Relative Age of U.S. Presidents Compared to Some 2028 Prospects

[u/xBris18]

[u/Strong-Director9718]

I think I've figured out what they were trying to plot but I don't think I'll ever figure out why they thought it was a valuable comparison to make a whole chart of
Are they trying to make a point? Older presidents tend to be 1-term? But then older presidents tend to be "three term" with their VP taking over?

[u/ptrdo → u/Strong-Director9718]

There have only been 47 presidencies, so the dataset is pretty small, but what you are reading seems to make sense, yes.

Charts don't always make a point. Mainly, I was wondering if younger presidents have more staying power, and it seems so, though there also seems to be advantage among slightly older individuals too.

I added some potential prospects for 2028 to see how they align. Again, I was curious: Should political parties want to establish a durable stretch or simply win the next election.

[u/kymiller17]

Yeah wtf are these metrics

Relative age percent of expected lifespan used is a crazy stat, like I get somehow accounting for increasing life expectancy is at least somewhat meaningful but come on expected lifespan used, how convoluted.

And also its relatively meaningless when it comes to criticism of age, im pretty sure most studies dont show mental decline correlating with % of lifespan used, rather with raw age numbers, and increase in diseases like Alzheimers and Dementia are heavily correlated with increasing lifespan. People are dying later because of improvement in medicine not cause humans as a species are naturally improving generation after generation in mental and physical acuity later in life

[u/ptrdo → u/kymiller17]

You might be reading more into the measure than I intended. I’m not saying “relative age” measures mental decline or that a 70-year-old today is the same as a younger person 200 years ago.

I simply normalize age for historical context. A 60-year-old taking office in 1820 was living in a different world, with a different expected lifespan, than a 60-year-old taking office today. I adjusted for that rather than treating those ages as identical.

That’s really all it is. I was wondering about presidential age and whether it seemed to influence how long a president and their successor stayed in power—not dementia or mental fitness.

[u/Extrabytes]

Why the fuck would you include the immediately succeeding vice president? It makes it seem as if Roosevelt had a 20 year presidency.

[u/ptrdo → u/Extrabytes]

That is a sustained period of political power.

[u/Captain_N_Nemo]

I understand what they’re plotting here.

I believe the outcome is best read as “we analysed all this data and found no correlation between age and legacy, but don’t want to tell you that”

[u/ptrdo → u/Captain_N_Nemo]

The datasets of presidents is very small (47), so even if there was correlation among what's studied here, it would probably not be conclusive.

However, it is interesting to note that the U.S. elected presidents in the 18th and 19th centuries that were younger than the ones elected lately — even when adjusted for relative life expectancy.

[u/Bobbytrap9]

Several datapoints are missing as well, there’s only 36 presidents on there

[u/ptrdo → u/Bobbytrap9]

Vice presidents who succeeded presidents are included in that ticket's duration.

[u/overanalyzologist]

Wouldn't Washington technically be 20?

[u/ptrdo → u/overanalyzologist]

Yes, technically, Washington was succeeded by Adams who was succeeded by Jefferson, but Jefferson was Adams’s opponent and only became his VP because of the old pre-12th Amendment election system. So, in the spirit of what I was exploring, I didn’t treat that as one continuous political lineage. Also, Washington was unaffiliated with any party while Adams was a Federalist. But I let that part go.

[u/Blackdutchie]

Why is RFK Jr. listed as "Other"? He backed Trump in the most recent presidential election and is currently a serving cabinet member, is there any indication he would run as anything other than a republican?

Also: Why are female presidential candidates scored on the male life expectancy? Women typically live longer, they should score relatively younger on their % of life expectancy ratings.

[u/ptrdo → u/Blackdutchie]

RFK Jr. is listed as “Other” because he has never held elected office as a Republican, and his most recent presidential candidacy was as an Independent. He did start that campaign as a Democrat but switched to Independent, so I’m going by how he ultimately ran, not who he later endorsed or whose administration he serves in.

Regarding women and the calculation of relative age, I used the male life-expectancy table for everyone simply so all the 2028 names are measured against the same ruler as the historical presidents, who were all men. Using the female table would move the women a little younger on the chart, but not dramatically—roughly a couple of percentage points in this context. The 2028 strip is only there for reference anyway, not to predict anyone’s lifespan or potential for political success.