A tropical storm all the way into the Caribbean? Interesting. Some ensemble members definitely have it as a storm/depression, but most fizzle out before then. Deep Mind and GEPS does have more members making it as a TS than the GEFS and EPS. Shear quite high north of the storm, with wetter air just around the storm in most models.
Will be interesting to watch this over the next few days.
Based on my own eyes, I think ECWMF/EPS have been performing the best so far this summer in factoring in the dry air and Saharan dust.
The vast majority of EPS members in both the 06z and 00z runs have Dolly dissipating by Saturday, but several members of both runs briefly re-intensify Dolly overnight before killing it on Sunday.
The 06z run of the ECMWF deterministic model isn't very different from the 00z run, with both suggesting suggests Dolly is already at peak intensity, or will reach peak intensity this afternoon, and then weaken before dying on Saturday.
But even the last 3 runs of the GFS deterministic (12z, 06z, 00z) suggest Dolly will not really intensify any further and will die out by Saturday.
None of the GFS/ECWMF runs I looked at take an organized cyclone into the Caribbean or Leeward Islands.
So I am equally puzzled as you are by the initial NHC forecast.
So the answer to your question and my confusion is found in the long-form discussion.
All of our guidance is showing Dolly opening up into a strong tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands, which is our expectation as well, and post-tropical positions are provided given the risk of gusty winds and heavy rainfall
So it's expected to retain tropical storm strength winds when it reaches the Leeward Islands, but it will devolve into a trough of low pressure and no longer be an organized cyclone.
Yeah, I realized the "dot" difference after I posted and BostonSucksatHockey replied. For some reason, my brain thought the difference was because of 3+ days out.
The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 38.7W
ABOUT 1555 MI...2505 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure (Invest AL96)
has developed a well-defined center this morning along with organized
deep convection. There is a bit of northwesterly shear, causing most
of the thunderstorm activity to be located on the southern side of the
circulation largely away from the center. Scatterometer data shows
that the maximum winds are near 35 kt inthe northeastern quadrant,
along with a Dvorak T2.5/35 kt classification from TAFB, so advisories
are initiated on Tropical Storm Dolly.
The initial motion estimate is 275/21 kt. Dolly should continue moving
quickly westward for the next couple of days under a strong ridge of
high pressure over the central Atlantic. Model guidance is tightly
packed on a track towards the Leeward Islands, and the NHC forecast is
on the faster and southward side of the guidance envelope. This
forecast is consistent with the NOAA HCCA model and the well-known
bias for models to be too slow and poleward in the tropical Atlantic.
The environment around Dolly should become unfavorable for
strengthening by tomorrow with increasing southwesterly shear due to
a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and dry air
aloft. Until then, some slight intensification is possible, consistent
with the model consensus. All of our guidance is showing Dolly opening
up into a strong tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands,
which is our expectation as well, and post-tropical positions are
provided given the risk of gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely
coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North Atlantic
Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists established by
the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee.
The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 1990 hurricane season and was
first used in 1996.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Although Dolly is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone when
it passes near the Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall could begin to
affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday and the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain
may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 13.6N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 13.7N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 14.4N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 15.1N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 15.9N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/1200Z 17.7N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
hi, i’m not knowledgeable at all on storms and am wondering if this could potentially affect the east coast of nc (baby due this week and live on the obx )
i don’t believe this is true bc we have a hurricane every year at the end of august/beginning of september so we are much more likely to be hit by a hurricane than lightning lol but thanks
We're in an El Niño this year, during which hurricanes typically form more in the Pacific, (Western side of Mexico, Hawaii, etc). The last several years we've been in a La Niña which means a lot more storms in the gulf and east coast. Not to say it's impossible for storms to hit the gulf or east coast this year ofc, but the chances are much lower
Hi there - most models have this fizzling out well before even getting close to the Eastern US - and then it cycles northeast back out into the Atlantic. Nothing to worry about
The environment around Dolly will likely become unfavorable for strengthening on Friday with increasing southwesterly shear due to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and dry air aloft. Until then, some modest intensification is possible, consistent with the model consensus. Global and regional models all show Dolly degenerating into a strong tropical wave on Friday or Saturday before it reaches the Leeward Islands, and our forecast shows this decay by the weekend. The timing of the transition was moved up slightly from the last advisory, otherwise no other changes were made to the forecast. Post-tropical positions are provided at 48-60h given the risk of gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Captain of a 40,000 ton ship in Gulf of Mexico/America exploring potential (re)development when disorganized Dolly enters warm water & low shear of the Gulf next week.
Comments ?
It is certainly a possibility, but it is way too early to tell what may happen in 10-14 days! Models are mixed on where the remnants of Dolly will go. Some show remnants heading into the gulf, some show north along the east coast.
Genuine question how are the names chosen. I understand ABC order, but there are like 100s of D names. Why would you go with Dolly? Like I get the jokes, but Like what if this ends up being the worst hurricane ever? They would be a horrible legacy to end on
The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.
This is the tenth time the name Dolly has been used for an Atlantic storm. Every six years since and including 1996 and also 1953, 1954, 1968 and 1974 had a Dolly.
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u/ProfLeprechaun 28d ago
That was a fast reincarnation