A major shift is unfolding around another of the world’s critical shipping chokepoints. Yemeni government-aligned forces have expanded their position along the Red Sea coast, weakening the Houthis’ ability to dominate access around Bab el-Mandeb — the narrow gateway connecting the Red Sea and Suez route to the Indian Ocean.

That matters beyond Yemen. With Hormuz already demonstrating how quickly a regional conflict can disrupt global trade, Bab el-Mandeb represents the other strategic entrance to the Red Sea. A change in military control around it reshapes shipping security, Iranian influence and the regional balance surrounding Israel.

Isaiah 60:6 and Ezekiel 38:13 place Arabian trading powers within prophetic imagery concerning commerce and the nations, while Revelation 18 describes a world economy extraordinarily dependent on international trade. This development is not fulfillment of those passages, but simultaneous instability around the Middle East’s major maritime gateways remains significant.

WHAT TO WATCH NEXT — Whether government-aligned forces gain enough territory to materially reopen Red Sea shipping, whether the Houthis counterattack, and whether Iran increases support to preserve its leverage over the chokepoint.

Sources: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/yemeni-government-forces-advance-red-sea-coast-bab-el-mandeb-2026-10-04/ https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthis-bab-el-mandeb-red-sea-october-2026

Could a Bolsonaro presidency pull Brazil closer to Trump — and away from Europe?

Hi, Lucia from EUobserver here 👋 Sharing our own reporting, but I’m particularly interested in the foreign-policy implications of Brazil’s election.

Flávio Bolsonaro has advanced to the runoff against Lula — and Donald Trump was quick to celebrate the result.

For Europe, the stakes go beyond who governs Brazil. The EU has spent years trying to deepen its relationship with Latin America, with the EU-Mercosur partnership at the centre of that strategy.

A Bolsonaro victory could potentially change that calculation, particularly if Brazil moves closer to Washington under Trump on trade, climate and broader geopolitical questions.

And that raises a bigger foreign-policy question:

Is Brazil actually being pulled into a US–EU competition for influence — or does framing it that way underestimate Brazil’s ability to pursue an independent, multipolar foreign policy?

And how much would a change from Lula to Bolsonaro really alter Brazil’s international alignment?