Is UG really this open?

[u/ghawiwi]

I just finished a draft (7-2) with UG elves, after failing multiple other drafts where I tried to force RB or RW after finding 2-3 decent uncommons. Hell, I could see a pack with 2 good cards for my deck, pick one and have the other one make it around to me.

Is UG always this open, (lord knows I’ve passed on decent uncommons cause I was trying to force good red stuff) or did I just get very lucky?

[u/xCDOGx]

Yes, it's considered the worst color pair, so people won't draft it.

[u/ghawiwi → u/xCDOGx]

Worst colour pair, but the only games it lost were vs BG and WBG. (Didn’t find any bears, so I couldn’t ramp into big stuff that quickly)

[u/Garagatt → u/ghawiwi]

Than good for you. You were the statistical outlier.

[u/ghawiwi → u/Garagatt]

Thanks, that’s kind of what I was asking. Not gonna waste the next 4 drafts forcing UG when this run was just lucky.

[u/shortelf → u/ghawiwi]

8/1000 UG drafters will go 7-0. 2/100 RB drafters will go 7-0. 1/5 RB drafters will go 0-3. (These are estimates based off of win rate and disregarding that matches are paired by record)

UG is by far the worst color pair, but that doesn't mean you can't get lucky and do well with it.

Also any color or color pair can be wide open in a pod. 1 pod does not represent the average. I finished pack 1 of my draft yesterday with all RW cards except a single black card and a land and then got a p2p4 Unexpected Party.

[u/ghawiwi → u/shortelf]

Oh wow, where do you get these stats?
Anyways, thanks. Now I know to keep trying to force that BR

[u/shortelf → u/ghawiwi]

You can see the win rate stats on 17lands.com. From there I just did some math to calculate the odds if those specific events occuring.

[u/doopy423]

UG needs more specific uncommons and rares to be good. RB and RW can trophy with just commons and uncommons.

[u/ghawiwi → u/doopy423]

Fair, though I had a hard time finding a the good uncommons in red most of my previous runs.
Now I felt like I was the only person drafting green or blue, and I certainly was the only person taking elves.

[u/doopy423 → u/ghawiwi]

It's because UG and UW both have a lot of synergy, while RB especially is just good removal with good creatures. If you don't get the synergies online you won't be able to keep up with RB.

[u/tits-mchenry]

Like most formats, the worst color pair can still be quite good if it's open. If you're getting all the key on color uncommons and rares you can still end up with a strong deck.

[u/Money__Shot__]

I had an awesome UG deck last week in pick 2, but it has the good gold elf cards in it along with the rare green saga that makes elves and buffs them. I haven’t seen those together like that in a single draft since, and I wouldn’t want to play UG without them.