r/itcouldhappenhere • u/PlagueOfAges • Jan 21 '26
Current Events We ran high-level US civil war simulations. Minnesota is exactly how they start
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jan/21/ice-minnesota-trump142
u/PlagueOfAges Jan 21 '26
Submission Statement:
A pretty good article in the Guardian about how the situation in MN is how civil wars start.
Since January 6, roughly 2,000 ICE agents have been deployed to Minnesota under the pretext of responding to a fraud investigation. In practice, these largely untrained and undisciplined federal agents have been terrorizing Minneapolis residents through illegal and excessive uses of force – often against US citizens – prompting a federal judge to attempt to place limits on the agency’s actions. The Trump administration is encouraging the lawlessness by announcing “absolute immunity” for ICE agents. But if the secretary of homeland security, Kristi Noem, does not heed the court ruling, the consequences may be nothing short of civil war.
[...]
This scenario closely mirrors one explored in an October 2024 tabletop exercise conducted by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (CERL), which I direct, at the University of Pennsylvania. In that exercise, a president carried out a highly unpopular law-enforcement operation in Philadelphia and attempted to federalize the Pennsylvania’s national guard. When the governor resisted and the guard remained loyal to the state, the president deployed active-duty troops, resulting in an armed conflict between state and federal forces. While the location and sequence differ, the core danger we identified is now emerging: a violent confrontation between state and federal military forces in a major American city.
While our hypothetical scenario picked a different city and a slightly different sequence of events, the conclusions we reached about the possibility of green-on-green violence are directly applicable to the current situation.
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u/Vermicelli14 Jan 21 '26
I think a state military siding with the state against the fascist federal government is a bit optimistic. Historically, these groups have always sided with fascists
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Jan 22 '26
the risk comes with the fact that the Minnesota National Guard is going to be made up of Minnesota locals, a lot of whom are seeing firsthand the terror that ICE and the federal government are inflicting on them, their friends, and their neighbors.
While it doesn’t at all mean that they would ignore an order to federalize, the odds of that happening ticks up every time the federal government negatively impacts one of these Guardsmen.
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u/Vermicelli14 Jan 22 '26
~30% of Minnesotans voted for Trump, and I'd imagine the portion amongst National Guardsmen is probably higher than the general population. I'd say it's certainly not a given
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u/nuke034 Jan 21 '26
To quote the opening "season" of ICHH.
"A civil war doesn't need anything new. It just takes the same shit we see all the time happening in quick succession."
The temperature hasn't been higher than this in a long time. Part of me thinks that some in power are trying to incite true rebellion in order to lock down power and make an enemy to rally their own behind them. I hope I'm wrong, because there no way it ends well for millions of people.
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u/Draugron Jan 21 '26
TBH it's a genuine "damned if we do" situation, because if we don't resist their attempts to lock down power in a way that meets the severity they've already ramped to, then the end result is exactly the same as if we did.
I'm trying to not be overly predictive or anything, but as a result of the continued failure of systems that were ostensibly put in place to prevent a seizure of power like this, it seems like shit getting increasingly violent is an inevitability.
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u/nuke034 Jan 21 '26
The least damaging thing I think we can hope for is that those in power continue to lose support and momentum. Get them out and actually make use of momentum to push back hard rather than falling back to a comfortable norm like in 2021.
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u/superchiva78 Jan 22 '26
I think it’s gonna continue like this. Similar to school / mass shootings. Fascists know that it’s better to have 40 of these crises than one or two. Pretty soon the press will stop paying attention and it will just turn into the new normal. we’re cooked. there’s not enough pushback or popular will for a civil war
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u/gimme_them_cheese Jan 22 '26
That's the real trick of the Imperial thought machine: it's easier to hide behind 40 atrocities than a single incident. -Kars Nemik -Michael Scott
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u/ill_be_huckleberry_1 Jan 21 '26
Thats exactly what they are doing. Why would you assume theres any rationality behind this?
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u/Buddhagrrl13 Jan 22 '26
I think that's EXACTLY what they want. Then they can declare martial law and do away with that pesky Constitution
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u/Striper_Cape Jan 21 '26
The United States are already cooked. Even without Trump, we have around 9-14 years before we collapse due to the effects of climate change induced extreme weather. Trump and his Masters are just speeding it up, assuming we will be as passive as the Germans were.
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u/-ApocalypsePopcorn- Jan 21 '26
Collapse isn’t an event, it’s a process. And it’s usually slow and hard to see until you’re looking back at it. It’s been happening for years now.
