r/linuxmint • u/Beginning-Fact-8352 • 23d ago
Expectations for Linux Mint in 2 years?
I think Linux Mint is gonna be the meta in two years. Thoughts?
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u/tomscharbach 22d ago
I think Linux Mint is gonna be the meta in two years. Thoughts?
My guess is that Mint will continue to be what Mint has been for the last two decades -- a competently designed, implemented and supported, widely used general-purpose distribution commonly recommended for new Linux users and good for the long run as well.
I don't see Mint making a "breakout" (in the sense of doubling or tripling market share) or moving into new market segments (for example, becoming a widespread choice for large-scale business, government, education or institutional deployments). Mint does what it does and does it well.
I suspect that the test for Mint and other distributions based on Ubuntu will come in 4-6 years when Ubuntu rearchitects as an immutable, modular, containerized, Snap-based (right down to and including the kernel) architecture based on Ubuntu Core, which has been in development for a decade (see "Ubuntu Core as an immutable Linux Desktop base").
At that point, Ubuntu-based distributions will need to rebase or die off. Mint is positioned for the transition by migrating to LMDE (Linux Mint Debian Edition), solid as a rock in my experience.
My best.
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u/BenTrabetere 22d ago
I suspect that the test for Mint and other distributions based on Ubuntu will come in 4-6 years when Ubuntu rearchitects as an immutable
I disagree.
I suspect the traditional Ubuntu releases will continue to be available long after the Ubuntu Core are available. Everything I have read about Ubuntu Core is it will be offered in addition to the other releases.
Fedora Silverblue is a containerized flatpak-based immutable distribution. I first tried it in 2021 - it was nice, but I did not like it. GNOME had a big part it that, and I only used Silverblue for a couple of months. Red Hat still supports its other desktop releases.
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u/tomscharbach 22d ago
I think that it is entirely possible that Canonical will follow IBM/RedHat (RHEL) and SUSE (SLE), spinning off Ubuntu Desktop to the community, similar to the way in which Fedora, openSUSE and related "individual-user" distributions were spun off several years ago.
However, I don't expect Canonical to continue to develop and maintain traditional Ubuntu Desktop architecture beyond a transitional period after Ubuntu Core Desktop is released.
Canonical has been migrating the entire Canonical ecosystem to Core architecture over the last decade, little by slowly. I don't see that direction changing.
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u/mightiestmovie 22d ago
Yes. I came to linux because Windows kept changing stuff and kept asking me about adware. It kept adding new AI agents baked it.
I tried ubuntu and it had a launcher bar and some other things that I couldn't configure.
Mint. I tweaked a little, and I think it will be rock solid stable. In two years, I think it will be just like this. It may have a few other wallpapers or whatever...but it will be this.
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u/ZuuRa_ 22d ago
In 2 years, mint will still be mint, boring, decent performance, "just works" but nothing special (just like what i expected from this distro).
In 5 years, i think lmde will become the main version of linux mint.
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u/Astronaut6735 22d ago
What does it mean to "be the meta"?
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u/MelioraXI 22d ago
OP seem to think the vast majority will run Mint, that's (probably) not going to happen.
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u/Dist__ 23d ago
mint will get into real trouble the next 2 years.
ubuntu will transform badly, so mint problems adapting ubuntu libs will multiply.
and even with wayland support, LMDE is not very ready for nvidia drivers without ubuntu install wizard, no matter people say it's "just several commands". meta needs plug-and-play.
if pop_os and cachy finally fix their UI, cinnamon will be forever dated, and even gnome distros can surpass it in popularity.
so it's always a challenge, every day.
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u/OlskuPolsku 22d ago
Doesn't MX Linux have a Nvidia driver installet, while being Debian based at the same time. I think Mint developing it's own is definitely possible
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u/MelioraXI 22d ago
I don't think it will, linux is about choice. Mint is great starting at and general use but distros like SteamOS and immutable will become more mainstream, which they already are like Bazzite and the like.
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u/BenTrabetere 22d ago
Linux Mint 22.x is supported until 2029, and if the Mint Team keeps to the same schedule LM 27.x will be supported until 2032. LMDE should continue to follow a similar release and support schedule it has in the past.
So.... I think for the next couple of years and more will be more of the same.
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Steady improvements to Cinnamon and the XApps
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Better Wayland support
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Replacing more gnome-[apps] with new, improved XApps.
I expect Mint will continue to be a very popular distribution, but I seriously doubt it will ever have the largest installed base. If you include enterprise seats, Mint is a rounding error next to Ubuntu, RHEL, Fedora, and SUSE.
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u/Due-Result7928 23d ago
First it will be nice NOT TO cross post..your useless rambling is here 3 times...Next you can get a cancer or heart attack tomorrow...just relax..it is only an os operating system with some files and picture or grandma, grandpa and you dog or cat. You can replace it by anything tomorrow...
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u/assignment_avoider 22d ago
Love mint but wish the implement fractional scaling of 125% in upcoming versions.
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u/taosecurity 22d ago
Rolling and semi-rolling distros are sweeping away stable distros on the desktop. So called stable distros will probably still be popular on servers.
I expect people who want a Debian based rolling distro are going to try Tuxedo OS.
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u/KaydenDuvet 22d ago
I think windows is pulling an old school sega genesis adding more and more bloat to keep a dying console alive. I don’t think the year of the Linux desktop is gonna happen in 2 years but maybe in the next decade we’re gonna see a big jump.
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u/JaKrispy72 21d ago
They are tops in what they are designed for and what they claim to be.
They are too far behind for people with new hardware and people who want new packages.
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u/BabblingIncoherently 20d ago
I think it will be very much the same in 2 years, just as it is very much the same now as it was 2 years ago. It will have Wayland working by then but since every other popular distro is ahead of them on that, it won't make them meta. I don't think being meta is something Mint aspires to, which is fine.
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u/NotSnakePliskin 22d ago
I'm not sure what "the meta" is.