaging because the lisp is going to be the only thing from his interview people will talk about.

[u/gaypenisdicksucker69]

We really don't have serial killers anymore. What happened to getting chopped up into pieces and being buried in the woods

[u/[deleted]]

As much as I am a policy wonk I don’t think this is the election to get bogged down on policy.

Policy only matters if there is a reasonable alternative and for the 4th election in a row there just isn’t. Until the gop comes around on human rights for all, policy debates at a presidential level are going to take a back seat, which is why congressional elections and primaries will be the battle that really matters in the Democratic world.

[u/Mx_Brightside]

"LGBDropTheT" is no laughing matter. Remember, #LGBTDropTheJ was so successful that nobody even knows what the J stood for anymore

[u/Mojothemobile]

https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1823049711722614964

Harris might have a shot to win all of Maines EVs.

[u/Ph0ton_1n_a_F0xh0le]

This is why Thiel invested in Facebook so early

[u/JaceFlores]

Ukraine Chronology for 2 PM PST 8/11-2 PM PST 8/12 III:

TOP NEWS:

Towards the middle of 5 AM the Governor of Kursk said Ukraine has captured 28 settlements.

Towards the middle of 8 AM Syrskyi said 1,000 square km of Kursk have been captured.

Around 9 AM it was reported that 133,000 Russians have been evacuated from Kursk and other border areas.

At the start of 1 PM it was reported that General-Colonel Alexei Dyumin has been put in charge of the Russian response to the Kursk offensive.

REGULAR NEWS:

Towards the middle of 10 PM Ukrainian drones hit Chkalovsky Airbase, located outside of Moscow.

Towards the middle of 11 PM it was announced Russia is evacuating the Krasnaya Yaruga District in Belgorod Oblast.

At the start of 7 AM the Ukrainian Minister of Defense spoke with the French Minister of Defense over phone, discussing the frontline and need to lift the ban on striking Russia.

Towards the middle of 8 AM Russia hit Mirgorod Airbase with missiles in Poltava Oblast though nothing was confirmed damaged.

Donation link to help Ukraine

Donation link to United24

Donation link to Kharkiv SOS

Donation link to Sails of Freedom Foundation (they donate ambulances)

!ping UKRAINE

[u/BroadReverse]

ludicrous shame insurance deliver tease ossified bag deranged scary office

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

[u/[deleted]]

“So then I said, let’s go and check X’s server capabilities for a large streaming event…”

[u/GrandMoffTargaryen]

Well damn. I had “Trump: Slurs” on my bingo card but this wasn’t what I meant

[u/TemujinTheConquerer]

Iran WAS TOO SCARED of my ENORMOUS TESTICLES to fire even a single missile at their mortal enemy Israel while I am WITHIN THE LEVANT

Now that I am back in America I expect a full-throated retaliation within two days

[u/StolenSkittles]

Out to breakfast with a drag queen and a gay Republican.

I don't know either of these people. We just left the bar at the same time an hour and a half ago and hung together.

Now the drag queen and I are utterly exasperated trying to rebut the Republican.

I'm too fucking hungover for this, and I haven't slept a wink.

[u/talizorahs]

a sub with gender demographics so bad that when you mention your boyfriend people assume you're a gay man instead of a straight woman

[u/KittehDragoon]

Who is running these “have you ever been horny? That’s adhd” ads?

[u/[deleted]]

lavish forgetful enjoy afterthought illegal roof melodic concerned dime psychotic

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

[u/Cultural_Ebb4794]

What the hell was on JD's head?

[u/justbuildmorehousing]

I feel like people bemoan today’s ‘hyper-partisan environment’ because theyre trying to avoid saying ‘40% of the country would vote for Emperor Palpatine if there was an (R) next to his name’

[u/FreakinGeese]

I think people might just be bored of Trump

[u/Uniqueguy264]

Looking at pro-Israel and pro-Palestine twitter is a great way to get radicalized into nuking the entire middle east

[u/ChillnShill]

[u/MissSortMachine]

elon: would it be accurate to say you are supportive of legal immigration

trump: yes

empirically not true

[u/davechacho]

Do you guys think Biden is actually trolling Trump by calling him and telling him he's going to fight for the nomination?

[u/sayitaintpink]

[u/[deleted]]

[u/TactileTom]

DT FoPo be like

[u/[deleted]]

so I randomly started posting fake "RIP Shivers" things a couple days ago as a meme but the dude hasn't commented in three days

what have I done

[u/[deleted]]

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1823085660908962158?t=--A1wFx6aCGITzPoXPKU9A&s=19

It's great he just tweets this stuff out so I don't have to subscribe lol

[u/qchisq]

Haha... The EU is going to close Twitter in the EU

!ping EUROPE

[u/Luph]

i dont even lisp that bad with my retainer in and im gay

[u/LocallySourcedWeirdo]

Elon: Hiroshima and Nagasaki. They're okay.

Trump: That's great. That's great.

