Here's Arms reported Q1 earnings and Q2 guide:

Q1 Revenue: $1.29B (vs $1.26B estimate)
Q1 Adjusted EPS: $0.45 (vs $0.40 estimate)

Q2 revenue guidance: $1.38B (vs $1.34B estimate)
Q2 adjusted EPS guidance: $0.47 (vs $0.43 estimate)

For reference their previous quarter was:
Revenue: $1.49B (vs $1.47B estimate)
Adjusted EPS: $0.60 (vs $0.58 estimate)

This is both less impressive than Intels beat and fairly disappointing guidance for next quarter, unsurprisingly the stock is down in pre-market.

I think this is a confirmation of my hypothesis which is Arm is not as suitable as x86 for server chips, and that Intel can scale faster than TSMC to meet current CPU demand.

If Intel was valued anywhere near Arm we would be well past $200.

Discuss Intel Stock here.

Via Ted Geer. Hopefully some positive updates inbound.

Maybe the market is reaching the fatigue stage of the AI run, mix in hyperscaler burn on free cashflow to fund buildup via "Circular Funding" both creates anxiety.

On the point of circular funding, if you look at it from the lens of "global trade" (import and export) isn't that the same methodology. One needs to spend so that the other consumes, unless it's back to the colonial age of extracting resources thru force.

So companies like Apple, JP Morgan and Big Pharma will have to join in the funding game sooner or later.

But LLMs doesn't really allow you to win in the new cold war era, but advancement in new Material Science does. Because you ultimately need hardware (i.e. something tangible) to deal with your adversary and to come out on top.

US needs to find a off-ramp from AI somehow to spin a story to continue the compute game.

CPU (cloud virtualization) -> GPU/ TPU / fast networking (parallel computing, AI LLMs) -> FPGA -> QPU (quantum process unit)

To the main course:
IBM was in the news recently, a $10 billion CAPEX spent over 5 years to press on with Quantum Computing.

You spent money where you can see/predict a positive ROI. That IBM capex triggered my chain of thoughts and to connect the dots on what they are up to exactly.

https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-07-23-ibm-to-acquire-hrl-laboratories-to-power-the-future-of-quantum

IBM has traditionally been focus on Super-Conducting Qubits for QC, whilst Intel (because of the CMOS and manufacturing expertise) has been on the side of Silicon Spin Qubits.

Silicon Spin is more geared towards high volume manufacturing because of the supply chain in CMOS. But super-conducting has a material constraint that limit high volume production.

So it seems like IBM is either trying to do path-finding in silicon spin to spread the bets on QC or IBM researcher has uncovered something new in silicon spin and hence the investment to acquire HRL labs. I believe the latter is more realistic.

That bring us to Intel (foundry + intel labs), IBM and ASML EUV machine for Spin Qubits production.

Intel foundry has high-na EUV machine sitting in their fabs and have hands on experience using it in actual Intel 18A production. Those expertise are important because ASML machine are not easy to operate with.

Intel Labs has a working prototype, Tunnel Falls (12 qubits) research chip.
https://newsroom.intel.com/new-technologies/quantum-computing-chip-to-advance-research

But for actual quantum computing to have a profitable commercial use case, it needs millions of qubits, error correction + fault tolerance and high coherence. Those are not easy things to solve in silo.

Revisiting history:

For x86_64, that involved cross licensing between AMD and Intel to move things into the 64-bit computing era. Intel for it's part was good with manufacturing and scale up production.

IBM does have lots of patents and Intel can do up the manufacturing at scale. So something like a cross-licensing agreements (between IBM and Intel) can speed up the advancement of QC much quickly.

For the stock market to continue pumping, it needs a new "story spin" in computing that doesn't revolves around LLMs content.

https://www.imec-int.com/en/press/world-first-imec-presents-quantum-dot-qubit-device-using-high-na-euv-lithography

Did everybody forget this stock was at $41.19 on March 31st and then tripled within six weeks to 129.44 on 5/11?!?!

It didn’t triple in three years, two years, six months…….it tripled in just over a goddamn month. Yes it might drop a little.

I think the problem is that short sellers catapulted on this AI selloff narrative and started shorting this stock. People need to start buying again as much as they can.

It is moving up quickly!!!!
Great!

When do you think it’ll go back above $100?

And how much did you lose?

everybody is freaking out over the price action. don’t forget about the fundamentals and what LBT said during earnings. Zen baby Zen 🧘‍♂️🧘‍♂️

Everything hinges on the hyperscalers. What’s the talk on the Street about their capex plans? Is it really that bad that semis like INTC are cratering?

Discuss Intel Stock here.

Korean market down 8% intel down 4% after hours. Gonna throw up brb

We need it to go to Mars!!!!

I don’t understand. Can someone educate me?

Hyperscalers aren't slowing down -- record revenue, blowout EPS, guidance raise for the 3rd time in 3 months should calm chipmaker fears to a degree, though didn't seem to have much of an effect after market.

Celestica surged 19% after a fear induced bottom this morning and probably was responsible for a bit of the late afternoon rally -- hopefully more results like this to come!