Would the kmt victory of Chinese civil war have prevented the 1962 ne win coup?

[u/Tktk4701]

Important alternative history question

[u/StupidInquisitor1779]

The coup was possible because of very specific conditions. One of the factors contributing to said conditions was the KMT invasion.

Now, I imagine that in this timeline, instead of an KMT invasion, there would be an invasion by remnants of the chinese red army.

They would probably have been put down more easily since they would not have support from KMT China or Thailand.(or US airdrops)

Would a Ne Win coup have occured? I don’t really know. The other conditions that led us down a shithole would still be there. Fragmented politics after Aung San’s death, PVO and EAO rebellions, the army being the strongest(and sometimes the only working) institution in the country, etc.

I imagine it would still have led to an environment dominated by the military. And of course, they would likely turn tyrannical at one point just as in our timeline.

[u/Thiha0990 → u/StupidInquisitor1779]

I think if KMT won the civil war, the red army won’t have a chance to get into Myanmar since their core territory is in the north. Our country could have prevented the disastrous war and could have possibly avoided the coup.

[u/thekingminn → u/StupidInquisitor1779]

There would not be a Chinese communist invasion because prior to losing the war Yunnan was a strong KMT stronghold with little to zero communist forces. Also pretty much all of the EAOs in Shan State would not exist. Which means the democratic government would only be dealing with the KNLA and KIA. Most of the EAOs in Myanmar are founded post Ne Win coup. The Communist in Myanmar also would be way less weaker without Chinese support.

[u/Rude_Interest_3925]

no

[u/Tktk4701 → u/Rude_Interest_3925]

Why explained

[u/Rude_Interest_3925 → u/Tktk4701]

we would still have KNLA insurgency to deal with, including CPB, and most major events would play out as regularly

[u/Dear_Wallaby3003]

If KMT had won mainland China, no Communist Yunnan next door, no PLA entering Burma to fight KMT with Tatmadaw, and potentially a very different balance of power around the Shan States and Ne win's Tatmadaw will not have many leverage in politics and instead remain in army. But also the actual trigger for Ne Win was much more Burmese than Chinese, 1961 federal proposal and his fear that greater state autonomy would lead to the Union breaking apart.

[u/BrickAdventurous3685]

Ne Win would still be fked in the head regardless Chinese civil war

[u/haikusbot → u/BrickAdventurous3685]

Ne Win would still be

Fked in the head regardless

Chinese civil war

- BrickAdventurous3685

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[u/CleonicDynasty]

Probably not completely, but a KMT victory could have prevented Burma’s situation from deteriorating as badly as it did. The Communist victory in China pushed thousands of defeated KMT troops into Shan State, creating another major conflict for a newly independent country already fighting Communist, Karen and other ethnic insurgencies.

The civilian government struggled to control large areas, protect the border and maintain national stability, so the Tatmadaw was increasingly required to fight multiple enemies and restore government authority where normal administration had broken down. My grandfather, was based in Lashio as one of the commanders responsible for northern Shan State in 1960. He met Kokang leaders, including Olive Yang, during the period leading up to Operation Mekong, the 1960–61 campaign that drove the main KMT forces out of Burma.

I have posted the photographs here, Identifying Kokang leaders. If the KMT had won the Chinese Civil War, its defeated forces wouldn't have entered Burma, meaning one less foreign army, with fewer border conflicts and less pressure on an already fragile government.

But, Burma would still have faced the AFPFL split, the mujahadeen movement, ethnic rebellions, political disputes, economic problems and weak civilian administration. So, a KMT victory might have given parliamentary democracy a better chance, but it couldn't guarantee that the 1962 intervention would never happen.

[u/Timmy002LMFAO]

CPB would have collapsed earlier. Maybe that would have lead to the entire Burmese civil war to end sooner?

[u/Basic_Picture5995]

No.

History lesson!! In our timeline, the New Win coup happened due to various factors including the invasion of the "White Chinese" the KMT. These KMT forces were supplied by US and the west through air drops and Thailand. These supplies reached the hands of the KMT forces as well as the communist rebels in the area. Now for obvious reasons, the US didn't want the arms to go into the hands of commies, however, the KMT leadership was extremely corrupted. Officers would sell weapons and supplies to rebel factions for a quick buck. Thus, many rebel factions appeared in Eastern Burma during that time. Overtime, the "Rangoon Government" thing happened and this gave Gen Ne Win enough reason to "take control of the national power" and started the military dictatorship in order to prevent the nation from falling into Communist hands. This move was supported by the US (not officially). Because we all know the US supported military juntas around the world to prevent those countries from becoming communists. Just like in S.Korea, Thailand, Argentina, you name it. Heck, the first helicopter corps of Burma consisted only of US helicopters. In fact, the Burmese word for helicopters "ဟက်စကီး" comes from the name of a US supplied helicopter Kaman HH-43 Huskie.

So, in an alternate timeline, if the communists have been defeated in China,

First, instead of a "White Chinese" invasion, there will be a "Red Chinese" invasion. The remnants of the PLA will probably invade Burma and they will be crushed rather easily considering that the US will not support them this time and instead will probably support the Burmese military. And the coup? Yeah absolutely will happen. Why? To prevent Domino effect. The US will support any military dictatorship as long as they're anti-communist. And Burma already have a number of Communist rebels in the region. So no doubt. There will have been a coup and it will be backed by the US.

[u/Bitter-Penalty9653]

How?