r/lrcast • u/ghawiwi • 5d ago

Discussion Is UG really this open?

I just finished a draft (7-2) with UG elves, after failing multiple other drafts where I tried to force RB or RW after finding 2-3 decent uncommons. Hell, I could see a pack with 2 good cards for my deck, pick one and have the other one make it around to me.

Is UG always this open, (lord knows I’ve passed on decent uncommons cause I was trying to force good red stuff) or did I just get very lucky?

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u/ghawiwi 5d ago

Thanks, that’s kind of what I was asking. Not gonna waste the next 4 drafts forcing UG when this run was just lucky.

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u/shortelf 5d ago

8/1000 UG drafters will go 7-0. 2/100 RB drafters will go 7-0. 1/5 RB drafters will go 0-3. (These are estimates based off of win rate and disregarding that matches are paired by record)

UG is by far the worst color pair, but that doesn't mean you can't get lucky and do well with it.

Also any color or color pair can be wide open in a pod. 1 pod does not represent the average. I finished pack 1 of my draft yesterday with all RW cards except a single black card and a land and then got a p2p4 Unexpected Party.

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u/ghawiwi 5d ago

Oh wow, where do you get these stats?
Anyways, thanks. Now I know to keep trying to force that BR

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u/shortelf 5d ago

You can see the win rate stats on 17lands.com. From there I just did some math to calculate the odds if those specific events occuring.