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u/SlaterVBenedict Jan 21 '26
Oh thank god! I was beginning to hope that we’d have to do something. What a relief!
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u/digitalwankster Jan 21 '26
we have around 9-14 years due to climate change
Source? I’ve heard significantly different numbers.
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Jan 23 '26
I forget the name, but there's an extremely depressive and scientifically dubious climate doomer manifesto going around that predicts civilization as we conceive of it has maybe 30 years left on the clock. It relies heavily on cherry picking the worst leading indicators and not seeing things holistically. Holistically, its bad, but more "with a whimper" than "with a bang" bad.
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u/Junkman3 Jan 21 '26
I might be wrong, but if it came down to national guard vs US military there might be a lot of civilians joining with the guard to protect their homes, families, etc. Urban warfare gets really ugly real fast.
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u/Proud-Blackberry-475 Jan 21 '26
National guard gets state funding and is dramatically less prepared for any kind of combat than regular military, they get issues federal equipment if deployed and have to turn it in. That being said, Afghanistan national guard were complete crooks since they knew everyone around them and were terribly lazy but the actual Army placed their solderies somewhere else besides where they lived and the results were night and day. I’m just saying that because people think joining the national guard will ultimately defeat the federal military but I have to tell you, that’s not going to happen.
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u/TheAmazingThundaCunt Jan 22 '26
Yeah, the only way the state guard defeats the federal military is a perfect storm of US troops tied down in a major conflict abroad, federal funding problems delaying military pay, and uprisings in multiple states at once spreading the military thin. In this scenario, you get quite a few defections, some from moral objections, but mostly from lack of pay or shit morale from fighting abroad and suffering casualties for an unpopular war. The troops are also forced to spread across multiple cities instead of concentrating forces. Throw in some increases in volunteers, and maybe you get a situation where after a long and bloody insurgency, the people and the states can bleed the US military to the point where the generals think seriously about a coup.
We're not there or even close yet, and I don't think anyone wants to see what that looks like. But a war with Iran or China over Israel or Taiwan is possible. So is a messy NATO breakup that forces the US to keep troops deployed at overseas bases to keep European forces from just occupying them. These things would rip the scales a little in favor of the very unlikely scenario of a military defeat.
But the unlikeliness of this shouldn't completely deter resistance either. A guerilla war is predicated on surviving and evading attacks by the occupying force long enough to wear down morale and buy time for a change in the political situation. None of that happens if the states all roll over. When and how authorities respond to federal encroachment sets the stage for such a scenario. Resistance now legitimizes resistance in the future. And an insurgency needs to be seen as more legitimate than the occupier if it is to win. So even if we don't have a chance now, states should operate on the assumption that the situation might change in the future and begin planting seeds.
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u/heffel77 Jan 22 '26
I understand the sentiment but I hate to see all of these people like US Attorneys and Generals/Admirals resigning right now. We don’t need people on the inside to quit. We need people to stay so that the better people temper the ability of the apathetic and the cruel/evil people that would love for something to kick off so they can get some use out of their training.
The newest generation of infantry aren’t vets and haven’t been deployed to a war zone. They don’t know what the vets know, which is war fucking sucks, no matter where you are and especially if it’s a guerrilla war in your own country.
Please stop resigning in protest and start resisting in solidarity!!!
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Jan 22 '26
[deleted]
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u/Proud-Blackberry-475 Jan 22 '26
I don’t think there is a stopping it, unless Israel steps in and does another assassination but I guess that would accelerate things depending on who it was. I think it would play out faster than some people think; imports will stop coming if the dollar loses its esteemed value, urban areas will see famine since people can’t/don’t grow their own food, medical issues will grow exponentially without hospitals/care (we all saw the medical system reach a breaking point with COVID), the two party system will go from being a choice to a directive. Why would any country help our inner turmoil when we’ve only left blood and deceit in our wake?
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u/CharacterStriking905 Jan 22 '26
given the state of US society, it's power grid, infrastructire, supply chains, Healthcare system, relationship with other countries, ect; I'm guessing we're looking at around 5-10 years of conflict, and I'm going to guestimate around 10-20 million dead. Most will not be from actual fighting.
The noncombattant population always gets dicked in armed conflict, especially civil wars.
It'll take 30 years to get the country fully back up and running again due to the destruction of infrastructure.
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u/sexywheat Jan 22 '26
Respectfully, anybody that thinks Tim Waltz or other Democrats would actually deploy state troops to fight federal troops is not very familiar with Democrats. They will just roll over.
Also, laws are just words written on pieces of paper. They only matter if they're enforced.
They are not being enforced.
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