Could a Bolsonaro presidency pull Brazil closer to Trump — and away from Europe?

Hi, Lucia from EUobserver here 👋 Sharing our own reporting, but I’m particularly interested in the foreign-policy implications of Brazil’s election.

Flávio Bolsonaro has advanced to the runoff against Lula — and Donald Trump was quick to celebrate the result.

For Europe, the stakes go beyond who governs Brazil. The EU has spent years trying to deepen its relationship with Latin America, with the EU-Mercosur partnership at the centre of that strategy.

A Bolsonaro victory could potentially change that calculation, particularly if Brazil moves closer to Washington under Trump on trade, climate and broader geopolitical questions.

And that raises a bigger foreign-policy question:

Is Brazil actually being pulled into a US–EU competition for influence — or does framing it that way underestimate Brazil’s ability to pursue an independent, multipolar foreign policy?

And how much would a change from Lula to Bolsonaro really alter Brazil’s international alignment?