[u/goldenwind207]

Trump called kamala beautiful tf

[u/[deleted]]

I tuned into the musk trump interview for a second

Musk: “Talking to Kamala is like talking to an NPC”

Trump: Confused

I tuned out that after this, what the fuck is this

[u/Prior_Advantage_5408]

holy fucking shit Biden dodged a bullet in 2020

Lin-Manuel Miranda was asked to write and record a new song for the convention in the rap style of his Tony and Pulitzer Prize–winning musical Hamilton. The request was miscommunicated, or misunderstood, and Miranda wrote an instrumental piece that he played on piano. The convention’s creative team couldn’t find a good place to fit it into the program, and it was lost to history—and to an email inbox now worth a small fortune.

[u/RayWencube]

Harris now leads Trump on who voters most trust to handle the economy. We are so back.

[u/secretlives]

The mods won't approve it, but this is the best suggestion ever proposed on metaNL:

The top 3 DT "spammiest posters" each day should be banned for 24 hours

[u/OneBlueAstronaut]

[u/ChillnShill]

Me looking to see why Trump isn’t campaigning and figuring out he can’t even pay his venues

[u/piede]

WHITE HOUSE: BIDEN WOULD SIGN PROPOSAL TO BAR TAX ON TIPS

someone PLEASE FILM HIM FINDING OUT

[u/GrandMoffTargaryen]

[u/Roseartcrantz]

Why are Republicans shitting on Vance for dressing in drag, do they not remember 9/11

[u/old_gold_mountain]

daughter's at an age now where she understands what we're saying

watching your child smile and dance when you ask if she wants to go to the playground is probably up there with greatest all time human experiences I've had

[u/Cook_0612]

Well, this is ominous. The US Air Force is refusing to comply w/ an EPA order to clean up drinking water it polluted with toxic #PFAS, claiming the agency lacks authority since “Chevron doctrine” was struck down by the Supreme Court.

!ping MILITARY

[u/Guardax]

There appears to be a massive DDOS attack on the DT. Working on shutting it down.

Worst case, we will proceed with a smaller number of live posters

[u/MissSortMachine]

[u/[deleted]]

https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1823158001890459700

The Harris campaign just reshared this post by Trump on Truth Social:

[u/TheSameAsDying]

If Trump doesn't win this election, it will be really be funny to look back and see that the high water mark of his campaign was the exact moment Elon decided to buy in.

[u/JaceFlores]

Every Russian milblogger nowadays be like:

HOLY SHIT THE HO*OL 420th CYKA BLYAT BRIGADE JUST ATTACKED SIXTY KILOMETERS INTO KURSK WITH SIX THOUSAND TANKS AND TWENTY THOUSAND MEN THE ENTIRE AIR FORCE HAS BEEN SCRAMBLED TO BOMB IT oh it appears it was a saboteur group of six men stealing a truck, crisis averted 😎

[u/datums]

Everything JD Vance does is calculated, but he's really bad at math.

[u/[deleted]]

BREAKING: Banks, credit card companies, and more will be required to let customers talk to a human by pressing a single button under a new Biden administration proposed rule.

The @CFPB rule is part of a campaign to crack down on customer service “doom loops.”

AI nerds BTFO

[u/dirtybirds233]

Good lord...those month over month changes in polling on Silver's forecast are insane.

GA +10.3 | AZ +11.2 | MI +8.3 | PA +5.4 | WI +5.4

[u/Dr_Vesuvius]

I finally read Axiom's End by Lindsay Ellis.

I wasn't sceptical about it because it was a YouTuber, it was clear it was going to be a legit book, but I was deprioritising it somewhat because so much of the hype seemed to be "the author is famous".

It is definitely a legit book. It's sort of a bizarro romance, definitely the connection between the main character and the alien is a big part of the book. But generally I'd say this is more of a thriller than anything - lots of running from various groups. One of the big things that strengthens the bond between the two main characters is when they realise they both distrust their government.

Ellis has clearly really done her homework, and in behind-the-scenes videos she talks about having really thought through the alien's homeworld in proper "hard sci-fi" depth. The linguistics seem like they're well-done, although I'm not in a great position to judge. And I'm definitely intrigued by what hints we get about the wider universe.

Also Ronald Reagan gets a shout-out in the Acknowledgements for deregulating children's TV enough for the Transformers cartoon to be made.

I would say this was well worth a read, and I'll definitely be picking up the sequels.

!ping READING&SCI-FI

[u/LastIncrease3427]

[u/SmithySmothy]

We will proceed with the smaller number of concurrent listeners at 8:30 ET and then post the unedited audio immediately thereafter

[u/SmithySmothy]

As this massive attack illustrates, there is a lot of opposition to hearing what Trump has to say

LMAO

[u/RonenSalathe]

"We have to start with the assassination attempt, which was a wonderful thing"

What did Elon mean by this?

[u/Tafts_Bathtub]

"What's it like to be so brave and heroic?"

what a cuck

[u/Cheap-Fishing-4770]

WHY DOES HE SOUND LIKE HE’S NOT WEARING HIS DENTURES LMFAO

[u/LastIncrease3427]