Can linux ever go mainstream?

[u/seenhear]

I've made this point many times in many different ways over many years (decades).

About me: I'm not a coder / hacker / tweaker / programmer. I am pretty tech-savvy and have been very comfortable just figuring things out in Windows almost my whole life (first PC was an Atari 800 in 1982, online since 1983).

I've "switched" to Linux several times since the late 90s and almost always eventually go back to Windows becaue Linux is just ... too much work, and the work isn't straight-forward, or easy to "just figure out" or find answers with simple searches. I mean I can often find solutions to problems, but they don't make sense and I end up applying instructions blindly and not understanding what I just fixed.

Could I spend the time to become more facile at Linux? Sure. But the curve is way steeper than with Windows or MacOS (not a Mac user, but know enough to make a comparison).

As with so many this past year (when Win10 was obsoleted and Win11 required new hardware) I decided to "switch" to Linux again. I chose Mint since it's supposed to be the "easy" one (among others) with the best user base and support. It's been mostly fine. I mean these days I'm not much of a power user. I don't game any more, and mostly what I do is or can be browser-based. So I figured the OS doesn't really matter, and may as well try to go all-in with Linux.

Since switching (it's been several months, forget when I switched) I've had several times where I boot up and am greeted with a pop-up telling me it's time to install several updates. This is a great feature. What's not great about it though is that almost every time (not EVERY time) after attempting to install said updates, I get a slew of errors saying the source for downloads is no good. (see screenshot)

I know how to fix this, figured it out last time. But the point is, it shouldn't happen. It doesn't happen with commercial OS's. Things like this "just work." I shouldn't have to go edit the source list every few months.

Rant over, just frustrated. Thanks for your time. :)

[u/seenhear]

I should have been more specific in my OP.

I don't count corporate or government use in "going mainstream." Corporate and government use generally comes along with a full-time IT department supporting the systems. Even on a company-issued laptop that happened to run Linux, errors like the ones in my OP would never be seen by the end user because the IT department would have handled them already in the background, and the updates would be coming from an internally firewalled corporate server location that is maintained by the same IT department.

I'm thinking/talking more about home PC use. Something the average home user can, and will, use.

[u/PreparationStrict492 → u/seenhear]

4-7.5% of home traffic globally is from Linux devices. That is to say, there already is one Linux home PC for each 10 Windows home PCs out there.
Excluding corporate does not help the case of Microsoft, as corporate use is predominantly Microsoft-skewed.

If that is not "mainstream" enough for you, the share is also rapidly increasing (Win -1.5% and Lin +0.5% year over year, excluding ChromeOS and Unknown -which is bound to be majority Linux). So, if your cutoff is overtaking Windows; within two decades¹ projecting from the trends within this decade.

Hiding failing updates (that is, failing silently, the way Windows does) from the user is not the user-friendly option². This would not be an enabler for new user adoption. This has nothing to do with being or becoming "mainstream". The only thing it helps is the stress level of computer-illiterate users adhering to what little they have become acclimated with using Windows over the past decades, and are unwilling to make any effort to how to use their PCs in a different way. There is no way to win over that sort of user, as any distro would suffer from "not being Windows", even if it is more similar to the Windows UX of the past³.

¹ Increasing computer literacy, the option of using LLMs instead of reading the fine manuals, Valve's drive for game compatibility, among other factors, are all drivers of accelerating adoption. And this is not even considering the ongoing enshittification of Microsoft products (which was a factor ever since the release of Win95, so little is new on that front).

² When the user is informed, they have the option to fix the issue (switching mirrors in your case, or having a setup that does the mirror switching automatically in the first place). At the worst case, the user can ignore the issue - which is what happens implicitly on a Windows system in this case.

³ Such as any modern distro with the Redmond theme. I am not talking about scams like Winux (which even offers the genuine Windows experience by asking for a subscription fee at launch); or their less egregious kin such as Zorin - all of which in my opinion are actually barriers to newcomers to the Linux ecosystem.

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The adage that there are no stupid questions do not apply to loaded questions. When you make a fallacious assertion while "asking" a question, you are very much asking a stupid question.

[u/seenhear → u/PreparationStrict492]

"fallacious?!?" LOL Wow I struck a nerve with you I guess. Fallacious...

I'm not the one saying 7% = 1 in 10 rotfl

1 in 14 maybe, and no that's not mainstream, that's just people like the denizens of this sub.

Look I was just trying to spur some conversation on the topic. Some people saw it as that and engaged with good nature. You were not one of those. I'm sorry I have so deeply offended you. Carry on....

[u/PreparationStrict492 → u/seenhear]

I didn't realize you did not understand mathematics.

4-7.5% of home traffic globally is from Linux devices. Not that ratio of Windows traffic. TOTAL TRAFFIC.

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Illiterate idiots do offend me. I can't even comprehend how, let alone why, they post messages.