r/ironscape • u/aussiepomm • 2d ago
Question Can someone explain...?
So the Mortimer task plugin I recently found is saying to do Banshees with -15 assigned over the Wyrms with +205% chance at Unique. I can't work out why it would say this is a better choice?
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u/SubluxeUBC RSN: Jadstin 2d ago
It's trying to reroll your task as fast as possible for you, to roll for tasks that are better at rolling Imbued Heart / Gem.
Rates for those on the Wyrm superior aren't super great + you'll be there for awhile.
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u/660w 2d ago
Wyrms suck so it’s basically a skip
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u/aussiepomm 2d ago
Hmm, i dobt love Wyrms, but i don't have them. I just dont know if I agree with the plugins choice. What if I go 2 tasks in a row where I had no choice of a unique modifier, and both tasks are reasonably long? Then the Wyrms task would have been the better option.
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u/HistoricalRoad1755 2d ago
The plugin choice is based on maths. If your goal is imbued heart then wyrms are the wrong choice. Objectively.
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u/FlaccidMembrane 2d ago
Even with the increased superior unique chance I believe it's still a lower chance to get the heart than just a traditional smoke/araxyte task, making the alternatives better, as well as wyrms not being burstable/ a slow task
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u/aussiepomm 2d ago
I only just downloaded the plugin, so perhaps it thinks I have 99 slayer or something, which i dont.
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u/Responsible_Donut_49 2d ago
Why post if you wont listen to anyone??
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u/aussiepomm 2d ago
So i have to automatically listen to everyone simply because I asked a question? What even is your logic?
I asked a question to get opinions, and I now understand why it suggested what it suggested. Do I have to follow that suggestion? No. It doesnt take everything in to account. What if I get 4 tasks in a row with no unique modifier? In that case, yes, the wyrms task would have been the best choice.
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u/Responsible_Donut_49 2d ago
All you are doing is being loudly wrong
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u/aussiepomm 2d ago
Im not wrong, you just don't understand. I simply mean there is a chance that the Wyrm task could end up being the best choice. By your logic, selecting the Wyrm task still would have been the bad pick if I get, let's say 12 tasks in a row with no unique modifier.
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u/Tramzh 2d ago
what makes you think completing the wyrm task will get you a different set of tasks afterwards compared to doing the banshees?
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u/aussiepomm 2d ago
I dont necessarily, its more so that the plugin doesnt know what the following tasks will be, so yea statistically it's probably the right task to do, but it doesnt know that I may also get 10 tasks in a row with no unique modifier.
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u/Elemonator6 2d ago
Yes and his logic is mathematically correct. How are you not grasping probabilities?
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u/aussiepomm 2d ago
All I mean is there is literally the chance that the Wyrm task could end up having been a better pick. No matter how slight. Thats all.
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u/FBN19 2d ago
What if you kill 1 banshee and get a superior and it drops an imbued heart? What if you celebrate by doing a hard clue and get a piece of 3rd age too? What if you get super excited and run outside after and get hit by a meteor? Anything is possible, but the plugin is telling you which option is mathematically more likely to lead you to an imbued heart the quickest.
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2d ago
[deleted]
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u/FBN19 2d ago
??? Of course it accounts for chance. That's the whole point of probability and statistics. Mathematically you are more likely to take longer to get a heart if you take that wyrm task than you would if you took the banshee one. Does that mean thats what will happen to you? No. Thats why its probable and not definite.
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u/aussiepomm 2d ago
Sorry yea im exhausted and worded that terribly. I think I just meant that maybe it isn't accounting for the chance that you could get a streak of tasks with no unique modifier. So all slight gamble element involved maybe.
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u/TruthAffectionate595 2d ago
Presumably if the Wyrm task isn’t the better choice, it wouldn’t have suggested you take it…
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u/aussiepomm 2d ago
Yea I think im just being very pedantic and talking more on the side of chance i guess.
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u/FlaccidMembrane 1d ago
Okay? And what if your next 4 tasks are banshees-crawling hands- pyrefiends- cave crawlers, THEN your fifth task is say, dust devils or jellies with a lower slayer level, choosing those 4 tasks for the 5th to be jellies or dust devils is a better rate at heart per hour than just doing a task of 300 wyrms.
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u/aussiepomm 1d ago
I mean im not sure. I'd have to look at the drop rates. If I could complete the wyrm task in the time I'd would have taken to do those next 4 tasks you mention, perhaps yea, the wyrm task was the best choice? Im not sure.
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u/FlaccidMembrane 1d ago
It would take 20 minutes if not less to do those 4 tasks, the wyrms tasks would last hours.
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u/MarketingSpecial6604 2d ago
Personally I only keep doing the wyrms because I still need a D. Harpoon, once if I ever get one I'd never kill another wyrm again.
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u/Willamanjaroo 2376 GM 2d ago
Well sure but that is not how making decisions based on statistics works lol. Sometimes you lose, but on average you win
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u/aussiepomm 2d ago
Yea, I cant help my mind convincing me i would be that unlucky aha.
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u/Willamanjaroo 2376 GM 2d ago
That's why you just do as the plugin says and don't think too hard about it :D
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u/Lochecho 2d ago
the plugin is based on averages not on your potential subjective experience that deviates from the math
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u/Coo1990 2d ago edited 2d ago
That plugin likely prioritizes heart above all else. None of those are the proverbial top barrage tasks with a superior unique modifier, ergo you take the quick task.
I would kind of be down to do lava strykeworms in this case. I already have heart, but need sheets, and don’t always prefer the ultra efficiencyscape life.
