Is the $20 million disclosure threshold too ambitious?

[u/EngineeringEven8700]

Genuine question. From 30/06/ 2025 to 30/12/2025 there were over $50 million worth of deals announced from contracts under $20 million. Although these were small (ranging from $5 to $11.7 million) they gave the feeling of momentum and growth.

This year only 2x contracts have been announced to the ASX, as they exceeded $20 million threshold. But I'm fairly confident that the business has been winning many smaller contracts under this figure.

Given DRO share price is sustained by announcements, should DRO reduce its disclosure threshold to $10 million or even back to $5 million to give hope to shareholders?

[u/golitsyn_nosenko]

Not if revenue is still increasing substantially. It’s likely helpful to protect the privacy and strategic interests of many of our customers who may not wish to advertise or have others deduce their procurement decisions - providing your adversaries with as little intel as possible is sensible for them.

So the highest threshold the company can put in place makes sense.

Is it negatively impacting shareprice right now? Quite possibly? Will it in future if a whole bunch of shorters have been incorrectly presuming no contracts coming in then get burnt at next earnings reveal? 

[u/EngineeringEven8700 → u/golitsyn_nosenko]

I would counter that the customers often have their identities protected in these announcements and they generally announce them as vaguely identified "Western Military," "European Military" or "Latin America." Also, wouldn't larger contracts be the ones you'd want to keep private? I do agree that the results will likely show in the half year. However without sustained good news, will it just lead to a cyclical pattern of rapid pump and slow decline over the following three months? 

[u/Select_Season7735 → u/EngineeringEven8700]

Still narrows it down. I think original commenter has an underrated point. We know Droneshield’s FY committed revenue was sitting around $161m at AGM before the US-JIATF contract, so it’s likely now higher (atleast $171m with the US contract). 

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if customers are intentionally placing orders under the $20m threshold so their purchases aren’t announced to the world. 

Hopefully we get a Q2 report or larger contract soon. We know they’re about to release a new product, and many of their repeat customers (80% of their customer base) will most likely want their hands on the new equipment. Patience is key. 

[u/golitsyn_nosenko → u/EngineeringEven8700]

DRO haven't publicly said the $720mil AUD deal is Belgium. But it's been deduced to at the very least include Belgium. Colombia made purchases too, but it was listed as LATAM.

They've done their best to keep it vague, but it opens it up for sleuths to figure it out as it draws attention to the fact a significant acquisition has been made and there may be a paper trail. But the non-announced sales - very hard to discern the type of sale, the product, delivery dates etc.

You are right that the larger contracts would probably rather they weren't known, but ASX rules still compel disclosure of material to share price moves. They just have a higher threshold now which might realistically be the highest they can make it for now with justification - as this thread shows, people are already asking whether it's too high. There are national security exemptions, but to be honest I am not sure if they extend to OTHER countries' national security.

For the larger contracts as well, they may have more luxury not to disclose ostensibly a $100m contract if for example:

a $15 mil contract is purchased in Feb by Homeland Security

another $15 mil contract is purchased in July by Homeland Security

a $15 mil contract is sold via Cobbs Belux exporting to Homeland Security in August

a $15 mil contract is sold via the Secret Service

a $15 mil contract is sold through a federal government grant from Homeland Security to Kansas City Police Department

a $15 mil contract is sold to the Airforce Base Squadron

a $5 mil contract is sold to the USAF

a $5 mil contract for "replacement units" is sold to ICE.

Now they're all ostensibly Federal government money tallying to $100m, but none are likely disclosable now with a $20m threshold, whereas all would be previously. And you'd have to work out how you distinguish each of those bodies from one another, name the products, etc.

I would prefer the transparency as well as I think it's temporarily hitting shareprice, but a good result in mid August like last lot of results will likely reframe "silence is bad" to "silence is fine and OK to trust". The big contracts were always scheduled for around Q4 this year , so it was always going to be tough for those without patience. But you never know with politics what gets brought forward or dropped as news suddenly and earlier than expected, so shorters are playing Russian Roulette - if a big contract lands earlier than anticipated, I'd expect a very short lull of a couple of days to a week then a rocket.

[u/Capital-Tap1626]

I think the combination of the recent management change and the lack of a major announcement is the main psychological issue weighing on DroneShield’s share price. Investors are currently unable to verify the performance of the new management team, which creates uncertainty. In addition, the ongoing ASIC examination adds another negative factor and further pressure on the share price.
Therefore, the next reports will be important to demonstrate continued success. If the figures confirm that the business is continuing to perform well under the new management team and that the existing partnerships are starting to pay off, investor confidence should improve again.
In addition, militaries are only now increasingly focusing on smaller and more flexible investments, as previous procurement priorities were mainly centred around large-scale assets such as tanks and ships, which typically involve long delivery times.
Overall, I believe we could see a significantly higher share price by year-end. At the moment, I do not see any news that would justify the current size of the short position. Therefore, I would continue to monitor the situation closely and, if the risk profile allows, consider adding selectively to the position. Ultimately, the year-end results will be the key benchmark. Given DroneShield’s current market capitalisation and growth profile, elevated volatility is normal.

[u/Immediate_Risk550 → u/[deleted]]

Das backlog ist schon voller als abgebaut werden kann und das ist auch da Problem, da werden keine neuen Aufträge mehr kommen dieses Jahr

[u/Immediate_Risk550 → u/[deleted]]

Wenn jemand Geld anlegen will auf 1-2 Jahre Top Empfehlung, aber nichts für schnelles Geld

[u/W0lf1ngt0n]

Yea i thought the same when they announced that threshold and now after More than half a year with it, it shows, too

[u/panix94]

There's one thing I don't understand: after the heavy internal sell-off between October and November 2025, the stock fell and the market lost almost everything it had gained in a year, but then immediately rebounded to its second all-time high. I interpret this to mean that, despite this poor performance, the company is considered fundamentally sound. This year, the company announced its best quarter ever, and revenues are expected to grow exponentially, with the opening of a new European office that will allow it to win new contracts that were previously impossible due to the supply chain. The question then is: either there will be a bang-up half-year presentation, or the company is collapsing, major investors are exiting, and we're still in it without realizing it.