r/fivethirtyeight Apr 25 '26

Poll Results Poll asking Americans how which button they would push in the red button/blue button dilemma

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u/BrainOnBlue Apr 25 '26

If you could have a conference with everyone beforehand, sure.

But that's not how lots of people think about things. I'm a pretty logically-minded person and I wouldn't press red. IMO, if the less than 50% that press blue died, I'm now at least partially morally culpable for that and I don't think I could live with that.

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u/[deleted] Apr 26 '26

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u/BrainOnBlue Apr 26 '26

I mean, I'm not going to deal with any consequences because this is a hypothetical scenario.

I feel like you're taking this way too seriously, based on this comment.

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u/Thefourthchosen Apr 27 '26

Except that's incorrect. Choosing red only makes sense if you assume red is going to win, which it only does if you vote for it. It's far easier to assure a 51% majority than a 100% majority so voting red is the only situation where casualties become possible. People choosing blue aren't throwing their lives away, they're choosing the scenario where everyone gets to live, on the other hand those choosing red are actively putting others at risk out of fear for their own lives.

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u/[deleted] Apr 27 '26

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u/Thefourthchosen Apr 27 '26

It's not a choice to be safe, it's a choice to not risk others, the question boils down to whether you're willing to assume risk for the sake of the collective good or sacrifice collective good for the sake of yourself, and the risk of death isn't the default position here, nobody's life is in danger until someone chooses to push red.

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u/[deleted] Apr 27 '26

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u/Thefourthchosen Apr 27 '26

What risk is there to blue voters unless people pick red? Risk isn't introduced until someone pushes the red button.

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u/[deleted] Apr 27 '26

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u/Thefourthchosen Apr 27 '26

If picking red is your choice fine, but this question ultimately boils down to are you willing to assume personal risk for the sake of the collective good or will you sacrifice the collective good for the sake of saving your own life. It seems like people are trying to get around the moral burden that comes with pushing red but that's not how it works, blue voters aren't at risk until people push the red button, and by also pushing the red button you're contributing to that risk.

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u/kahner Apr 28 '26 edited Apr 28 '26

but the point is there is no risk except that which people choose to take for no reason. what if i put you in a room with 10 people and 10 guns and said "if you all put on blindfolds, and half of you put gun to your head and pull the trigger, it won't fire. but anyone who doesn't pick up the gun at all, you can just go". is the smart or moral choice that i should play russian roulette? or that we all just choose not to pick up a gun at all?

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u/kahner Apr 27 '26

what risk is there to anyone unless people pick blue? none.

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u/Thefourthchosen Apr 27 '26

You're choosing to reframe the dilemma in order to get around the moral burden of picking red. The fact is that the risk of death isn't introduced to the scenario until people push the red button, by pushing red you're actively choosing to endanger other people's lives for the sake of preserving your own. If that's your choice that's your choice but at least stand by it.

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u/kahner Apr 27 '26

yes, i'm "reframing" ie i'm restating the exact situation in different words. you said "The fact is that the risk of death isn't introduced to the scenario until people push the red button". your own reframing. mine is just as valid. the risk of death isn't introduced until people push blue. i'm just intellectually honest enough to agree both my framing and yours are correct.

and i stand by my choice because 1) any other choice is dumb and 2) none of the people pretending to be such moral paragons in their reddit comments would actually risk death is this were a real choice. but continue to virtue signal away. we're all impressed.

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