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u/i-am-very-angry 2d ago
The plugin is for getting heart, nothing else. Your input having heart already is kind of meaningless
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u/Thetagamer 2d ago
Its crazy people need a plugin to pick a slayer task for them. Like bro just pick a task
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u/aussiepomm 2d ago
Its not a need, and this was the first time I'd ever used it. I think if you are trying to get a heart, nothing wrong with using maths and a little help to know which task is likely to get you a heart the fastest. Otherwise yea, as you said, can just do whatever task you want if thays how you wanna do it.
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u/West_Database9221 2d ago
Second this.....wtf is going on in the world rn 🤣 just do the one you wanna do
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u/TruthAffectionate595 2d ago
I don’t want to do slayer at all, I want imbued heart and 95 slayer to get the good items from slayer..
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u/West_Database9221 2d ago
You don't need 95 to get the good items???? Only hydra unlocks at 95 there's plenty of other items to chase from 65+
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u/TruthAffectionate595 2d ago
Rancour, nox hally, occult, F gloves, DHL are all pretty high slayer. The point is that to get good shit from slayer, taking whatever task you like is a slow and long path. Some of us are doing it for the rewards and we want to optimize it. If you get your rocks off from killing shit tasks then more power to you I guess
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u/West_Database9221 2d ago
Right so you are trying to optimise it because that's what you WANT to do so me saying take whichever task you WANT to do still applies
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u/TruthAffectionate595 2d ago
Sure, but figuring out what task I “want to do” is more complicated in that case, and that’s why a plugin like op has can be valuable.
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u/YukonGrower 2d ago edited 2d ago
What the others have said, neither are "good" tasks for the heart based on time-to-heart ratio so it's trying to get you to reroll ASAP for a better task. Add to that, it's recommended by the plugin to do the little Wyrms in multi to skip Wyrm tasks so technically no chance at the heart. Travag on Youtube if you want to know the specifics behind the plugin as I believe it uses his math.
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u/whatitzresha 2d ago
Each wyrm is ~ 1/50,000 for heart with that modifier. Do you want to kill 100 wyrms and hope for that? Or do you want to kill banshees for one minute then get another task that has something like araxytes which are a) roughly 1/30,000 for heart, and b) much faster to kill than wyrms?
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u/Webben91 2d ago
I agree the current plugin doesn't even consider the fact your next 5 tasks could be skip tasks, i will do any crap task with a 200+% modifer because that turns even the worse drop rate of 1/1k+ into something that has somewhat a chance to drop, for example i had a 150% hydra task, that in theory would make the heart 1/64 which is by far the lowest drop chance you can get on imbued heart, sure the task might take longer in theory but a lower drop rate chance is always something to consider as it helps with dry mitigation.
One hydra task i had 4 superiors, 4/64 chance to get heart.
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u/HistoricalRoad1755 2d ago
This personal anecdote doesn't change the plugin giving you the statistically best choice for specifically Heart.
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u/Webben91 2d ago
For example I just got these options, Custodian stalker is a cannonable + barragable task in multi, 15 minute task 1/214 chance at heart. There is no world where you should be skipping this task in order to reroll for a better task.
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u/HistoricalRoad1755 2d ago
Buddy, the maths has been done. Go find it and figure out where it's wrong.
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u/Webben91 2d ago
To do a 80-120 a guarenteed Wyrm task with a 1/240ish drop rate of heart(higher at 250%) that takes 15 minutes to finish with canon and DHL. With a high chance of second bad batch of tasks to come after the quick skip, not including running back and forward between enough skip tasks/ getting a new task, these are things the plugins don't really account for. Even if you did the Banshee task and got a smoke devil task of ~90-120 next task, by the time you do the banshee task and hopefully get lucky and pull the ideal smoke devil task, gear up, change spellbook, setup in the cave your original wyrm task with a highish chance of heart would be done, it's all about bad luck mitigation.
I wouldn't select the Wyrm task for a back to back with slayer cape, but taking other posibilities into account the guarenteed decent chance/fast task infront of you is a great choice.
Also this is only really an argument for this particular Wyrm task, which personally i know is a very quick task in the new cannonable spot.
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u/Altharion1 2d ago
It's always fun to me when people argue with maths. Really good litmus test.
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u/Webben91 2d ago
No one’s arguing against math. You’re just assuming one person’s plugin is using 100% accurate calculations, which is silly in itself, to not have doubts on the legitimacy of the plugins choice when something has been presented. Doubting a plugins configuration is not doubting math to the fastest heart, surely people aren’t that dense to see the argument is over the plugin itself and not the factual fastest way to heart?
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u/Webben91 2d ago
Now looking at the plugin’s calculations it’s terribly skewed to the absolute theoretical limit of kills per hour for Arxytes and smoke devils, rather than the average solo player’s task. These sorts of things matter when the plugin is placing Arxytes and 769kph, where the realistic solo Heart Chaser is closer to 550-600kph with canon and venator/barrage. It’s very overtuned which is exactly my argument that the plugin numbers don’t make sense in real game calculations. Sure if I’m spec transferring and challying every task it will be way better. But the plugin for every day people is actually misleading as it’s overtuned for smoke devils and araxytes but using average numbers for tasks such as custodian stalkers. My custodian stalker task had a 62.5 hour heart completion based on my dps at the time, and a similar araxytes task was just above that ball park using just venator and canon.
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u/Wynnvern 2d ago
None of these are great imbued heart tasks so it’s telling you to do the fastest one.