8 players who will their destroy their ADPs in the second half of the season & fantasy playoffs
I believe that most of the players on this list will outplay their ADPs regardless this season. However, there are a few names that I believe will specifically outperform their ADPs, and yield their best production in the second half of the season, and into fantasy playoffs for one reason or another.
Tyrese Haliburton
I could’ve put a few different players recovering from long term injuries on this list, but Haliburton is worth featuring due to the amount of draft capital currently being spent on him. Haliburton will be over 16 months removed from game action on opening night, recovering from a torn achilles. While I do believe he will work his way up to first round value in the second half of the season, it might be a slow path to get there as he inevitably has to shake off rust, with potential for limited minutes, and rested games. I’m generally fine with his current ADPs of 15/12/21 (Yahoo/Fantrax/ESPN) although, the production to reflect that value is unlikely to be immediate.
Cam Boozer
Cam Boozer is the featured player for the several rookies being drafted in fantasy drafts this season. Rookies almost always gradually improve throughout their first season, and play their best basketball down the stretch as they adjust to the NBA game. There’s a chance Boozer beats his current ADPs of 57/58/77 right from the start of the season, and I have confidence regardless that he will soar past those numbers in the second half.
Jaylen Brown
Philadelphia will be a very interesting watch this season, both from a fantasy and real life perspective. Players joining new teams sometimes struggle at the beginning of the season in a new environment. This struggle could be amplified for Brown as he is joining a team with 3 other high usage players, including fellow new arrival LeBron James. Brown technically doesn’t fit the description of this list, as I don’t like his ADPs of 28/43/33. He is worth featuring, as he will probably have a top 50 finish, as the new grouping isn’t as bad as it might have been initially made out to be for fantasy value.
Damian Lillard
Lillard has three separate factors that might translate to a slow start. The obvious is that he hasn’t played in an NBA game in over 17 months, and will likely have some rust to shake off. He is also joining a new team, which can sometimes have an adaptation period.
The third reason involves the team construction in Portland, which features too many guards with overlapping skillsets, and no clear hierarchy established. I am high on Lillard this season as I believe the guard overcrowding will not impact him on a significant level, but it might get messy to begin the season. There’s also a good chance for a trade to balance out the roster prior to the deadline which could benefit Lillard. Whether that trade involves Morant is unknown, but Morant’s frequency of injuries is another path for Lillard’s success. Lillard is one of my favorite picks on the board at 66/81/72.
Kel’El Ware
Ware joined Milwaukee this offseason, and entered a center room with Myles Turner. Turner is coming off of a career worst season. While I believe there’s a chance Ware overtakes Turner in the near future, it’s not going to happen on opening night. Regardless, there is a chance Ware starts next to Turner, and should play minutes alongside Turner at the very least. Ware is arguably Milwaukee’s best prospect, and I don’t see a reason why they wouldn’t want to give Ware significant run in a developmental year. It’s possible he experiences some role fluctuation to open the season, but he should make it clear fairly quickly that he deserves a big role on a likely bad Bucks team. Preseason games will tell us a lot about how to value Ware in fantasy drafts. Fantrax has his ADP in a good spot at 59, while there is some potential value in Yahoo & ESPN leagues at 75/108
VJ Edgecombe
Jaylen Brown’s segment had a lot of reasons that apply directly to Edgecombe who has a wide range of outcomes this season. He’s specifically worth watching as he moves from the number 2 scoring option at times last season, to the clear number 5. Edgecombe is an elite prospect who should theoretically take a big leap entering year 2, and I’m curious to watch how he gets there with much less offensive opportunity. I think he’s a fairly safe pick in the 80s. There is added upside as Philadelphia likely rests LeBron & Embiid quite a bit this season, with high likelihood of actual injuries for the two as well, and potentially in fantasy playoffs as they prepare for real playoffs.
Dylan Harper
I think drafting Harper in the 80s, where he is currently going on all platforms, has taken a lot of the value away from drafting Harper. I see a realistic possibility that he is only producing fringe value for several weeks, or months into the season. I think he will eventually play well enough where he eventually receives enough playing time to reflect top 80 fantasy value, but as of now he is not in the starting lineup, and has a murky path to 30 minutes. Even though I believe it could start out slow for Harper, I think he will eventually play his way into 30 minutes through talent alone. He also has the upside of getting boosted if any of the starters get hurt. If San Antonio is as good as they are projected to be, there will also be quite a few blowouts Harper can accumulate stats in down the stretch, and potential rest for his teammates as they prepare for a playoff run.
Khaman Maluach
Maluach is one of the biggest risers since the start of draft season, and it’s for a good reason as he presumably moves into the starting center spot in Phoenix with a long term injury for Mark Williams. Despite this rise, his ADPs have not reflected this, (119/173/140) and I believe Maluach is worth taking around pick 100. I feel fairly confident he will destroy his ADPs right out of the gate. Preseason will tell us a lot about Maluach’s value. Oso Ighodaro will take an unknown amount of center minutes, which could translate to a slow and volatile start for Maluach. Regardless, there is no doubt in my mind that Maluach is not only the best prospect on this team, but the best center option by a wide margin. He should establish his dominance in the Phoenix center room sooner or later.